The 2020 series on team offense continues with the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox finished fourth in the majors and fourth in the American League in 2019 with 5.56 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Ron Roenicke order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
- Best lineup: 5.39
- Probable lineup: 5.36
- Worst lineup: 5.05
- Regressed lineup: 4.83
This lineup nails it, capturing 91% of the optimum order. Slots 6-9 are in total agreement, as well as the lead-off slot. I thought the LAT would bat J.D. Martinez higher, and move Mitch Moreland to the third slot. Martinez bats second in the LAT lineup, with Michael Chavis moving to the third slot. Well done!
Even better for Red Sox fans is the loss of Mookie Betts did not hurt the projection of the offense very much. They are down 0.2 runs per game, which would be about 32 runs over a season, or about three wins. Three wins can easily be swallowed by good luck.
There is still a good deal of pop in the order, but it’s all concentrated at the top. Pitchers will get a break with the bottom three hitters, which a team does not get against the Yankees, Twins, or Astros.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
Previous posts in this series: