For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.314 — Luis Arraez batting against Joey Lucchesi.
- 0.304 — Joey Meneses batting against Jose Urena.
- 0.303 — Bo Bichette batting against Clarke Schmidt.
- 0.296 — Nico Hoerner batting against Bailey Falter.
- 0.296 — Julio Rodriguez batting against Paul Blackburn.
- 0.293 — Cody Bellinger batting against Bailey Falter.
- 0.290 — Jose Altuve batting against Kyle Gibson.
- 0.287 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Hunter Brown.
- 0.285 — Gabriel Moreno batting against Alex Cobb.
- 0.283 — Lane Thomas batting against Jose Urena.
Both Hoerner and Arraez are working on decent hitting streaks, Hoerner at 12 games and Arraez at nine games.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.314, 0.761 — Luis Arraez batting against Joey Lucchesi.
- 0.303, 0.724 — Bo Bichette batting against Clarke Schmidt.
- 0.304, 0.715 — Joey Meneses batting against Jose Urena.
- 0.282, 0.707 — Ronald Acuna batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
- 0.266, 0.706 — Freddie Freeman batting against Miguel Diaz.
- 0.276, 0.705 — Michael Harris II batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
- 0.278, 0.704 — Harold Ramirez batting against Patrick Sandoval.
- 0.296, 0.703 — Nico Hoerner batting against Bailey Falter.
- 0.296, 0.703 — Julio Rodriguez batting against Paul Blackburn.
- 0.287, 0.703 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Hunter Brown.
The two systems show close agreement at the top with Arraez the unanimous top pick, Bichette and Meneses tied for the consensus double down choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!