Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
March 03, 2009
Team Offense, Chicago Cubs

The series on team offense continues with the Chicago Cubs. I plug the probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers, I use the team's averages from 2008. The results:

  • Best lineup: 5.42 runs per game
  • Probable lineup: 5.15 runs per game
  • Worst lineup: 4.88 runs per game
  • Regressed lineup: 4.74 runs per game

The Cubs scored 5.31 runs per game in 2008.

The Cubs probable lineup is upside down. The five through eight hitters own better OBAs than the one through four hitters. While the Lineup Tool puts Bradley and Lee at the top of the order, if I were making out a more traditional lineup I'd put Theriot and Fontenot one and two, with Soriano's power bring up the rear of the middle of the order. Might it be possible that the Cubs score more runs in the second inning than the first this year?

Other teams in this series:

  • Texas Rangers (see this entry for a full explanation of this system).

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Posted by David Pinto at 08:50 AM | Team Evaluation | TrackBack (0)
Comments

So that's a 43.74 run difference (over 162 games) between the best lineup and the probable. Is that equivalent to roughly 4 wins?

Posted by: john at March 11, 2009 03:55 PM

Yes, it's about four wins.

Posted by: David Pinto at March 11, 2009 05:12 PM

That lineup just isn't correct though.

From all indications, to start the season, this is what it will be:

Soriano
Fukudome
Lee
Bradley
Ramirez
Fontenot
Soto
Theriot

Posted by: Title at March 13, 2009 01:54 PM
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