For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.304 — Nick Castellanos batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.297 — Michael Brantley batting against Dane Dunning.
- 0.288 — Jean Segura batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.284 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.283 — Alec Bohm batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.282 — Trea Turner batting against Merrill Kelly.
- 0.281 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
- 0.275 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jose Berrios.
- 0.272 — Odubel Herrera batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.271 — Bryce Harper batting against Kyle Freeland.
The Phillies host the Rockies Monday evening, and it looks like they should have a good day against Freeland. Castellanos comes out on top as most of his OBP comes from his hits, as his walk rate is low.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.282, 0.709 — Trea Turner batting against Merrill Kelly.
- 0.297, 0.708 — Michael Brantley batting against Dane Dunning.
- 0.304, 0.703 — Nick Castellanos batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.281, 0.688 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
- 0.275, 0.682 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Jose Berrios.
- 0.288, 0.680 — Jean Segura batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.267, 0.675 — Freddie Freeman batting against Merrill Kelly.
- 0.266, 0.673 — Bo Bichette batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
- 0.269, 0.670 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
- 0.270, 0.669 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Dane Dunning.
Turner comes out on top once again, but this might be the first time this season three batters all come in with probabilities over .700. Brantley and Castellanos, however, are tied for the consensus double down picks.
Nice to see the Gurriel brothers neck and neck.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!