March 12, 2009
Team Offense, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Bobby Abreu
Photo: Icon SMI
The series on team offense continues with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
- Best lineup: 5.25 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 5.12 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 4.92 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 4.73 runs per game
The Angels scored 4.72 runs per game in 2008.
If Mike Napoli hits like Marcel projects, he'll be hitting much higher in the lineup by the middle of the season. The Angels lineup starts great, building OBA and power through the first third of the order. With his decreasing power, I like Bobby Abreu in the two hole. The middle third is just an out machine. True, the batters there can do some damage with the long ball, but there's no reason to pitch around anyone there, since they'll probably chase outside pitches anyway. Once again, for the majority of this lineup, putting the ball in play hard will be the key to success. That will help them score enough runs to win with a good pitching staff.
Other teams in this series:
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Why do so many of the optimal lineups feature one of the worst hitters batting third?
It's a good question, and I'm not sure I have the answer right. I think it has to do with dividing the lineup into two parts, 9-2 and 4-7. The 9-2 hitters get on base so much that even a poor hitter is going to drive some of them home. Four through seven aren't as good, so you need that extra good hitter before you hit the worst hitter at number 8.
