For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.318 — Luis Arraez batting against Keider Montero.
- 0.306 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
- 0.304 — Xavier Edwards batting against MacKenzie Gore.
- 0.301 — Yainer Diaz batting against Nick Martinez.
- 0.297 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Ben Lively.
- 0.291 — Jose Altuve batting against Nick Martinez.
- 0.286 — Jackson Merrill batting against Keider Montero.
- 0.285 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Nick Martinez.
- 0.284 — Miguel Andujar batting against George Kirby.
- 0.281 — Donovan Solano batting against Keider Montero.
Edwards kept popping up in the top ten during his stint on the illjured list. He is a high average hitter who walks a decent amount, but his hits are high enough to earn him a good hit average.
The NN produced this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.318, 0.751 — Luis Arraez batting against Keider Montero.
- 0.297, 0.726 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Ben Lively.
- 0.301, 0.719 — Yainer Diaz batting against Nick Martinez.
- 0.306, 0.713 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Cristopher Sanchez.
- 0.275, 0.706 — Jose Iglesias batting against Tanner Houck.
- 0.291, 0.705 — Jose Altuve batting against Nick Martinez.
- 0.304, 0.704 — Xavier Edwards batting against MacKenzie Gore.
- 0.286, 0.698 — Jackson Merrill batting against Keider Montero.
- 0.285, 0.694 — Yordan Alvarez batting against Nick Martinez.
- 0.269, 0.693 — Amed Rosario batting against Spencer Arrighetti.
Arraez comes out on top once again, with Guerrero the consensus double down pick.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!