The 2020 series on team offense continues with the Minnesota Twins. The Twins finished second in the majors in 2019 with 5.80 runs scored per game.

I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Rocco Baldelli order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

• Best lineup: 5.66
• Probable lineup: 5.47
• Worst lineup: 5.37
• Regressed lineup: 4.90

Given the projections for their batters, the Twins appear to be going strong with the adage that batting orders don’t matter. Their best possible lineup is better than the best of the Yankees, but New York captures 70% of the best in their default lineup, while the Twins capture just 34%.

One of the big reasons for the difference comes from the placement of Luis Arraez. He projects to a .383 OBP and a .462 slugging percentage. That would work well at the top of the order, and the LAT almost always bats him first in the top scoring orders, and sometimes ninth (second lead-off man). I will admit the Marcel projection does seem high for Arraez; other projection systems have his slugging lower. I think it is safe to say that with a low number of plate appearances, his projections need to be taken with a grain of salt. I probably would bat him ninth to set up the top of the order for RBI. If he continues to hit well, he can move up.

Miguel Sano also appears to be hitting a bit lower than he should. The LAT likes to put the worst hitter eighth, and Sano is not the worst hitter on the team. The LAT tends to like him seventh, with his high power and relatively low OBA fits well.

These are basically quibbles. The Twins have a power house, and unless MLB figured out a way to increase drag on the ball, they will score a ton of runs this season.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

• Introduction
• New York Yankees
• Washington Nationals