Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.
I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.
First, the Log5 Method picks:
0.333 — Corey Dickerson batting against Ty Blach.
0.321 — David Peralta batting against Matt Harvey.
0.311 — Starling Marte batting against Ty Blach.
0.306 — Adam Frazier batting against Ty Blach.
0.301 — David Freese batting against Ty Blach.
0.300 — Austin Meadows batting against Ty Blach.
0.299 — Elias Diaz batting against Ty Blach.
0.298 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.297 — A.J. Pollock batting against Matt Harvey.
0.295 — Matt M Duffy batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.295 — Mookie Betts batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.294 — Jon Jay batting against Matt Harvey.
0.289 — Eduardo Escobar batting against Matt Harvey.
0.288 — Adeiny Hechavarria batting against Ty Blach.
0.288 — Josh Harrison batting against Ty Blach.
0.284 — Colin Moran batting against Ty Blach.
0.284 — Albert Almora batting against Tanner Roark.
0.284 — J.D. Martinez batting against Yefry Ramirez.
0.283 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Matt Harvey.
0.281 — Mookie Betts batting against Yefry Ramirez.
0.279 — Miguel Andujar batting against Drew Hutchison.
0.279 — Joey Wendle batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.279 — Jordy Mercer batting against Ty Blach.
0.279 — Javier Baez batting against Tanner Roark.
0.278 — Josh Bell batting against Ty Blach.
With a .311 BA and a .344 OBP, Dickerson reaches base mostly by hits, which is the kind of batter one needs to extend a streak. He suffered some injuries this season, so the Pirates don’t start him every day, however. In general, it looks like a good day for the Pirates against Blach, who gives up a lot of hits by not a lot of walks.
Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:
0.333, 0.741 — Corey Dickerson batting against Ty Blach.
0.321, 0.734 — David Peralta batting against Matt Harvey.
0.298, 0.729 — J.D. Martinez batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.284, 0.723 — J.D. Martinez batting against Yefry Ramirez.
0.295, 0.720 — Mookie Betts batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.277, 0.720 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jon Lester.
0.311, 0.719 — Starling Marte batting against Ty Blach.
0.295, 0.716 — Matt M Duffy batting against Sam Gaviglio.
0.281, 0.714 — Mookie Betts batting against Yefry Ramirez.
0.284, 0.713 — Albert Almora batting against Tanner Roark.
0.306, 0.709 — Adam Frazier batting against Ty Blach.
0.271, 0.705 — Freddie Freeman batting against Wade Miley.
0.275, 0.703 — Jose Martinez batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.269, 0.703 — Scooter Gennett batting against Robbie Ray.
0.279, 0.702 — Javier Baez batting against Tanner Roark.
0.271, 0.702 — Nick Markakis batting against Wade Miley.
0.279, 0.701 — Miguel Andujar batting against Drew Hutchison.
0.277, 0.700 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.267, 0.700 — Nolan Arenado batting against Walker Buehler.
0.297, 0.699 — A.J. Pollock batting against Matt Harvey.
0.294, 0.699 — Jon Jay batting against Matt Harvey.
0.261, 0.698 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Walker Buehler.
0.271, 0.697 — Adam Jones batting against William Cuevas.
0.263, 0.697 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.270, 0.696 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Jimmy Yacabonis.
0.301, 0.696 — David Freese batting against Ty Blach.
0.258, 0.696 — Eddie Rosario batting against Francisco Liriano.
Dickerson and Peralta are the unanimous first and second choices. Note that some Red Sox players appear twice on the list, as they play a double header against the Orioles.
Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!