The Yankees are fading and the Rays are surging as Shane Greene faces Drew Smyly in Tampa Bay. One game separates the AL East rivals as both try to chase Seattle for the second wild card slot. Greene holds batters to a .227 BA, but his walk rate brings the opposition up to a .301 OBP. Smyly struck out 15 in 13 innings since joining the Rays, helping him to a 2.08 ERA with his new club.
Seattle at Detroit combines a great pitching match-up with a very important game as Felix Hernandez and David Price pitch for the second wild card slot. Seattle leads Detroit by 1/2 game. Hernandez is the clear Cy Young leader at this point, with 13 wins and a 1.95 ERA. He’s only allowed seven homers in 180 1/3 innings, the best single season rate of his career. Price’s walks and strikeouts are great since joining Detroit, but three home runs in 14 2/3 innings led to a 4.30 ERA with his new team. His 23 home runs in 185 1/3 innings, compared to just seven for Hernandz is the big difference between the two.
Oakland finds themselves down to a one game lead over the Angels in the AL West as they send Sonny Gray against Julio Teheran and the Braves. Gray has faltered in August, with a 4.30 ERA and an 0-3 record. His strikeout rate dropped a bit, making him hittable. Teheran owns a 7.43 ERA in two August starts, and despite a high K rate, he is very hittable this month.
Finally, the Brewers take on the Dodgers with a battle between Yovani Gallardo and Clayton Kershaw. Gallardo does his best work on the road this season, 5-2 with a 2.74 ERA. He’s allowed just five of his 15 home runs away from Milwaukee. Kershaw goes for his 15th win in his 20th start. He allowed just six home runs and 19 walks while striking out 163. We like to use K/BB as a measure of pitching strength, but K/(BB+HR) puts Kershaw’s season second in the expansion ERA (1969 on), minimum 130 IP. Pedro Martinez in 1999 had a 6.80 K/(BB+HR), and Greg Maddux‘s 1997 and 1995 seasons rank third and fourth at 6.10 and 5.84. Pedro also has the fifth best season in that time frame at 5.80 in 2000.
Enjoy!
Add 2 HR (by Gomez and The Sleazebag) and no walks to those numbers, along with 11 Ks–Kershaw has very strange ideas about what a “bad start” looks like.