The 2026 division previews conclude with the NL Central. To help with evaluations, a crude runs created per game is calculated from Musings Marcel projections for both batters and pitchers. I then average these for the core of the team. The nine position players, the five starting pitchers, and the closer. I weight the pitchers as 90% starters, 10% closer. The selection of players comes from the FanGraphs Roster Resource.

The bottom line is a Core Winning Percentage based on the RC/G of the core batters and core pitchers using the Pythagorean method. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Note that the core winning percentage (CWP) is going to be high, often the core is going to be over .500. We are basically looking at the best players on the team. Don’t take that as a prediction of team winning percentage, take it as a way to compare teams in a division.

Pittsburgh Pirates

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.09
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 3.90
• Core Winning Percentage: .629

The Pirates lead the NL Central in core winning percentage, and the pitching is the reason. Paul Skenes at 2.71 RC/G is the best starting pitcher in the division and one of the best in the National League. Bubba Chandler (3.78) and Braxton Ashcraft (4.10) project as solid complements, and Carmen Mlodzinski (4.18) rounds out a rotation that has real depth behind Skenes. Dennis Santana (3.63) is a capable closer. The overall pitching average of 3.90 is the best in the division by a wide margin.

The offense has more punch than Pittsburgh teams of recent years. Marcell Ozuna at DH, signed as a free agent, projects to 6.18 RC/G and is the biggest bat in the lineup. Ryan O’Hearn (5.56 in right) and Spencer Horwitz (5.63 at first) are productive contributors. Bryan Reynolds (5.14 in left) gives the Pirates a veteran presence with consistent production. The concern is the middle infield — Nick Gonzales at shortstop (4.38) and Jared Triolo at third (4.20) are below-average offensive players, and the up-the-middle average of 4.77 is the second weakest in the division. Finding offensive upgrades up the middle is the hardest thing to do at the trade deadline, which limits Pittsburgh’s options if they need to improve.

Oneil Cruz in center (4.81) is a fascinating player who is capable of delivering a much higher projection on any given night. If the Pirates can get more consistent production from Cruz and Gonzales, this offense becomes genuinely dangerous paired with that pitching staff.

Pinto writes:

Can the Pirates actually win the division? Skenes projects to 2.97 runs per 27 outs. Let’s say he starts 32 games and averages seven innings a game. The bullpen averages two innings a game and comes in at 4.00 runs per 27 outs. That’s ((2.97*7) +(4.00 *2)) /9 or 3.20 runs per 27 outs. Assume the offensive core is 80% of the offense and everyone else is worth 4.3 runs per 27 outs. So that’s ((5.09*8) + (4.3+2))/10 or 4.90 runs scored. That works out to a .700 winning percentage, so the Pirates should go 22-10 in Skenes’ starts. 68-62 in the other games gets them to 90-72. Skenes may actually be much better than the Marcels projection, as it’s based on less than two full seasons. The Cubs and the Brewers seem a bit weaker. Maybe this is the Pirates year. Buy your tickets early!

Chicago Cubs

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.29
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.15
• Core Winning Percentage: .619

The Cubs project to the best offensive core in the division at 5.29 RC/G, and it is a deep and balanced lineup. Seiya Suzuki (5.94 in right), Michael Busch (5.83 at first), Moises Ballesteros (5.61 at DH), and Alex Bregman (5.57 at third) give Chicago four hitters projecting above 5.50 RC/G. Ian Happ (5.43 in left) and Nico Hoerner (5.10 at second) keep the lineup from having a soft spot anywhere in the middle of the order. There is no Aaron Judge or Juan Soto here, but this is a lineup without holes.

The pitching is where Chicago edges closer to the Pirates than the gap in CWP might suggest. Cade Horton (3.59 RC/G) and Shota Imanaga (3.92) form a strong top two in the rotation. Matthew Boyd (4.29) and Edward Cabrera (4.46) are solid mid-rotation options. Jameson Taillon (4.50) rounds out the staff adequately. Daniel Palencia (4.12) is a serviceable closer. The rotation lacks the elite ace the Pirates have in Skenes, but it is consistent from top to bottom.

The up-the-middle average of 4.80 is the third best in the division, and the combination of a deep lineup and a functional rotation makes Chicago one of the more complete teams in the NL Central. The Cubs project to contend for the division title all season.

Milwaukee Brewers

• Position Player RC/G Average: 5.08
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.11
• Core Winning Percentage: .604

Brandon Woodruff’s return to the rotation is the story of the Brewers’ season. After missing all of 2024 and much of 2025 with a shoulder injury — and then suffering further setbacks when he did return last year — he projects to 3.35 RC/G, the second best starter projection in the division behind only Skenes. The Marcels are working with limited innings from him, so that projection is heavily regressed toward the mean; the real Woodruff at full health may be better still. If he can stay on the field for a full season, Milwaukee’s rotation looks considerably more dangerous. Jacob Misiorowski (4.06) and Abner Uribe closing at 3.22 RC/G give the Brewers additional pitching assets. This is a staff that can keep games close.

The offense has Jackson Chourio (5.86 in left) and Christian Yelich (5.86 at DH) as its twin engines, both projecting identically and both capable of carrying the lineup on a good night. William Contreras (5.97 at catcher) gives Milwaukee one of the best offensive catchers in the National League. Sal Frelick (5.03 in right) and Garrett Mitchell (5.00 in center) are consistent contributors in the outfield.

The weak spot is shortstop. Joey Ortiz projects to just 3.94 RC/G, the softest position in an otherwise productive lineup, and it drags the up-the-middle average to 4.96. The Brewers have enough overall offense to compensate, but Ortiz is the obvious target for a mid-season upgrade if one becomes available.

Milwaukee has the pitching upside to challenge for the division title if Woodruff stays healthy, and the offense to stay competitive even in his absence. They are the third team in what looks like a genuinely tight three-way race at the top of the division.

Pinto writes: I stopped underestimating the Brewers. Like the Rays in the AL this team often offers more than meets the eye.

Cincinnati Reds

• Position Player RC/G Average: 4.95
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.42
• Core Winning Percentage: .556

Elly De La Cruz at shortstop (5.83 RC/G) is the most exciting player on this roster, and at seasonal age 24 he is still ascending. The up-the-middle average of 5.24 is the best in the division, with De La Cruz and TJ Friedl (5.28 in center) driving a strong number at those key defensive positions. That is an asset when looking at what can be improved at the trade deadline — the corners are easier to upgrade than the middle, and Cincinnati has the middle covered.

The offense is solid in spots but uneven overall. Sal Stewart (5.37 at first) and Eugenio Suarez (5.04 at DH) are productive contributors. The concern is Ke’Bryan Hayes at third base, who projects to just 3.79 RC/G — the weakest position projection on the team and one of the softer spots in the division. Noelvi Marte (4.64 in right) is another below-average contributor.

The rotation has more promise than it gets credit for. Chase Burns (4.13 RC/G) and Andrew Abbott (4.31) are legitimate mid-rotation arms, and Nick Lodolo (4.54) and Rhett Lowder (4.50) give Cincinnati solid depth. Brady Singer (4.98) is the one arm who projects to give back runs at a concerning rate. Emilio Pagan (3.82) is a capable closer.

The Reds are a step behind the top three teams in this division, but they are not far behind. De La Cruz alone makes them dangerous on any given night, and if the rotation performs to the middle of its range, Cincinnati could push for a wild card.

St. Louis Cardinals

• Position Player RC/G Average: 4.64
• Pitcher RC/G Average: 4.58
• Core Winning Percentage: .507

Ivan Herrera at DH projects to 6.36 RC/G, the best offensive projection on the Cardinals roster and a sign that the organization has developed a genuine middle-of-the-order bat from within. Alec Burleson (5.12 at first) is a consistent contributor. Beyond those two, however, the Cardinals’ lineup is populated by players projecting at or below league average. Victor Scott II in center (3.73) and Pedro Pages at catcher (3.82) are significant liabilities, and the up-the-middle average of 4.20 is the worst in the division by a considerable margin. St. Louis will struggle to manufacture runs on nights when Herrera is not carrying the offense.

The rotation has some depth without a clear ace. Kyle Leahy (3.94 RC/G) is the most effective starter on the staff and a solid mid-rotation arm. Michael McGreevy (4.15) is a competent second option. Matthew Liberatore (4.85), Dustin May (4.98), and Andre Pallante (4.91) round out a back end that is serviceable but unlikely to dominate opposing lineups. Riley O’Brien (4.66) is a below-average closer by division standards.

A .507 core winning percentage means the Cardinals’ best players project to barely break even, and the rest of the roster will pull them well below that. This looks like a year of transition in St. Louis, with the organization needing to find upgrades at several positions before the Cardinals can challenge the teams at the top of this division.

Predictions

Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.

• Pittsburgh Pirates 30%
• Chicago Cubs 28%
• Milwaukee Brewers 25%
• Cincinnati Reds 14%
• St. Louis Cardinals 3%

The NL Central sets up as one of the best three-team races in baseball. The Pirates have the best pitcher in the division in Skenes and a pitching staff that can keep them in almost every game. The Cubs have the deepest lineup. The Brewers have the biggest upside card in a healthy Woodruff. Any of those three teams could win this division, and it would be no surprise if all three finish above .500. The Reds will keep things interesting with De La Cruz, but the gap between them and the top three is real. The Cardinals need a significant offseason before they can rejoin the conversation at the top of this division.

Pinto writes: It looks to me like Claude.AI got the probabilities right, although I may have gone 26% for the Brewers and 13% for the Reds, just to make the gaps more even. I hope Pirates fans have an inkling of what’s in store for them. I also hope the team will be willing to add at the trade dead-line if a deep playoff run appears possible.