The 2024 series on team offense continues with the Minnesota Twins. The Twins finished tenth in the Majors and fifth in the American League in 2023 with 4.80 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That Rocco Baldelli batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

• Best lineup: 5.07
• Probable lineup: 5.00
• Worst lineup: 4.81
• Regressed lineup: 4.60

Over Baldelli’s tenure, he gave a high number of plate appearances to lead-off batters who hit for power but did a poor job of setting the table. Edouard Julien breaks that mold, however, as he drew 42 walks in 241 PA in the lead-off slot in his rookie year of 2023. He posted very high OBPs throughout his minor league career, so his numbers are likely real.

The default lineup matches the LAT very well. Julien leads off all the top lineups, and a number of them post Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, and Byron Buxton in some order in the top four slots. In addition, the LAT uses Alex Kirilloff often the ninth slot. That’s five players in an important part of the order grouped together.

The LAT uses Correa all over the lineup, but mostly places him in the ninth slot. This is one of those instances that the LAT shows its lack of understanding of human nature. There is no way a high-priced free agent signing is going to bat ninth, even if it makes sense for the team.

Maybe Matt Wallner should bat higher? His Marcels projection is based on a small sample of major league data, but his minor league numbers are very good and he is in his prime. We might see him move up if he meets the Marcels expectations.

This is another very good lineup. It the top ten, we’ve seen a number of teams that look like they’ve made moves to improve over 2023, and the Twins fit that mold as well.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

• Introduction
• Atlanta Braves
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Texas Rangers
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Houston Astros
• Chicago Cubs
• Baltimore Orioles
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Cincinnati Reds

*This is the best source of roster information I’ve seen, with everything on one page.