The Red Sox visit the Rays Thursday to kick-off the outer seeds round of the ALDS. Here is a comparison of the offenses:
| Offense (AL Ranks) | Boston Red Sox | Tampa Bay Rays |
| Runs per Game | 5.12 (4th) | 5.29 (2nd) |
| Batting Average | .261(3rd) | .242 (7th-T) |
| On Base Percentage | .328 (4th) | .321 (6th) |
| Slugging Average | .449 (2nd) | .428 (4th) |
| Home Runs | 219 (6th) | 222 (3rd-T) |
| Stolen Base Percentage | 66% (15th) | 68% (14th) |
Like the Brewers, the Rays runs per game rank is better than the combination of their average elements. Unlike the Brewers, the reason is clear. The Rays hit 113 of their 222 home runs with men on base, 49.1%. That was the highest percentage of home runs with men on base in the AL, and second in the majors to the Marlins. The Rays also averaged 1.7 runs per home run, also second in the majors to the Marlins. Boston hit 41.1% of their home runs with men on base, averaging 1.6 runs per home run. While the Red Sox offense is better on averages, the Rays make up the difference with great situational hitting.
Both teams proved that stealing bases well was not that important to generating a lot of runs.
Here is a comparison of the pitching and defense.
| Pitching and Defense (AL Ranks) | Boston Red Sox | Tampa Bay Rays |
| Runs Allowed per Game | 4.62 (8th-T) | 4.02 (2nd) |
| Earned Run Average | 4.26 (7th) | 3.67 (1st) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 9.7 (3rd) | 9.1 (6th-T) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 3.5 (11th) | 2.7 (1st) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 24.8 (1st) | 25.3 (2nd) |
| Defensive Efficiency | .659 (15th) | .706 (2nd) |
Both teams show a strength that covering a weakness on the pitching side. The Rays are middle of the road in strikeouts and walk few batters. That means a lot of balls in play, and the Rays have a defense that turns those into outs. The Red Sox strikeout batters at a much better rate, which covers their inability to stop balls in play from turning into base runners. They also limit damage from their walks by keeping the ball in the park.
The Red Sox strikeouts should be an advantage in this series. The Rays batters led the AL in Ks, and they rank high in walks, so they don’t put the ball in play to take advantage of the Red Sox defense. Boston is pretty good at limiting home runs, so this could all work in Boston’s favor.
Still, the Rays score well and prevent runs well. I like them in this series with a 53% chance of winning.
Correction: The post originally had the Red Sox scoring 4.12 runs per game, when it should have been 5.12 runs per game. The rank was correct, however.