The 2020 series on team offense continues with the Atlanta Braves. The Braves finished seventh in the majors and third in the National League in 2019 with 5.28 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Brian Snitker order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitcher slot, I used the Braves actual numbers from 2019. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 4.89
- Probable lineup: 4.62
- Worst lineup: 4.23
- Regressed lineup: 4.35
The Braves replaced two players from their 2019 NL East championship lineup. Johan Camargo replaces Josh Donaldson at third base, while Marcell Ozuna takes over for Nick Markakis in the outfield. In both cases, the Braves let go a player heading toward the end of his career with someone in his prime. Camargo is unlikely to be as much of an offensive force as Donaldson, so the Braves take a hit at the plate there. With Ozuna, the Braves take a lower OBP for more power, a good trade-off. The Braves of the 1990s were very good at making these kinds of moves, which is why they stayed competitive for so long.
As for the lineup, this is a case where I like the Braves default better than the LAT calculation. The LAT puts Freddie Freeman at the top of the order, with Ronald Acuna fourth, while the Braves put Acuna at the top of the order with Freeman third. The two hitters project to similar numbers, Freeman with a higher OBP, Acuna with a higher slugging percentage. The LAT does not account for speed, however, and in general I would rather have the faster runner in front of the slower one.
With Acuna’s power at the top, the Braves should consider batting the pitcher eighth. If they stick with the pitcher ninth, I would prefer an Ozzie Albies/Acuna/Freeman top of the order. Having those three together in any order should bring the Braves a ton of first inning runs.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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