March 05, 2009
Team Offense, Chicago White Sox
The series on team offense continues with the Chicago White Sox. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. The results:
- Best lineup: 5.30 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 5.17 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 4.96 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 4.76 runs per game
The White Sox scored 4.98 runs per game in 2008.
Most managers devise a lineup that may not be mathematically optimal, but is close and makes sense in the traditions of baseball. The lineup analysis tool tends to put high OBA power hitters at the top of the order with a leadoff type hitter batting ninth. Here, however, Guillen's 1-2 hitters get lowered to 8-9 using the tool, suggesting Ozzie has his top and bottom a bit backward. You'll also notice that Pierzynski bats second in most of the worst lineups. Owens bats ninth, which is not a knock against him (second leadoff man), and Ownes-Getz at the top of the order gives the power in the middle more to drive in. If and when Getz proves himself able to get on base, I suspect there will be a flip in the lineup.
The power in the middle is impressive. Quentin and Thome serve the dual role of driving in the few runners they'll see in front of them and setting the table for the power behind. Dye and Konerko should each drive in 100 runs even if they don't hit that well, since Q&T should provide them numerous opportunities.
Other teams in this series:
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