For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.313, 0.729 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
- 0.309, 0.709 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.298, 0.706 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.293, 0.685 — Andy Pages batting vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.290, 0.690 — Noelvi Marte batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
- 0.286, 0.691 — Chandler Simpson batting at Jake Irvin.
- 0.285, 0.681 — Shohei Ohtani batting vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.283, 0.695 — Yandy Diaz batting at Jake Irvin.
- 0.282, 0.707 — Bo Bichette batting vs. Quinn Priester.
- 0.282, 0.691 — Jose Altuve batting vs. Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.282, 0.685 — Jake Mangum batting at Jake Irvin.
The Reds sometimes sit Andujar versus right-handed pitching, so check to see if he is in the lineup today. Freeman is dealing with a minor injury, but did play Friday night.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.313, 0.729 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
- 0.309, 0.709 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.282, 0.707 — Bo Bichette batting vs. Quinn Priester.
- 0.298, 0.706 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.271, 0.706 — Luis Arraez batting at Taj Bradley.
- 0.272, 0.702 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Jack Flaherty.
- 0.283, 0.695 — Yandy Diaz batting at Jake Irvin.
- 0.282, 0.691 — Jose Altuve batting vs. Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.286, 0.691 — Chandler Simpson batting at Jake Irvin.
- 0.250, 0.690 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Merrill Kelly.
- 0.290, 0.690 — Noelvi Marte batting vs. Michael McGreevy.
The two systems agree on Andujar and Freeman on the top. If you are unsure of them, the next tier down would be Pena number one and Bichette as the double down. Note that Witt and Bichette own the two longest current hit streaks.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!