The 2022 series on team offense continues with the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs finished twenty first in the majors and eleventh in the National League in 2021 with 4.35 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That David Ross batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections.   That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

• Best lineup: 4.92
• Probable lineup: 4.89
• Worst lineup: 4.64
• Regressed lineup: 4.53

My first question when I typed in the Cubs lineup was, “Why is Nick Madrigal batting ninth?” The Musings Marcels projection is in line with other systems. The Cubs are protecting Madrigal as he returns from right hamstring surgery.

It turns out that Madrigal batting ninth does work. Of the top thirty lineups calculated by the LAT, Rafael Ortega leads off and Nick Madrigal bats ninth in two of them. The lineup with those two players a the top and the bottom gives the Cubs 89.3% of the optimum lineup, the best in the study so far.

The LAT provided other surprises. I don’t see Ian Happ as a clean-up hitters, but a few of the top lineups bat him fourth, and often fifth. Frank Schwindel, who seems like clean-up hitter, makes appearances in the two slot. With the default lineup nailing Patrick Wisdom sixth and Andrelton Simmons eighth, this a very well constructed lineup.

If Madrigal remains healthy, the Cubs likely move him to the lead-off slot, and the offense gets a bit better. Note that while the Cardinals lineup has a higher potential, better lineup construction brings the Cubs into parity.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

• Introduction
• Houston Astros
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Boston Red Sox
• San Francisco Giants
• Chicago White Sox
• Atlanta Braves
• Colorado Rockies
• Oakland Athletics
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Minnesota Twins
• San Diego Padres
• Washington Nationals
• Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
• Cleveland Guardians
• New York Yankees
• St. Louis Cardinals

*This is the best version of this information I’ve seen, with everything you might want to know on one page.