I saw on the Fox pre-game show that the team that wins game five with the series tied go on to win the series 67% of the time. While that bodes well for the team that wins tonight, that team should win 75% of the time. So game five winners have actually underperformed in the history of the playoffs.
Television ratings are very good in the post season so far. It probably helped to have both the Yankees and Dodgers in the wild card round.
The Tigers and Guardians kick off the 2025 post season at 1 PM EDT with Tarik Skubal facing Gavin Williams. Skubal finished second in the majors and first in the American League in ERA for the 2025 season. His three true outcomes all were outstanding, his slightly weak spot came from allowing home runs. The Guardians ranked low in homers. Skubal allowed the Guardians one home run in 28 innings this season, helping him to a 0.64 ERA against the team.
Four of the top ten pitchers in ERA take the mound today, and Williams is close at 13th with a 3.06 ERA. Williams walked a ton of batters, but gave up few hits. Batters managed just a .158/.265/.256 line against him with runners in scoring position. He is a reverse right-handed pitcher, where LHB hit him poorly this season. He allowed the Tigers, who use a fairly left-handed lineup against righties, just eight hits in 17 IP for a 1.06 ERA.
At 3 PM EDT, the Padres and Cubs begin their wild card round with Nick Pivetta facing Matthew Boyd. Pivetta finished tenth in the majors in ERA with a 2.70 mark. Batters managed just 129 hits against him in 181 2/3 innings, with a low walk rate as well. That led to a .253 opposition OBP. The Cubs did hit him well, however, with a .286/.350/.400 slash line in 40 plate appearances. Boyd finished 15th in the majors in ERA. With a low strikeout rate and a low walk rate, the Padres matchup well against him. They put the ball in play, and it will be easier against someone like Boyd. The Padres slashed .256/.319/.279 against him this season, generating little power.
MLB gets a classic rivalry in prime time as the Red Sox visit the Yankees, game time 6 PM EDT. It’s a battle of left-handed aces as Garret Crochet takes on Max Fried. They ranked sixth and eight in MLB ERA respectively this season. Crochet wins the strikeouts and walks columns, with over two more Ks per 9 than Fried. Fried allowed just 14 home runs to Crochet’s 24, and often in these low scoring games the home runs make the difference. He did allow the Yankees five home runs in 27 1/3 innings, but overall pitched well against the team. Fried pitched poorly in five of his last six post-season starts.
Note that the Red Sox are without Roman Anthony. With him playing, Boston went 44-27, a .620 winning percentage. Without him, they were 45-46.
Finally, the Reds face the Dodgers at 9 PM EDT with Hunter Greene facing Blake Snell. Injuries kept the innings for these starters below the qualifying level, but Greene posted a 2.76 ERA and Snell a 2.35 mark, so they may have wound up on the leader board. Snell pitched well in the post-season during his career, tough to hit but he does allow home runs. Greene makes his first post-season start. His first two seasons produced ERAs well over four, but the last two seasons saw ERAs of 2.75 and 2.76. He lowered his ERA despite reducing his strikeout rate, because he lowered his walk and home run rates. He abandoned his changeup for a splitter, and that seems to have done the trick.
Enjoy!
It’s tough to make predictions on a best of three series. The depth of a team doesn’t really come into play, except maybe in the bullpen. As we’ve seen many times, a playoff teams can easily win two games in a row.
Tigers at Guardians (1 PM EDT Series)
Detroit is a much better team than they showed down the stretch, and Cleveland is a much worse team than they showed down the stretch. The Guardians offense may be one of the worst to ever make the post season, ranking between 13th and 15th in runs/game, the three major averages, home runs hit, and BABIP. The only thing they did well was steal bases. The Tigers were middle of the road in everything including pitching. The Guardians excelled in run prevention, but almost all of that rested on keeping the ball in the park. Cleveland allows base runners, but the lack of home runs tends to keep them on base. The Tigers hitters ranked 5th in home runs, so if Cleveland stops those, they can win the series.
Padres at Cubs (3 PM EDT Series)
The Cubs score per game at a higher rate than the Padres. Both teams put batters on base at the same rate, but the Cubs produce more power to drive them around. The Padres are the best team in the NL in preventing runs, however, 3.83 per game. For them, its a combination of strikeouts and defensive efficiency to keep batters off base. (The Cubs are first in defensive efficiency, the Padres second.) They do allow a high rate of home runs that plays into a Cubs strength. If the wind is blowing out at Wrigley this week, that should favor Chicago.
Red Sox at Yankees (6 PM EDT Series)
Boston dominated this series during the regular season, Boston winning nine of the thirteen games. Offensively, Boston batters were much better finding holes with their balls in play. The Yankees were much better at putting the ball over the fence. That give the Yankees the edge on offense. The Red Sox pitching staff stood as the best in the AL in preventing home runs, and the Yankees pitchers did not allow many balls in play with a high K rate. So this series offers a very nice balancing of strengths. Surprisingly to me, the Yankees had a high defensive efficiency, which also helps to eliminate balls finding holes. It’s a toss up, although I do like the better home run teams in the playoff, because those shots can provide the difference in low scoring games.
Reds at Dodgers (9 PM EDT Series)
Overall, both teams look pretty even on the pitching side of the equation, and neither is that great overall. The front line starters for both teams are very good, however, so I would expect the games to be low scoring, at least through the first five or six innings. The teams are not evenly matched on offense. The Dodgers posted the highest runs per game in the NL, and the Reds finished eighth. Los Angeles finished at or near the top of the league in all the averages, while the Reds tended to rank eighth or ninth. I can see the Dodgers cruising to a sweep, but Hunter Greene could give Cincinnati a game one win, which would at least give the Reds a chance to get lucky.
We have four good matchup, this should be fun.
I like to suggest that people without a favorite team in the playoffs root for the one that’s gone the longest without a championship. Here is the 2025 list, team and last time they won, or in the case of some of the expansion teams, the year they first appeared in the majors:
Of course, you could also root for a repeat which hasn’t happened since the Yankees won three in a row at the end of the last century. Seven of the twelve teams have gone more than 30 years without a championship, so it would be nice if one of them ended the drought.
I suspect that if the Red Sox play the Yankees in the Wild Card round, that will be the prime time game on ESPN. Assuming that they space out the games, I suspect that the Tigers/Guardians game would be early afternoon, the Padres at the Cubs would be late afternoon, and the third wild card at the Dodgers would be west coast prime time.
However, if the Mets make it as the third Wild Card, ESPN might be wise to start that west coast game at 8 PM EDT instead of 10 PM EDT. That way they can capture a better Mets audience. I don’t think ESPN would care that much if Cincinnati wins the WC.
If the Yankees are not in the wild card round, or if Boston plays the AL Central winner, it may not be as clear cut. I can see scenarios where the Padres at the Cubs becomes the prime time game. The Cubs are a big city draw, and Padres fans would be happier with the game later in the day.
Also, there is nothing that says the games need to fill their own time slots. They could do a game at (all eastern time) 4 PM, 5 PM, 7 PM, and 9 PM. Unlike me, most baseball fans are concerned with the home team, and don’t necessarily want to see the other games.
In a few hours we’ll know.
The Rays will play home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa if they make the playoffs:
The move came after discussion of potentially shifting postseason games to an alternate major league stadium, with Miami‘s LoanDepot Park among the sites considered. The Rays are playing their regular-season games this year at Steinbrenner Field, home of the Low-A Tampa Tarpons, after hurricane damage tore the roof off Tropicana Field and rendered it unfit for play in 2025.
ESPN.com
I find this very surprising. I would think the Rays would want the money from bigger crowds in a bigger stadium. Maybe they believe their fans won’t travel four hours to Miami to watch the games in person. On the other hand, my experience that people who live in large states (by square miles), tend not to mind driving long distances.
The playoff money pool got deeper in 2024:
The pool of $129.1 million in the third year of expanded playoffs set a record, topping $107.8 million last year, the commissioner’s office said Tuesday.
The Dodgers voted for 79 full shares, 17.49 partial shares and $405,000 in cash awards in dividing a pool of $46.47 million. The 96.49 full-share equivalent was up from 76.56 last year when the Texas Rangers split $38.81 million and a full share was worth $506,263. The Dodgers also voted the most share equivalents last year at 94.04, when they lost in the Division Series.
ESPN.com
So the Dodgers shares came out to $477,441. Not a bad addition to a even one of the big contracts.
I had a discussion with Claude.AI today. I asked the following question:
Can you explain Bayesian updating. If I have two teams that I believe are evenly matched, with a prior probability of 0.5, how do I update that prior if one team wins three games in a row against the other?
Here is Claude’s response:
Let me walk you through Bayesian updating in this context.
Let’s break this down step by step:
- Initial Prior:
- P(Team A is better) = 0.5
- P(Team A is not better) = 0.5
- We need to consider:
- The likelihood of seeing 3 consecutive wins IF Team A is truly better
- The likelihood of seeing 3 consecutive wins IF teams are actually equal
Let’s make some reasonable assumptions:
- If Team A is truly better, they might win any given game with 65% probability
- If teams are equal, each has 50% probability of winning any game
- Calculating likelihoods:
- P(3 wins | Team A is better) = 0.65 × 0.65 × 0.65 = 0.274
- P(3 wins | Teams equal) = 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 = 0.125
- Using Bayes’ Theorem:
P(A is better | 3 wins) = P(3 wins | A is better) × P(A is better) / P(3 wins)Where P(3 wins) = P(3 wins | A is better) × P(A is better) + P(3 wins | Teams equal) × P(Teams equal)
= 0.274 × 0.5 + 0.125 × 0.5 = 0.200Therefore:
P(A is better | 3 wins) = 0.274 × 0.5 / 0.200 = 0.685So after three consecutive wins, we would update our belief from 50% to about 68.5% that Team A is the better team.
Would you like me to explain how the probabilities would change with different assumptions about how much better one team might be?
I thought the 0.65 probability was too high. So I asked for the analysis based on a .55 probablility:
I’ll recalculate using 55% as the probability of Team A winning each game if they’re truly better.
- Initial Prior remains:
- P(Team A is better) = 0.5
- P(Team A is not better) = 0.5
- New probabilities:
- If Team A is better: 55% chance to win each game
- If teams are equal: 50% chance to win each game
- New likelihood calculations:
- P(3 wins | Team A is better) = 0.55 × 0.55 × 0.55 = 0.166
- P(3 wins | Teams equal) = 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 = 0.125
- Using Bayes’ Theorem:
P(3 wins) = 0.166 × 0.5 + 0.125 × 0.5 = 0.146Therefore:
P(A is better | 3 wins) = 0.166 × 0.5 / 0.146 = 0.569With this more conservative assumption, three consecutive wins would only move our belief from 50% to about 57% that Team A is better. This makes intuitive sense – if we believe the skill gap between teams is smaller (55% vs 65% win probability), then we need more evidence (more games) to be confident that one team is actually superior.
This illustrates an important principle of Bayesian updating: the strength of our update depends not just on the evidence (3 wins) but also on how different we expect the world to look under our competing hypotheses. When the hypotheses make very different predictions (65% vs 50%), evidence can shift our beliefs more dramatically than when the hypotheses make similar predictions (55% vs 50%).
I like that a lot better. A probability of .569 indicates that a team that goes up 3-0 in a series would win the series 96.5% of the time. That’s very close to the .975 actual series win probability for teams going up 3-0 in MLB history. If teams are evenly matched we would expect them to win 93.75% of the time. So there is some evidence that teams that go up 3-0 in a seven game series are a bit better than their opponents, but not my much.
People are watching the baseball post season:
Major League Baseball’s postseason is averaging 3.33 million viewers going into the league championship series, an 18% increase over last year’s average of 2.82 million.
The division series averaged 3.56 million viewers for 18 games, a 14% increase from last year.
ESPN.com
There is a combination of big market teams, team rivalries, and compelling games. Sunday night, when the Mets were down 6-0 to the Dodgers late in the game, I was thinking, “They could still come back.” The bracket produced regional rivalry, division rivalry, and historical rivalry. It’s been a real treat, and I’m glad fans are watching, and maybe new fans are coming on board.
Sorry I didn’t get this up earlier, but I tend to root for the team with the highest number of years without a World Championship. So my order for the rest of the playoffs would be (Last time won or first season if never won):
There is a real split this season with four teams well overdue and four teams winning withing the memory of most people. While a World Series featuring the Guardians and Padres would end one of the two longest streaks, a 40th anniversary matchup of the Padres and Tigers would be sweet, too.
The 2023 World Series turned out to be the least watched in TV history. The article does make two points that put a shine on things. First:
However, the Rangers being the ninth champion since 2013 and 14 teams qualifying for the Fall Classic in the same span does have some appeal for Fox executives.
“I think it’s a good thing for the health of baseball to have new pennant winners and new champions, new teams playing in the World Series. You don’t want it to be the same market and the same brands every year,” Fox EVP, Head of Strategy and Analytics Mike Mulvihill said. “But I admit it is difficult for ratings in the short term when you’ve got some brands paired up that don’t really have traditional national boards.”
ESPN.com
Teams tend to get attendance boosts after post-season wins. Baseball does not want a repeat of the 1950s.
The second point isn’t about eyeballs, it’s about winning:
The World Series also continues to outperform every entertainment program. This was the eighth straight year that has happened.
It was the most-watched event four of the five nights. The only thing to beat it was “Monday Night Football,” when the Detroit Lions beat the Las Vegas Raiders.
“Our two hopes and expectations are to beat everything in entertainment, and to have a long series. We didn’t really get a long series, but we did still beat everything in entertainment,” Mulvihill said. “As long as the series continues to do that, it’ll always be powerful in prime time.”
ESPN.com
The article also mentions the Friday start for the series. It seems to me MLB used that to avoid conflicts with Sunday NFL games. It looks like mixed results on that front.
I would like to see the schedule compressed a bit. The easiest way to do that would be to eliminate the second travel day. On top of that, maybe change the format of the division series. Originally, it was 2-3, with the lower seed opening at home. Maybe go to 3-2, with the higher seed getting the first three games at home. Yes, it means lower seeds might not get a home game, but this would also be an easy way to give the higher seeds another advantage in the playoffs.
The Rangers are now 10-0 in road games in the 2023 post season. Only two other teams in the division era were perfect on the road in the post season, the 1996 Yankees at 8-0 and the 2005 White Sox at 6-0.
Rangers hitters keep their power at home, but don’t get on base as much. Their home slash line comes in at .228/.305/.441 versus .265/.349/.481 away. So their isolated power stands at .213 at home, .216 away. They draw walks just fine in both places, but their batted balls fall for hits less frequently.
The pitchers do everything worse at home, with a .277/.347/.432 opponents slash line in Texas, .240/.295/.374 away. The starting pitching shines on the road, 6-0 with a 2.49 ERA in 50 2/3 innings. That allows the offense to get early leads and tends to keep the bullpen fresh.
The dominant road splits are consistent with the 10-0 record. If the team stays perfect the World Series ends tonight.
Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks doubles with one out in the top of the fifth inning to score Geraldo Perdomo, who singled and stole second. Marte now owns a seventeen game hit streak in the post-season, tying the record for a hitting streak to start a post-season career. The RBI double extends the Arizona lead to 5-3 over the Rangers.
Update: With two out, Nathan Eovaldi walks Christian Walker to put runners on first and third. The Rangers go to the bullpen.
Update: Dane Dunning comes in to pitch and gets a ground ball to end the inning.
Please excuse the profanity, but the fans of the Braves, Dodgers, Orioles, and Rays need to remember this from Billy Beane:
Billy said, “My shit doesn’t work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is fucking luck.”
LitCharts.com on Moneyball
The good news is that with twelve teams making the playoffs every season, the great teams will get many more chances where luck goes their way.
The Diamondbacks power comes alive in the bottom of the third inning. They set a record with four home runs in the inning, all solo shots, against Lance Lynn of the Dodgers. Gabriel Moreno appeared to hit the fourth home run down the rightfield line into the Dodgers bullpen. It was initially called fair, but the replay showed it foul. On the next pitch, Moreno hits the ball harder, and drives it out to left-center for the true fourth home run of the inning. Geraldo Perdomo, Ketel Marte, and Christian Walker hit the others.
The Diamondbacks lead the Dodgers 4-0 at the end of three innings.
Josh Criswell at the Houston Chronicle explains why the chant of “We want Houston” by Rangers fans may not be the best idea.
A similar scene unfolded in New York ahead of last year’s ALCS, with Yankees fans hoping their favorite team would finally end their postseason struggles against the Astros. The Bronx Bombers proceeded to get swept after mustering just nine runs in four games, prompting broadcaster Bob Costas to proclaim Houston as “the Yankees’ daddy.” During home wins at Minute Maid Park, Astros fans even trolled their opponent with jestful “we want Houston” chants of their own. Philadelphia Phillies supporters did the same thing prior to the World Series, and while their team managed to snag a pair of victories, it was the Astros who hoisted the Commissioner’s Trophy at Minute Maid Park following Game 6.
Chron.com
I think it’s great. The Rangers are knocking off the best teams they can face one by one. If indeed the Astros make the ALCS and Texas wins, I hope they then face the Braves to make their run through the best teams complete.
Of course, the Twins might take offense that the Rangers don’t want to play them, and use that to spring to the ALCS and then give Texas a tough time.
Corey Seager of the Rangers walks in the top half of the ninth inning, his fifth walk of the game. That sets a major league record for a player walking in a post-season game.
Texas takes an 11-5 lead over the Orioles into the bottom of the ninth.
A standard division of the stages of a player’s career using seasonal age looks like this:
The pre-prime players are leading the charge in the post-season this year. So far, in 172 PA, they are 39 for 145 with seven doubles, ten home runs, and twenty two walks for a .269/.371/.524 slash line. They scored 24 runs and drove in 20.
Evan Carter leads the way with a .667/.833/1.667 slash line, but Corbin Carroll is close with a .500/.571/1.083. Royce Lewis and Gabriel Moreno are both slugging over 900,
By comparison, the prime players, in 378 PA are 83 for 347 with 14 doubles, two triples, eight home runs, and 25 walks for a .236/.293/.357 line. In their defense, the larger sample size is a great leveling factor. After another twelve games this might even out quite a bit.
For completeness, the past-prime players own a .225/.304/.351 line in 258 PA, and the old players own a .219/.329/.297 line in 76 PA. One might infer that good strike zone judgement can keep you in the game longer.
The Rangers, Marlins, Blue Jays, and Diamondbacks all lose on Sunday. The Astros beat Arizona, so Houston wins the AL West and a bye in the wild card round. The Blue Jays finish with the third wild card in the AL, and will play the Twins in Minnesota. The Rangers get the second wild card slot and play the Rays in Tampa Bay.
The Marlins do not need to go to New York, as the game won’t change their seeding. The get the second wild card slot in the NL against the Phillies in Philadelphia, while the Diamondbacks head to Milwaukee to play the Brewers.
Note that all series start on Tuesday, and there will be no day off between the Wild Card round and the division series.
I like to root for the team with the longest World Championship droughts, or the teams that have never won the series. So in order of greatest to least rooting interest, here is my rooting list:
The expectation is for a World Championship every 30 years. Half the teams are in that range, and half out of it or on the edge. The Blue Jays are due. A lot of droughts ended this century, I hope that continues this season.
MLB will use neutral clock operators in the post season:
MLB evaluated each team’s clock operators during the regular season and said Friday it will select up to a dozen of the best performers for postseason games, which start Oct. 3. A clock operator cannot work a postseason game involving the team whose games the operator times during the regular season.
ESPN.com
Leroy Anderson could not be reached for comment.
Once again, Dusty Baker showed lack of forethought in using his bullpen:
Bryan Abreu started to warm up in the fifth but was not in the bullpen until Verlander was already in trouble in the frame.
SportingNews.com
Baker made the same mistake he’s been making for twenty years. He made the mistake against the Angels in 2002, and against the Marlins in 2003.
There are very few points in a game where a manager makes a difference. Baker’s lack of a World Series ring is pretty much his own fault, however. Maybe the Astros are good enough to overcome his blunders.
Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola faces his brother, Padres catcher Austin Nola in the bottom of the second inning. It’s the first time brothers faced each other in the post-season in a batter-pitcher matchup. Austin hits the second pitch on the ground to third base to end the inning. The Phillies lead the Padres 4-2.
In the 2022 regular season home runs produced 41.7% of the RBI recorded in the season. That’s the lowest percentage since the 39.2% in 2015. My regular season batting event data goes back to 1974. Before 2016, the percent of RBI on HR never reached 40%. It has not fallen below 40% since. Yesterday, home runs produced 15 of the 24 RBI, 62.5%. I doubt that number will stay that high, but it shows the value of hitting home runs against good pitching. The four games average six runs scored and 12.5 hits. In an environment like that, one run strategies and long balls become more important. Teams went for the long ball.
Note that this higher rate of RBI on HR should be true in the post-season in general, as post-season teams tend to employee good pitchers and good power hitters. My post-season event data goes back to 2002, and in that time the regular seasons had a HR RBI percentage of 39.4% versus 43.2% in the post-season.
I now hate the CBA:
As long time readers know, I love watching for the possibilities of massive ties in September.
I suspect the no-reseeding has to do with MLB wanting to run a March Madness type contest for the playoffs.
I’m going to sleep, but I do think that a 14-team playoff needs the league to expand:
There is some evidence that teams that avoid an all or nothing offense do better in the playoffs. It could simply be that teams with more diverse offenses have less weaknesses to exploit.
Here’s a novel idea about expanding the post season from the bottom. Hold a tournament among the bottom eight teams, with the winner getting the first pick in the draft:
From there, the two subsequent ‘one game showdowns’ will establish the exact order. If you like shortcuts, here’s the “won-loss” pattern that will determine each pick:
W-W-W = 1st overall pick
W-W-L = 2nd overall pick
W-L-W = 3rd overall pick
W-L-L = 4th overall pick
L-W-W = 5th overall pick
L-W-L = 6th overall pick
L-L-W = 7th overall pick
L-L-L = 8th overall pickThat’s 12 one-game showdowns with quite a bit at stake in each game (especially the first round, but arguably throughout), with each team guaranteed to play 3 games.
AthleticsNation.com
All the game will be played at the stadium of the team with the best winning percentage, so that gate encourages bad teams to finish as high as possible. In this scenario, MLB would go back to a single wild card. It’s an idea worth considering.
The World Series brought down the average number of outs recorded by starting pitchers even more. The 2021 post season saw starters get just 11.9 outs per start.
Since the inception of the three-level playoffs in 1995, the time starters stayed in the game dropped in steps. Up until 2001, the average sat between 17 and 19 outs, or about six innings a game for starting pitchers. From 2002 to 2013 it dropped about an out, with a low of 15.8 and a high of 18. The average has not hit 17 outs since then. The last two seasons saw marks of 13.2 and 11.9.
Part of this can be blamed on the 2020 strange season, but part of it seems to be strategy. Teams would rather go with a bullpen game than start a fourth or fifth start in the playoffs. Even when they do go the back of the rotation starter route, their is low tolerance for any failure.