For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.314 — Luis Arraez batting against Frankie Montas.
- 0.301 — Abraham Toro-Hernandez batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.296 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Kevin Gausman.
- 0.294 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Kevin Gausman.
- 0.293 — Brent Rooker batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.292 — Alec Bohm batting against Andrew Heaney.
- 0.286 — Matt Vierling batting against Kevin Gausman.
- 0.281 — Andy Ibanez batting against Kevin Gausman.
- 0.279 — Wenceel Perez batting against Kevin Gausman.
- 0.276 — Adley Rutschman batting against Michael Clevinger.
Ketel Marte extended his hit streak to 21 games with a two for five against the Dodgers on Wednesday night, including a home run. Arraez owns a seven game streak, Bohm is at eight. The Diamondbacks have the day off.
It looks like it might be a good day for the Tigers. Gausman allowed 53 hits in 42 1/3 innings, a rough year for him.
The NN projects these batters to have a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.314, 0.757 — Luis Arraez batting against Frankie Montas.
- 0.292, 0.703 — Alec Bohm batting against Andrew Heaney.
- 0.296, 0.694 — Giovanny Urshela batting against Kevin Gausman.
- 0.294, 0.682 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Kevin Gausman.
- 0.273, 0.678 — Elias Diaz batting against Joey Estes.
- 0.301, 0.677 — Abraham Toro-Hernandez batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.264, 0.674 — Bo Bichette batting against Jack Flaherty.
- 0.276, 0.672 — Adley Rutschman batting against Michael Clevinger.
- 0.253, 0.670 — Michael Harris II batting against Ben Brown.
- 0.261, 0.667 — Ryan O’Hearn batting against Michael Clevinger.
- 0.262, 0.667 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Ben Brown.
Get your picks in this morning, as there are five early afternoon games. Arraez is the unanimous top pick, and he is three for six with a strikeout against Montas in his career. Urshela is the consensus double down choice. Note that he is batting just .182, 4 for 22 since returning from the illjured list.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!