For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.324 — Ronald Acuna batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.313 — Jacob Wilson batting at Michael Wacha.
- 0.313 — Austin Riley batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.309 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Logan Webb.
- 0.301 — Drake Baldwin batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.300 — Ryan O’Hearn batting vs. Jack Kochanowicz.
- 0.287 — Michael Harris II batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.286 — Gunnar Henderson batting vs. Jack Kochanowicz.
- 0.285 — Jose Ramirez batting at Luis Castillo.
- 0.280 — Marcell Ozuna batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.280 — Alex Verdugo batting vs. German Marquez.
Despite striking out 28% of the time, Acuna is mashing the ball. He owns a .450 BABIP and a .294 isolated power. With only 78 PA this season, it is a small sample size.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.313, 0.743 — Jacob Wilson batting at Michael Wacha.
- 0.324, 0.724 — Ronald Acuna batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.309, 0.724 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Logan Webb.
- 0.268, 0.714 — Luis Arraez batting at Ryne Nelson.
- 0.269, 0.710 — Aaron Judge batting at Garrett Crochet.
- 0.268, 0.705 — Jackson Merrill batting at Ryne Nelson.
- 0.300, 0.701 — Ryan O’Hearn batting vs. Jack Kochanowicz.
- 0.313, 0.700 — Austin Riley batting vs. German Marquez.
- 0.276, 0.699 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Luis Severino.
- 0.285, 0.698 — Jose Ramirez batting at Luis Castillo.
Wilson missed the last two games due to an injury, and I don’t see an updated status on the depth charts. It’s an 8 PM EDT start in Kansas City for the Athletics tonight. Acuna and Wilson tie for the consensus double down choice, but if Wilson doesn’t play, Freeman gets the nod as the double down pick. Freeman faces Webb quite a bit in their regular season careers. That resulted in a 14 for 37, .378, with five strikeouts and two walks. So Freeman puts the ball in play with authority against Webb.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
So, edging out Acuna 80 to 84.6% odds, Freeman, 86.67% odds, and Jacob Wilson 84.6% odds, and because it seems Wilson and Freeman are various states of injured, and Acuna just started his season, if you want alternatives for thought, I have Jose Ramirez, 85.71 to 90% odds, and Bobby Witt Jr 83.33 to 90% odds, as the highest percentage winners.