For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.311 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Kyle Muller.
- 0.306 — Nick Castellanos batting against Alex Cobb.
- 0.304 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Dean Kremer.
- 0.300 — Gabriel Moreno batting against Kyle Muller.
- 0.296 — Luis Arraez batting against Josiah Gray.
- 0.291 — Trea Turner batting against Alex Cobb.
- 0.290 — Dominic Fletcher batting against Kyle Muller.
- 0.288 — Shohei Ohtani batting against Dean Kremer.
- 0.287 — Joey Meneses batting against Jesus Luzardo.
- 0.286 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Alex Cobb.
Gurriel looks like a great pick without running a program. Muller allowed 53 hits in 38 innings this season. Gurriel is hitting .373/.418/.431 against left-handed pitchers this season with just six K in 55 PA.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.296, 0.737 — Luis Arraez batting against Josiah Gray.
- 0.306, 0.713 — Nick Castellanos batting against Alex Cobb.
- 0.311, 0.712 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Kyle Muller.
- 0.304, 0.708 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Dean Kremer.
- 0.291, 0.705 — Trea Turner batting against Alex Cobb.
- 0.281, 0.705 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Wade Miley.
- 0.287, 0.704 — Joey Meneses batting against Jesus Luzardo.
- 0.239, 0.691 — Bo Bichette batting against Domingo German.
- 0.300, 0.689 — Gabriel Moreno batting against Kyle Muller.
- 0.283, 0.688 — Amed Rosario batting against Lance Lynn.
Arraez returns to action after an off day. Castellanos and Gurriel tie for the consensus double down picks. Castellanos hits for a high BA this season despite a very high K rate. Both he and Cobb own high BABIPs so if Castellanos puts the ball in play, it has a very good chance of finding a hole.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!