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September 7, 2024
September 6, 2024
Viva Vientos
Mark Vientos of the Mets posted a big night for the home team as they beat the Reds 6-4 in 10 innings. Vientos homered early, his two-run shot in the first giving New York a 2-0 lead. He homered late, hits bottom of the tenth inning shot winning the game and allowing the Mets to remain in a tie with the Braves for the third wild card slot in the NL. Vientos also singled in the game. He is now 11 for 24 during the Mets eight game win streak.
September 6, 2024
Putting the K in Kremer
Dean Kremer of the Orioles just finished six no-hit innings against the Rays. He walked three and struck out seven so far, with 81 pitches thrown. This after getting hit on the wrist in his last start. (Picture of the swelling at the link.) We’ll see if this lasts, and if so, does Kremer stay in the game.
The Orioles lead the Rays 2-0.
Update: Junior Caminero leads off the seventh with a single to break up the no-hitter.
September 6, 2024
Zero to One
The Cubs offense almost matched Thursday’s Cubs pitching as the Yankees win a 3-0 Friday afternoon at Wrigley, holding Chicago to one hit. Luis Gil started for New York and pitched six shutout innings for the win, allowing a double to Cody Bellinger. Bellinger reached base three times; all other Cubs reached twice. Yankees pitchers recorded 13 strikeouts, as the Cubs didn’t put the ball in play much on the afternoon.
September 6, 2024
Games of the Day
The Yankees and Cubs kick off the day in Chicago with an afternoon game as Luis Gil takes on Jordan Wicks. The Cubs have been hot for over month, 23-12 since July 27th. That .657 winning percentage was only exceeded by the Diamondbacks and Padres. They remain, however, nine games back in the division and four games behind the Braves and Mets for the third wild card slot. The Yankees are 20-15 in that stretch.
The battle for the second wild card slot in the AL takes place in Kansas City as the Twins visit the Royals. Zebby Matthews takes on Cole Ragans. Matthews makes the fifth start of his career. He was doing well until Toronto score nine runs in two innings off the rookie. On the plus side, he walked just two batters in seventeen innings. Ragans, with 2/3 of an inning, moves into ERA qualification territory for the first time in his career. He struck out 197 batters in his 161 1/3 innings.
The Guardians face the Dodgers in a matchup of first place teams. The Dodgers have yet to announce a starter, but the game does feature two of the great doubles hitters of the decade. Freddie Freeman and Jose Ramirez rank 1-3 in doubles respectively since the start of the 2021 season. Freeman knocked out 162 two-baggers, while Ramirez comes in at 143. Mookie Betts is up there with 130, and Shohei Ohtani has a respectable 112.
Enjoy!
September 6, 2024
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top project hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.320 — Luis Arraez batting against Mason Black.
- 0.314 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Daniel Matthews.
- 0.300 — Yainer Diaz batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.294 — Jose Altuve batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.290 — Jackson Merrill batting against Mason Black.
- 0.290 — Jackson Chourio batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.286 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.284 — Freddy Fermin batting against Daniel Matthews.
- 0.283 — William Contreras batting against Ryan Feltner.
- 0.282 — Donovan Solano batting against Mason Black.
Doubling down on Jacksons seems like a good deal as the two rookies project to the same hit average today. Chourio owns a nine-game hit streak.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.320, 0.751 — Luis Arraez batting against Mason Black.
- 0.314, 0.732 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Daniel Matthews.
- 0.300, 0.718 — Yainer Diaz batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.294, 0.710 — Jose Altuve batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.290, 0.701 — Jackson Merrill batting against Mason Black.
- 0.286, 0.695 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Brandon Pfaadt.
- 0.284, 0.693 — Freddy Fermin batting against Daniel Matthews.
- 0.265, 0.689 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Max Fried.
- 0.268, 0.689 — Jarren Duran batting against Davis Martin.
- 0.282, 0.688 — Donovan Solano batting against Mason Black.
- 0.247, 0.688 — Jose Iglesias batting against Fernando Cruz.
I was watching the Rockies broadcast last night, and they discussed the number of sluggers hitting for high batting averages. In was in the context of Marcel Ozuna batting, but they brought up Alvarez, Guerrero, and Aaron Judge. They did not put Witt in the same category, and yet Witt ranks second in the AL in extra-base hits, total bases, and slugging percentage.
The two systems agree on the top three batters, with Arraez and Witt the unanimous double down choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
September 6, 2024
Best Batter Today
The top three in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings received a day off on Thursday. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees rank first and third, while Valdimir Guerrero Jr sits in second place. He remains one and half points behind Judge.
Brent Rooker of the Athletics moves into fourth place with a two for five game, both hits home runs as Oakland fell to Seattle 6-4. Rooker is tied for fourth place in the AL home run race with 35.
In the same game, Luke Raley of the Mariners posted a game score of 73, the highest on the day. He went three for five with two doubles and a home run, his homer in the top of the ninth gave the Mariners the cushion they needed to survive Rooker’s second home run of the game.
Francisco Lindor occupies fifth place as the Mets also took the day off.
September 6, 2024
Friday Update
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
September 5, 2024
Chapman Extended
The Giants signed Matt Chapman to a six-year contract late Wednesday night. It replaces the last two year of his current contract and runs through his age 37 season. The deal is worth $151 million.
Baseball Reference and FanGraphs differ greatly on Chapman’s WAR. For 2022-2024, BR has him at 13 WAR. FanGraphs put him at 11.4 WAR. Using BR WAR, I would estimate Chapman at producing 20.3 WAR over the life of the contract, 17.8 WAR according to Fangraphs.
It always seemed to me that FanGraphs WAR is more predictive, while BR is more awards driven; what the player should have done than what he actually did. It could be that FG in this case is consistently underestimating Chapman.
That would translate to the Giants paying him $7.4 per million per WAR based on BR, $8.5 million per WAR based on FanGraphs. Either one strikes me as a bargain, indicating the Giants built in a discount in case Chapman’s decline comes back.
September 5, 2024
Fast Ks
The Twins beat the Rays 4-3 Thursday in just two hours and twenty five minutes. That time is no longer unusual, but the game produced 24 strikeouts, seven more than the average game this season. Strikeouts usually mean lots of pitches, since a pitcher needs at least three. There were only three walks, however, so I suspect those Ks came on low ball counts.
Maybe the game just needs more pitchers who stay in the strike zone.
September 5, 2024
Lowder ERA
Rhett Lowder of the Reds made quite the impression in his second MLB start Thursday afternoon. He shutout the Astros for 6 1/3 innings. He did walk four and strike out just three, but all the hits were singles.
That gives him one run allowed in his first 10 1/3 innings for an 0.87 ERA. He’s doing this after going up three levels in the minors in one season. I suspect there is a little bit of luck behind that ERA, but he struck out 113 in 108 2/3 innings in the minors, walking just 24. If the control comes around, he could be awesome.
September 5, 2024
Best Batter Today
Juan Soto of the Yankees jumps back into the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with the second highest game score of the day, a 79. His three for three with a walk, a double and a home run moved him into third place. His teammate, Aaron Judge, barely stays in first place after drawing a walk in four trips to the plate. None of that was enough as Texas takes the game 10-6. The Rangers were one of five teams to score at least 10 runs on Wednesday.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays sits in second place after collecting a double in a 4-2 Phillies win. He sits a point and half behind Judge. Yordan Alvarez of the Astros holds ranks fourth after an 0 for 3 in a 12-5 Reds win. Francisco Lindor of the Mets rounds out the top five with a two for five with a double in an 8-3 win over the Red Sox. He owns a fifteen game hit streak, the longest active streak in the majors.
Luis Urias of the Mariners posted the best game score of the day, an 81. He went three for four with two doubles and a home run in a 16-3 win over the Athletics. His home run came off Janson Junk, making his Athletics debut. He allowed six hits and seven runs without record an out.
Urias is a three true outcomes hitter this season. In 99 PA, he struck out 33 times, walked eight times, was hit by a pitch five times, and hit four home runs. He owns a .174 BA with a .283 OBP and a .385 slugging percentage.
September 5, 2024
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.347 — Luis Arraez batting against Casey Mize.
- 0.317 — Jackson Merrill batting against Casey Mize.
- 0.307 — Donovan Solano batting against Casey Mize.
- 0.301 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.299 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Bailey Falter.
- 0.292 — Harold Ramirez batting against Bailey Falter.
- 0.292 — Manny Machado batting against Casey Mize.
- 0.292 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Martin Perez.
- 0.290 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Casey Mize.
- 0.288 — Elias Diaz batting against Casey Mize.
It looks like a good day for the Padres as Mize takes the mound. Arraez owns consecutive two-hit games.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.347, 0.766 — Luis Arraez batting against Casey Mize.
- 0.317, 0.721 — Jackson Merrill batting against Casey Mize.
- 0.299, 0.709 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Bailey Falter.
- 0.292, 0.708 — Harold Ramirez batting against Bailey Falter.
- 0.307, 0.705 — Donovan Solano batting against Casey Mize.
- 0.301, 0.703 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.271, 0.702 — Yainer Diaz batting against Rhett Lowder.
- 0.280, 0.701 — Amed Rosario batting against Hunter Brown.
- 0.285, 0.691 — Michael Harris II batting against Austin Gomber.
- 0.263, 0.690 — Jose Altuve batting against Rhett Lowder.
Merrill, in his rookie season, turned out to be a high BA, low OBA player. His strikeout rate is low for the ERA, but high compared to Arraez. Still, he’s a good double down choice today as the two systems agree at the top.
Note there are a number of afternoon games today, and no real late games as the West coast sees two 5 PM PDT contests. Get your picks in early!
September 5, 2024
Thursday Update
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
September 4, 2024
Cubs in the Ninth
Porter Hodge comes on to pitch to try to lock down a combined no-hitter by the Cubs. Chicago leads the Pirates 12-0.
Update: Billy McKinney grounds out on the first pitch. One down.
Update: Nick Gonzales grounds out for the second out.
Update: Oneil Cruz falls behind 1-2. He grounds out to short, and the Cubs pitchers combine on a no-hitter!
Update: According to the broadcast, this is the Cubs first no-hitter at Wrigley since 1972.
September 4, 2024
White Sox Watch
The White Sox win! They take down the Orioles 8-1. I watched quite a bit of the game, and the south siders played well. Starter Jonathan Cannon mixed his pitches well to keep the Orioles hitters off balance. The defense looked good, and the offense delivered three home runs.
That win doesn’t change much, however, as there still is a 0.86 probability that they finish with 40 wins or fewer.
September 4, 2024
Feat Night in Chicago?
The Cubs lead the Pirates 9-0 after five innings. Starting pitcher Shota Imanaga is throwing a no hitter, while batters Dansby Swanson and Pete Crow-Armstrong are each a triple short of the cycle.
Update: Isaac Paredes makes two errors in the sixth inning, but Imanaga keeps the no-hitter intact. He’s thrown 84 pitches.
Update: Imanaga gets the Pirates in order in the seventh. The Cubs now lead 11-0. Swanson did not get a triple in his last AB to end the sixth. PCA gets a chance next.
Update: PCA misses the triple by inches as a ball down the rightfield line lands just foul. Imanaga does not come out for the eighth inning. Nate Pearson is now pitching.
Update: Pearson retires the side in the eighth. The Cubs need three more outs for a combined no-hitter.
September 4, 2024
Airing Out Arrighetti
The Reds score nine runs in the first inning all nine charged to Astros starter Spencer Arrighetti. He faced eleven batters, recording two outs, and his night ended when Elly De La Cruz picked up his second hit of the inning. He doubled, then singled. All in all, Arrighetti allowed six hits and three walks.
It’s a disappointing outing for the pitcher after he posted a 1.95 ERA in August. That was seven runs allowed in 32 1/3 innings.
September 4, 2024
Best Batter Today
Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies posted his second 100+ game score in a month, the only two 100+ game scores this season. He collected five hits in six at bats, three of them home runs. He added a double and six RBI for a game score of 101. His three run home run in the top of the ninth gave the Phillies their winning margin over the Blue Jays 10-9.
In the same game, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays went four for five with a double and a home run for the second highest game score of the day, a 79. That puts him second in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings, just under three points behind Aaron Judge of the Yankees. Judge went one for five against Texas on Tuesday, the Rangers winning the game 7-4 on a walk-off grand slam by Wyatt Langford. The rookie is slugging just .382 on the season, but eight of his ten home runs came with men on base, two of the them grand slams. He is slugging .460 with men on base, so he applying his power when it does the most good. It’s one reason he drove in 60 runs this year.
Third place on the list belongs to Yordan Alvarez of the Astros who both had an off day. Bobby Witt Jr.of the Royals sits in fourth place after a two for three with a walk in a 7-1 Guardians victory. With the Twins losing as well, Cleveland extends their AL Central lead to 4 1/2 games.
Francisco Lindor moves into the fifth slot, making the MVP chants more credible. He went two for four with a double and a home run in a 7-2 win over the Red Sox, raising his slugging percentage to .500. Lindor started collecting multi-hit games on 6/4, and stayed hot ever since. He ranked 37th at that time.
September 4, 2024
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.318 — Luis Arraez batting against Keider Montero.
- 0.306 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
- 0.304 — Xavier Edwards batting against MacKenzie Gore.
- 0.301 — Yainer Diaz batting against Nick Martinez.
- 0.297 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Ben Lively.
- 0.291 — Jose Altuve batting against Nick Martinez.
- 0.286 — Jackson Merrill batting against Keider Montero.
- 0.285 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Nick Martinez.
- 0.284 — Miguel Andujar batting against George Kirby.
- 0.281 — Donovan Solano batting against Keider Montero.
Edwards kept popping up in the top ten during his stint on the illjured list. He is a high average hitter who walks a decent amount, but his hits are high enough to earn him a good hit average.
The NN produced this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.318, 0.751 — Luis Arraez batting against Keider Montero.
- 0.297, 0.726 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Ben Lively.
- 0.301, 0.719 — Yainer Diaz batting against Nick Martinez.
- 0.306, 0.713 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
- 0.275, 0.706 — Jose Iglesias batting against Tanner Houck.
- 0.291, 0.705 — Jose Altuve batting against Nick Martinez.
- 0.304, 0.704 — Xavier Edwards batting against MacKenzie Gore.
- 0.286, 0.698 — Jackson Merrill batting against Keider Montero.
- 0.285, 0.694 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Nick Martinez.
- 0.269, 0.693 — Amed Rosario batting against Spencer Arrighetti.
Arraez comes out on top once again, with Guerrero the consensus double down pick.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
September 4, 2024
Wednesday Update
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
September 3, 2024
White Sox Watch
The Orioles beat the White Sox 9-0 to drop Chicago’s winning percentage to .221. At this point figuring out probabilities is just ridiculous. This is just a horrible team. They are going to break loss records and winning percentage records at the bad end of the scale. At this point I would be surprised if they won another game all year. They have 22 games left. They would need to go 10-12 to finish above .250, and 11-11 to just tie the 1962 Mets in number of losses.
Here’s Woody asking a White Sox what she thinks of this season:
September 3, 2024
Gone Full White Sox
I’m watching the Baltimore feed of the White Sox game. With the bases loaded and two out, former White Sox player Eloy Jimenez pops up to shallow leftfield near the foul line. Andrew Benintendi comes in calling the ball. Third baseman Miguel Vargas goes back on the ball. Vargas does not give way and Benintendi takes him out, the ball dropping for a three-run, two base error. The Orioles announcer said, “Oh no, the White Sox have gone full White Sox.”
The Orioles lead 7-0 in the bottom of the second inning.
Update: Vargas initially stayed in the game, but came out while there was a pitching change.
September 3, 2024
Game of the Day
The Cleveland tries to bury host Kansas City a little deeper as they send Tanner Bibee against Brady Singer. Bibee now stands 20-10 in his short career. With one more inning pitched than his rookie season of 2023, he allowed five more hits and six more home runs, but walked ten fewer batters to drop his walk rate in 2024 to 2.2 per 9 IP. Singer looks like he will break the 162 IP barrier after finishing in the 150s the last two seasons. He does a great job of limiting power with a .395 opponent’s slugging percentage.
Enjoy!
September 3, 2024
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.319 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.300 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.298 — Michael Harris II batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.296 — Jackson Chourio batting against Steven Matz.
- 0.296 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.296 — Gio Urshela batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.295 — Oneil Cruz batting against Kyle Hendricks.
- 0.293 — William Contreras batting against Steven Matz.
- 0.292 — Tyler Fitzgerald batting against Ryne Nelson.
- 0.289 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Tyler Phillips.
This might be the first time in a few years that Patrick Corbin pitched and no one batting against him made the list. Corbin improved lately, but I suspect the Marlins batters don’t have great numbers.
Once again I am impressed to see sluggers with high OBPs make the list, especially with Ozuna at the top. He is very high on a lot of leader boards that have to do with hits, and ranks in the top five in all three average categories.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.285, 0.716 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Tanner Bibee.
- 0.319, 0.714 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.267, 0.704 — Jose Iglesias batting against Kutter Crawford.
- 0.289, 0.699 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Tyler Phillips.
- 0.285, 0.698 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting against Max Meyer.
- 0.279, 0.698 — Harold Ramirez batting against Max Meyer.
- 0.298, 0.697 — Michael Harris II batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.283, 0.697 — Trea Turner batting against Chris Bassitt.
- 0.279, 0.690 — Steven Kwan batting against Brady Singer.
- 0.296, 0.690 — Gio Urshela batting against Kyle Freeland.
A somewhat different list, where the more traditional streak extenders join the sluggers. At this point, Witt belongs in the sluggers who get on base category, but long term he is more high BA, low OBP. There are also four teams with a day off, which is why we don’t see Luis Arraez.
Ozuna stands as the consensus top pick, while Harris beats out Guerrero for the double down slot.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
September 3, 2024
Best Batter Today
Juan Soto moves back into the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Soto went two for four with a walk in an 8-4 win over the Rangers. His teammate, Aaron Judge, remains in the top spot after a double.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.and the Blue Jays took Monday off, and Guerrero stays in second place.
The Astros did play and Yordan Alvarez doubled and walked in a 5-3 Reds win for third place. Brent Rooker of the Athletics doubled in four trips in a 5-4 win over the Mariners, spoiling Seattle’s chance to close ground on Houston. Rooker holds fifth place.
The best game score of the day came off the bat of Teoscar Hernandez of the Dodgers, he went five for five with a double and a triple in a 11-6 win over the Diamondbacks. That was good for a game score of 81, three points ahead of teammate Freddie Freeman, who homered twice. Six of Hernandez’s last eleven hits have gone for extra bases.
September 3, 2024
Tuesday Update
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
September 2, 2024
TV Appearance
I was interviewed about Labor Day traffic, even though my lovely wife did the driving.
September 2, 2024
White Sox Watch
The Orioles beat the White Sox 13-3 on Monday, lowering the White Sox winning percentage on the season to .223. It was a particularly awful loss. Chicago got off to a 2-0 lead in the top of the first. The Orioles came back with one in the bottom of the inning, then two more in the third, then two more in the fifth. The White Sox would put a man on, but three double plays killed some of those runners. The Baltimore batteed around in the sixth inning, scoring six more runs, and the game was basically over. Some how, that big loss did not move the needle on their Pythagorean projection, as they are still at -7.
That winning percentage is below the .250 winning percentage of the 1962 Mets, the modern record for mediocrity. Time to update the probability of Chicago finishing with no more than 40 wins.
They need to go no better than 9-14 the rest of the way to finish with a worse winning percentage than the Mets. The lowest winning percentage that doesn’t include 30 wins in the 95 percent confidence interval for 139 games is .294. The probability of no more than 9 wins at that level is 0.893. The White Sox are now below the replacement winning percentage of .296, which would give them a ,888 chance of no more than40 wins. I believe that when replacement level becomes the generous team evaluation, a team has gone from the miserable to the horrible. I wonder if they only read books with “death” in the title:
If you are looking for a more optimistic view, the White Sox are -7 wins by the Pythagorean Won-Loss percentage. That would put their 95 percentage confidence interval probability at .348, which reduces their probability of finishing with no more than 40 wins to 0.75, or three in four. I’m dropping my best guess to a 38-124 finish.
September 2, 2024
Guardian Gain
The Guardians defeated the Royals 4-2 on Labor Day pushing Kansas City four game back in the division. Cleveland went into a slump starting August 3rd, and with the win today they stand 12-17 in that time. While the Royals briefly moved into a tie in the division, they are now 13-15 in the same span. The Twins need to win this evening’s game against the Rays to keep pace. They are 14-14 in the same stretch.