Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.347 — Starling Marte batting against Wily Peralta
0.329 — Josh Harrison batting against Wily Peralta
0.328 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ubaldo Jimenez
0.325 — Devon Travis batting against Jered Weaver
0.323 — Adam Frazier batting against Wily Peralta
0.310 — Gregory Polanco batting against Wily Peralta
0.309 — David Freese batting against Wily Peralta
0.309 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jose Berrios
0.308 — Josh Bell batting against Wily Peralta
0.306 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Jose Berrios
0.305 — Trea Turner batting against Ubaldo Jimenez

Wily Peralta promises a good day for the Pirates hitters. The red hot Trea Turner makes the list.

The NN produces this list:

0.328, 0.756 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.347, 0.747 — Starling Marte batting against Wily Peralta.
0.325, 0.739 — Devon Travis batting against Jered Weaver.
0.289, 0.738 — Corey Seager batting against Matt Moore.
0.290, 0.731 — Dee Gordon batting against Edinson Volquez.
0.306, 0.730 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Jose Berrios.
0.329, 0.729 — Josh Harrison batting against Wily Peralta.
0.309, 0.727 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jose Berrios.
0.284, 0.724 — Paulo Orlando batting against Thomas Koehler.
0.293, 0.723 — Martin Prado batting against Edinson Volquez.

The two methods combined like Daniel Murphy and Starling Marte.

With parks factored into the NN, the list is modified like this:

0.328, 0.757 — Daniel Murphy batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.347, 0.753 — Starling Marte batting against Wily Peralta.
0.325, 0.743 — Devon Travis batting against Jered Weaver.
0.289, 0.739 — Corey Seager batting against Matt Moore.
0.329, 0.737 — Josh Harrison batting against Wily Peralta.
0.306, 0.734 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Jose Berrios.
0.309, 0.732 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jose Berrios.
0.290, 0.731 — Dee Gordon batting against Edinson Volquez.
0.301, 0.728 — Jean Segura batting against Matt Wisler.
0.284, 0.728 — Paulo Orlando batting against Thomas Koehler.

Harrison moves up, Gordon moves down, and Marte gets above the .75 mark in probability. It looks like Murphy and Marte are indeed the best picks. As always, your best picks are going to fail 25% of the time. Good luck!