For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.358, 0.739 — Ketel Marte batting at Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.334, 0.709 — Geraldo Perdomo batting at Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.334, 0.715 — Lourdes Gurriel batting at Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.324, 0.699 — Adrian Del Castillo batting at Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.319, 0.688 — Alek Thomas batting at Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.317, 0.687 — Corbin Carroll batting at Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.314, 0.684 — Connor Kaiser batting at Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.313, 0.684 — Blaze Alexander batting at Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.310, 0.677 — James McCann batting at Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.304, 0.709 — Aaron Judge batting at Miles Mikolas.
Marte collected 12 hits in 34 PA against Senzatela, a .353 hit average. So Log5 is right on with this pair.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.358, 0.739 — Ketel Marte batting at Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.334, 0.715 — Lourdes Gurriel batting at Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.283, 0.712 — Miguel Andujar batting vs. Jose Quintana.
- 0.304, 0.709 — Aaron Judge batting at Miles Mikolas.
- 0.334, 0.709 — Geraldo Perdomo batting at Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.285, 0.706 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting vs. Davis Martin.
- 0.290, 0.704 — Trea Turner batting at Mitchell Parker.
- 0.300, 0.702 — Romy Gonzalez batting vs. Janson Junk.
- 0.289, 0.701 — Jeremy Pena batting vs. Dean Kremer.
- 0.295, 0.699 — Nico Hoerner batting vs. Carmen Mlodzinski.
- 0.296, 0.699 — Chandler Simpson batting at Logan Webb.
The NN isn’t as Diamondbacks heavy, but Marte and Gurriel come out as the consensus double down picks.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!