The Yankees and Blue Jays kick off the outer seeds pairing of the ALDS at 4 PM EDT on Saturday in Toronto. The teams finished with the same record atop the AL East, but Toronto won the season series 8-5, making them AL East Champions with the best record in the American League.
The following table compares the offense of the two teams:
| 2025 AL Ranks | Yankees | Blue Jays |
| Runs per Game | 5.24 (1st) | 4.93 (2nd) |
| Batting Average | .251 (4th) | .265 (1st) |
| On-Base Average | .332 (2nd) | .333 (1st) |
| Slugging Percentage | .455 (1st) | .427 (3rd) |
| Home Runs | 274 (1st) | 191 (6th) |
| Stolen Base Percentage | 77.9 (8th) | 75.5 (12th) |
| BABIP | .290 (7th) | .298 (4th) |
While the two teams finished close in their ranking of runs per game, the Yankees finished over 0.3 runs per game better. That’s a bigger gap than between the Jays in second place and the Tigers in 5th place (4.68 R/G). The Blue Jays finished a hair better in OBP, but the Yankees hit 83 more home runs, or an extra home run every other game. Due to their power, the Yankees moved runners much farther toward home. (Remember, slugging average is actually a measure of distance.) Neither team is particularly good at stealing. When the Blue Jays are putting the ball in the field of play, they do get better results than the Yankees.
The next table looks at pitching and defense.
| 2025 AL Ranks | Yankees | Blue Jays |
| Runs Allowed per Game | 4.23 (7th) | 4.45 (10th) |
| Earned Run Average | 3.91 (7th) | 4.19 (10th) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 9.0 (2nd) | 8.95 (3rd) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 3.5 (12th) | 3.2 (8th) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 24.3 (5th) | 29.1 (12th) |
| Defensive Efficiency | .708 (2nd) | .700 (8th) |
Although the Yankees do have good front line starters, overall they are middle of the road in the AL on the pitching side, and the Blue Jays are a little worse. Both staffs take away ball in play opportunities with high strikeout and walk rates. That hurts the Blue Jays offense more than the Yankees, since their offense is more dependent on balls finding holes in the defense. New York’s defense was actually pretty good at turning batted balls into outs, and that hurst the Toronto offense further.
The big difference, again, comes from the home run rates. Toronto posted a very high home run rate, and that plays right into the Yankees strength.
The Yankees certainly look like the better team. The best of three series doesn’t really mess up the rotation that much. Yes, in game one the bye team sends an ace against a number four, then in game two, the number two starter for the bye teams faces the number one starter for the wild card team. So the middle three game, the WC team gets a pitching advantage.
Combine that with the Blue Jays presenting a poor counter to the strength of the Yankees hitters, I give New York a 54% chance of returning to the ALCS.