The 2022 series on team offense continues with the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals finished twentieth in the majors and tenth in the National League in 2021 with 4.36 runs scored per game.

This season I am using FanGraphs Roster Resource Depth Charts* as the source of default lineups. That Oli Marmol batting order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections.   That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

• Best lineup: 4.95
• Probable lineup: 4.89
• Worst lineup: 4.71
• Regressed lineup: 4.53

When I look at the lineup and see Paul Goldschmidt batting second, then Paul DeJong and Harrison Bader eighth and ninth respectively, I think this team gets it. Then I see Tommy Edman in the lead-off slot and Yadier Molina batting sixth, and I get the exact opposite feeling.

This brings in the human element of lineup construction. There is player mindset. Matt Carpenter showed impressive power when he batted in the lead-off slot. The Cardinals tried to move him lower in the order, where his power might do more good, but Carpenter failed to succeed in that regard. Some players feel they need to change their approach based on where they bat in the order. In reality, the approach that works for them should work anywhere. I suspect that may be a reason Paul Goldschmidt does not lead off; his mindset is that of an RBI hitter, not a table setter.

On top of that, Marmol may own a bias in favor of players like Edman. Marmol never hit well in the minor leagues, but he did steal bases well. Edman can run, so possibly Marmol sees Edman as causing some havoc on the bases at the top of the order. Of course, because Goldschmidt is adept at hitting both doubles and home runs, Edman might easily score from first.

The final human element in this lineup is ego. Molina serves as the face of the Cardinals. I suspect he would be offended batting lower than sixth in the order. If his offense continues to wane, maybe Marmol can convince him to bat eighth, but the rookie manager will not force that on the home town hero.

In the end, this lineup produces ten fewer runs than the optimum order. It possible more runs are lost using that optimum if they players are uncomfortable in those roles.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in this series:

• Introduction
• Houston Astros
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Boston Red Sox
• San Francisco Giants
• Chicago White Sox
• Atlanta Braves
• Colorado Rockies
• Oakland Athletics
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Minnesota Twins
• San Diego Padres
• Washington Nationals
• Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
• Cleveland Guardians
• New York Yankees

*This is the best version of this information I’ve seen, with everything you might want to know on one page.