For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.359, 0.736 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.345, 0.721 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.329, 0.699 — Spencer Horwitz batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.329, 0.699 — Tommy Pham batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.327, 0.701 — Bryan Reynolds batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.318, 0.686 — Billy Cook batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.309, 0.675 — Nick Solak batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.307, 0.672 — Liover Peguero batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.305, 0.671 — Ronny Simon batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.304, 0.706 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
It’s pick your favorite Pirates batter as the Rockies visit Pittsburgh. Gonzales is not a bad pick. He puts the ball in play a decent amount with a high BABIP.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.359, 0.736 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.345, 0.721 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.278, 0.717 — Miguel Andujar batting at Ryne Nelson.
- 0.295, 0.715 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Casey Mize.
- 0.281, 0.709 — Xavier Edwards batting vs. Shane Bieber.
- 0.304, 0.706 — Chandler Simpson batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
- 0.281, 0.704 — Trea Turner batting vs. Cade Cavalli.
- 0.294, 0.702 — Yandy Diaz batting vs. Miles Mikolas.
- 0.282, 0.702 — Bo Bichette batting at Tyler Phillips.
- 0.293, 0.701 — Jeremy Pena batting at Cade Povich.
- 0.327, 0.701 — Bryan Reynolds batting vs. Antonio Senzatela.
The NN is not as Pirate heavy, but still puts Gonzales and Kiner-Falefa at the top.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!