Sixty nine games into the season, the Rockies own 13-56 record, a .188 winning percentage. Since the first expansion in 1961, eleven teams produced a .315 winning percentage or worse. Four of those teams come from the early 1960s:
- 1962 Mets 40-120, .250
- 1961 Phillies, 47-107, .305
- 1965 Mets, 50-112, .309
- 1963 Mets, 51-111, .315
Note that this level of failure stopped as the first amateur draft happened during the 1965 season. For nearly forty years things were fine, the we saw this:
- 2003 Tigers, 43-119, .265
- 2024 Diamondbacks, 51-111, .315
There was a bit of an upheaval at the time. Between 1997 and 2002, MLB and the MLBPA went back and forth on a competitive balance tax, with the basics of the modern system going into place in 2003.
In 2013, the Astros finished 51-111, .315. Note that the Astros had completed a sale in which they were forced to move to the American League. It was also a time when the CBA put into place restrictions on the amount teams could spend on amateur players, both in terms of the draft and international signings. The Astros poor play for the next four years would be the basis of they dominant teams since.
That brings us to the recent past:
- 2024 White Sox, 41-121, .253
- 2018 Orioles, 47-115, .290
- 2019 Tigers, 47-114, .292
- 2023 Athletics, 50-112, .309
There were also two teams in 2021 just off this list. This season, the Rockies will be challenging the bad recent seasons by the Athletics and White Sox.
I am not a fan of the draft, but implementing that system seemed to stop these terrible teams from happening. Subsequent expansions have not produced a team as bad as the 1962 Mets. The draft did not end dominant teams, however. In the 1970s, four teams won multiple Word Championships; the Pirates, Athletics, Reds, and Yankees. Free agency led to long era when no team repeated. It was the Yankees dominance (and it’s always the Yankees dominance) that led to the competitive balance tax (CBT).
I think it’s safe to say the CBT did not work. Lowering the price of amateur players did not work. A draft lottery has not worked. All of these ideas were pushed with an element of competitive balance, but they seem to be a way for teams to simply save money.
I even think the bonus pool rules for pre-arbitration players might be keeping youngsters in the minors longer. If a team keeps a player in the minors until age 24 the team captures the entire prime of their career. I was having a conversation this morning in which I was asked, “Why don’t the Rockies just call up most of their AAA team?” My answer was that the Rockies won’t be competitive this season, so why start the arbitration clock?
I don’t have answers. In my mind, minor league free agency might work, where some combination of age, minor league service time, and MLB service time makes a minor leaguer a free agent. So use them or lose them. I don’t think a constant parade of below .300 teams are good for the game.