March 03, 2009
Team Offense, Chicago Cubs
The series on team offense continues with the Chicago Cubs. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I use the team's averages from 2008. The results:
- Best lineup: 5.42 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 5.15 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 4.88 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 4.74 runs per game
The Cubs scored 5.31 runs per game in 2008.
The Cubs probable lineup is upside down. The five through eight hitters own better OBAs than the one through four hitters. While the Lineup Tool puts Bradley and Lee at the top of the order, if I were making out a more traditional lineup I'd put Theriot and Fontenot one and two, with Soriano's power bring up the rear of the middle of the order. Might it be possible that the Cubs score more runs in the second inning than the first this year?
Other teams in this series:
- Texas Rangers (see this entry for a full explanation of this system).
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So that's a 43.74 run difference (over 162 games) between the best lineup and the probable. Is that equivalent to roughly 4 wins?
Yes, it's about four wins.
That lineup just isn't correct though.
From all indications, to start the season, this is what it will be:
Soriano
Fukudome
Lee
Bradley
Ramirez
Fontenot
Soto
Theriot