For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.324, 0.723 — Nico Hoerner batting at German Marquez.
- 0.319, 0.735 — Luis Arraez batting at Zebby Matthews.
- 0.310, 0.721 — Trea Turner batting vs. Bryce Elder.
- 0.305, 0.723 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Chris Paddack.
- 0.304, 0.723 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Matthew Liberatore.
- 0.301, 0.696 — Ramon Laureano batting at Zebby Matthews.
- 0.300, 0.699 — Manny Machado batting at Zebby Matthews.
- 0.297, 0.702 — Alec Bohm batting vs. Bryce Elder.
- 0.291, 0.695 — Chandler Simpson batting at Mitchell Parker.
- 0.289, 0.674 — Pete Crow-Armstrong batting at German Marquez.
Hoerner is a good Beat the Streak candidate as he puts the ball in play. He neither walks nor strikes out much. His BABIP is an okay .305, which is why he tends not to rank this high usually. Playing at Coors Field tonight should help.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.319, 0.735 — Luis Arraez batting at Zebby Matthews.
- 0.324, 0.723 — Nico Hoerner batting at German Marquez.
- 0.305, 0.723 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Chris Paddack.
- 0.304, 0.723 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Matthew Liberatore.
- 0.310, 0.721 — Trea Turner batting vs. Bryce Elder.
- 0.297, 0.702 — Alec Bohm batting vs. Bryce Elder.
- 0.300, 0.699 — Manny Machado batting at Zebby Matthews.
- 0.288, 0.699 — Yandy Diaz batting at Mitchell Parker.
- 0.301, 0.696 — Ramon Laureano batting at Zebby Matthews.
- 0.291, 0.695 — Chandler Simpson batting at Mitchell Parker.
It’s a very similar list. Arraez returns to his old stomping grounds in Minnesota where he posted a .325/.384/.439 slash line. He struck out just 60 times in 761 PA.
Witt owns a sixteen-game hit streak.
Arraez and Hoerner tie for the consensus top picks.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!