For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.332, 0.756 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Logan Allen.
- 0.331, 0.734 — Aaron Judge batting vs. Zach Eflin.
- 0.295, 0.688 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting vs. Kumar Rocker.
- 0.294, 0.682 — Paul Goldschmidt batting vs. Zach Eflin.
- 0.291, 0.694 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Emerson Hancock.
- 0.289, 0.707 — Jose Ramirez batting at Mitch Spence.
- 0.286, 0.701 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Aaron Civale.
- 0.284, 0.698 — Jeremy Pena batting at Jose Soriano.
- 0.283, 0.703 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Jake Irvin.
- 0.282, 0.686 — Alejandro Kirk batting vs. Aaron Civale.
Wilson and Judge project to exceptionally high hit averages against Allen and Eflin. Note that the longest hit streak in the majors right now belongs to Brooks Lee of the Twins. He stands at 19 games, despite striking out 21 times in the streak. His projected hit average today is .246 and his probability of collecting at least one hit comes in at .638.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.332, 0.756 — Jacob Wilson batting vs. Logan Allen.
- 0.331, 0.734 — Aaron Judge batting vs. Zach Eflin.
- 0.289, 0.707 — Jose Ramirez batting at Mitch Spence.
- 0.283, 0.703 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Jake Irvin.
- 0.286, 0.701 — Ernie Clement batting vs. Aaron Civale.
- 0.284, 0.698 — Jeremy Pena batting at Jose Soriano.
- 0.273, 0.697 — Trea Turner batting vs. Griffin Canning.
- 0.268, 0.697 — Ronald Acuna batting at Eury Perez.
- 0.291, 0.694 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Emerson Hancock.
- 0.240, 0.694 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Noah Cameron.
- 0.279, 0.694 — Steven Kwan batting at Mitch Spence.
The two systems agree on the double down. Judge and Freeman are the only two batters who appear on both these lists and the MLB top nine.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
I will narrow down the list for you.
Jacob Wilson
Aaron Judge
Ernie Clement
Paul Goldschmidt
Jose Ramirez
These are the best picks out of David’s list of 14 for today. The floor is 83% and the high odds is 90 to 100% for a hit. Multiple scenarios have come up at once for these players, so it depends upon how it “plays out”
Of the 4 picks I chose yesterday, Freddie Freeman did not play (probably because he was grumpy about his performance the prior day and they gave him a day off) and the other 3 all got hits. Yesterday the BOTH category was 100%, 6 for 6 on hits. There were 2 players that did not get hits from David’s list yesterday.
Well, there is nothing that says the Orioles can’t be jerks. Everyone in the Yankees lineup has a hit except Judge, who I am assuming they intentionally walked twice, as its 6-0 right now.
Does anyone know how MLB.com calculates their odds on a player for a hit? Because my odds are certainly and vastly different.
David: Thank you for putting in the neural net probability on the Log 5 picks.
Eric