May 31, 2016

Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my program produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN).

First, the log5 list:

0.362 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Wily Peralta
0.356 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Wily Peralta
0.342 — Matthew Adams batting against Wily Peralta
0.326 — Greg Garcia batting against Wily Peralta
0.324 — Yadier Molina batting against Wily Peralta
0.318 — Eric Fryer batting against Wily Peralta
0.310 — Jose Altuve batting against Patrick Corbin
0.306 — Matt Holliday batting against Wily Peralta
0.305 — Jeff Francoeur batting against Jake Peavy
0.303 — Tommy Pham batting against Wily Peralta

Log5 wants to bat against Wily Peralta!

Here is the NN list:

0.310, 0.762 — Jose Altuve batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.362, 0.745 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Wily Peralta.
0.297, 0.742 — Francisco Lindor batting against Colby Lewis.
0.302, 0.737 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.342, 0.734 — Matthew Adams batting against Wily Peralta.
0.299, 0.734 — Daniel Murphy batting against Aaron Nola.
0.249, 0.731 — Buster Posey batting against Matthew R Wisler.
0.302, 0.729 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Eric Surkamp.
0.261, 0.729 — Josh Harrison batting against Jose D Fernandez.
0.295, 0.724 — Danny Valencia batting against Tyler B Duffey.

The NN is not as hung up on Wily Peralta. Both system like Stephen Piscotty as a pick. Good luck!

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