March 10, 2009
Team Offense, Florida Marlins
Hanley Ramirez
Photo: Icon SMI
The series on team offense continues with the Florida Marlins. I plug the
probable lineup from CBSSportsLine into the
Lineup Analysis Tool, and fill in the numbers with
Marcel the Monkey projections. For pitchers,
I used the team's 2008 numbers. The results:
- Best lineup: 4.96 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 4.72 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 4.36 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 4.48 runs per game
The Marlins scored 4.78 runs per game in 2008.
Fredi Gonzalez and the Lineup Analysis Tool's best order both have a stretch of the lineup that goes McPherson-Pitchers-Maybin-Baker-Ramirez. Fredi's starts in the 8th slot, but the program starts it one batter sooner. That puts the hitters with the best OBAs 1-2 in the order, and Hanley's power still gets to pickup Maybin when the lineup circles to the top. It's nearly a .25 run difference, or 40 runs over a full season. That might be enough to get me to try batting the pitcher 8th.
I like this lineup, as everyone, except may McPherson either gets on base or hits for power. There's no truly bad hitter in this lineup. If their young pitchers stay healthy, this might turn out to be a very good team.
Other teams in this series:
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I think it's just as likely, if not more likely, that you'll see Cantu back at third and Gaby Sanchez at first (with McPherson as the left-handed bench bat). A straight swap yields a "probable lineup" of 4.74, slightly better than with McPherson, though it shakes up the "best" lineups past the Maybin-Baker-Hanley trio.
