Tag Archives: Vladimir Guerrero

July 31, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Aaron Judge and Juan Soto rank one two respectively after the Yankees take a great game against the Phillies , 7-6 in twelve innings. Judge went three four for with two walks to raise his batting average to .319, third in the AL. Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals leads with a .347 mark. There’s an outside shot that Judge could pull off a triple crown. Soto singled and walked twice. Witt, who ranks fourth, went one for three with a walk in a 4-3 win over the White Sox. Chicago only has three wins in July.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ranks third after a one for two with two walks in a 6-2 Orioles win. That raises his OBP to .383.

Brent Rooker, still of the Athletics, celebrated not getting traded with a home run and a walk in a 5-2 win over the Giants. Rooker stands third in RBI and fifth in slugging percentage in the AL.

The best game score of the day came off the bat of Eugenio Suarez of Diamondbacks, a 92. That’s the fourteenth game score of 90 or better this season, and the fifth in July. He went four for six with three home runs in a 17-0 rout of the Nationals. Suarez drove in five of those runs. His power remains down, however, as he is slugging just .414 on the season.

July 30, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr.holds the third slot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings with two great games on Monday, including the high game score of the day, an 86 in game two of the doubleheader at Baltimore. He went three for five with a home run in game one, an 11-5 Orioles win, and four for five with three doubles, an intentional walk, and a home run in game two. Toronto took the night cap 8-4. Guerrero now trail Juan Soto of the Yankees by six points.

Aaron Judge and Soto both posted good batting lines in the Yankees 14-4 win over the Phillies. Judge hit two home runs in five trips to the plate, while Soto went three for five with two doubles. They rank 1-2 respectively.

Bobby Witt Jr. drops to fourth place as he goes four for four with a double and a home run in an 8-5 Royals win. He is now 7 for 11 career against Chris Flexen. Witt’s game score of 81 was third best of the day.

Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks moves into the top five after a long absence. He went three for five with a home run in the 9-8 walk-off win over the Nationals. Arizona scored five runs in the bottom of the ninth inning, including Marte’s two-run shot and Corbin Carroll‘s two-run game ending pinch hit homer. Marte had a bit of an up and down career, but the ups have been great, and this season his power is back to his 2019 and 2021 levels.

July 29, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees continue to rank one and two respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Both came to the plate five times in the 8-2 win over the Red Sox Sunday night. Judge collected a hit and two walks, while Soto walked twice. They lead the majors in walks, with Soto on top, by a wide margin.

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers ranks third, with Vladimir Guerrero of the Blue Jays fourth, just 0.02 points behind. Ohtani drew a walk in a 6-2 win over the Astros, while Guerrero singled and homered in a 7-3 win over the Rangers.

Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals rounds out the top five with a one for four in a 7-3 Cubs win.

Xavier Edwards of the Marlins hit for the cycle and drew a walk for a game score of 87, the highest of the day. I discussed the rarity of the cycle with a walk here.

July 28, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Aaron Judge remains in first place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after posting the highest game score of the day on Saturday, an 88. Judge goes four for four with two walks, a double, and a home run in an 11-8, ten inning win over the Red Sox. His teammate, Juan Soto, falls a little farther behind in second place after only going two for five with a walk and a home run.

Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers moves back up to third place as he posted a two for three with two walks and a home run in a 7-6 Astros win. Alex Bregman of the Astros, who now ranks 18th, hit a walk-off home run in the comeback win.

Bobby Witt Jr.of the Royals ranks fourth after a one for four in a 9-4 Cubs win. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays moves into the fifth slot. He collected three hits in five at bats, one of them a double in a 7-3 win over the Rangers.

July 25, 2024

Best Batter Today

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The games of Wednesday brought a shakeup to the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Juan Soto and Aaron Judge of the Yankees swap the 1-2 slots in a 12-3 Mets win. Soto posted a two for three with a walk, and double, and a home run, while Judge went 0 for 3 and was lifted early. That gives Soto a three point lead. In the same game, Francisco Lindor of the Mets moves into fourth place as he goes three for six with two home runs, driving in five runs from the leadoff slot for a game score of 78, the second highest on the day. Lindor owns a .304/.392/.601 slash line since June 4th, helping him rise in the rankings. Twenty six of his fifty one hits in that time went for extra bases.

Bobby Witt Jr. of the Royals posted a three for four in an 8-6 Diamondbacks win. He now trails Steven Kwan of the Guardians by one point in the AL batting race, .345 to .344.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays takes fifth place after a tow for three with a walk and home run in a 6-3 win over the Rays. He homered in five of his last six games.

Jacob Stallings of the Rockies produced the highest game score of the day, an 81. The catcher, batting eighth, went three for four with two doubles and a home run in the 20-7 drubbing of the Red Sox. Stalling is having a good year at the plate in limited duty, with a .272/.266/.456 slash line. Those are all well above his career averages. While Coors helps, he’s batting much better on the road as well.

June 30, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Aaron Judge of the Yankees remains atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after a two for three with a walk in the 9-3 Blue Jays win. His teammate, Juan Soto, sat out the game with a bruised hand and sits in third place. In the same game, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went three for five with a double and a home run, giving him the highest game score of the day, a 75. Guerrero is now hitting .296/.372/.470 on the season. Guerrero slugged .383 through games of May 22. Since then, he’s slugged .587. He ranks seventh.

Gunnar Henderson of the Orioles remains in second place after a two for five with a double in the 6-5 win over Texas. Shohei Ohtani ranks fourth after a home run and two walks in a 14-7, extra-inning win over the Giants. The injured Bryce Harper of the Phillies rounds out the top five.

June 7, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees remain one and two respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Both drew two walks in the 8-5 win over the Twins, but Soto was removed with arm discomfort. He will undergo imaging to help diagnose the extent of the injury.

Jose Ramirez of the Guardians ranks third after he walked, singled and homered in a 5-4 Royals win. Gunnar Henderson of the Orioles sits fourth as he doubled and walked in a 6-5 Blue Jays win. His opponent in that game, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.singled, walked, and homered to move back into fifth place.

The best game score of the day came off the bat of Jarren Duran of the Red Sox, a 78. He went four for five with a walk and a home run as the team destroyed the White Sox 14-2. Duran collected multiple hits in three of his five June games.

The White Sox lost their 14th game in a row, and now own a .238 winning percentage. South Side Sox documents the futility of the team and the record setting game.

In the end, the White Sox were outhit, 24-4, as the pitching staff took its Major League Baseball-high 23 hits allowed just a week ago at Milwaukee and raised it by one. The 24 hits allowed fell just two shy of the all-time record of hits allowed by the White Sox and is tied for the eighth-most ever given up by the team. Seven of the 19-biggest opponent-hitting outbursts (that’s a game of 23 hits or more, in this context) have come this century.

Also, only two times in the history of the White Sox — that is 19,210 games, if you’re counting — have the White Sox been out-hit by more than 20, like tonight.

SouthsideSpx.com

This is the second season in a row that a team is threatening the 1962 Mets record for low winning percentage. I thought the last CBA was supposed to address that.

June 4, 2024

Best Batter Today

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The Yankees and Guardians sat idle on Monday, so Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Jose Ramirez remain 1-2-3 respectively in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Gunnar Henderson of the Orioles and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays squared off in Toronto. Henderson went one for five with a double to hold fourth place, while Guerrero singled and homered for fifth place. The Orioles took the game 7-2.

The best game score on Monday belonged to Nolan Gorman of the Cardinals. He went two for two with a walk and two home runs in a 7-4 Astros win. Gorman continues to be about walks and power with a .230/.318/.494 slash line. Twenty one of his 41 hits resulted in extra bases, and he add 23 walks to the mix. At seasonal age 24, he’s upped his power with .494 slugging percentage compared to a .463 career mark. His BA and OBP are right in line with his career averages.

In the game, Kyle Tucker of the Astros, ranked eighth, left the game after a foul off his foot. X-rays were negative.

June 2, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Aaron Judge of the Yankees continued his power surge as he went two for three with walk and a home run in a 7-3 win over the Giants. That keeps Judge in first place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He leads the AL in extra-base hits with 39, eight more than Bobby Witt Jr.of the Royals and total bases with 143, nine more than his teammate, Juan Soto. Soto ranks second after a two for three game with a sacrifice fly. Judge leads Soto by almost 13 points.

Jose Ramirez of the Guardians ranks third as he went two for four in a 3-2 win over the Nationals.

Kyle Tucker of the Astros homered and walked in a 5-2 over the Twins to return to fourth place. His teammate, Yordan Alvarez, collected a walk and three hits, including two home runs, for a game score of 85, the best of the day. Alvarez owns a decent .283/.357/.480 slash line, That’s good, but down some from his awesome previous two seasons. Given his history, that’s good enough for him to rank eighth.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays took back the fifth spot with two hits and a walk in an 8-1 Pirates win.

May 31, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees remain 1-2 in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after an 8-3 win over the Angels. Judge homered in five trips to the plate giving him 24 extra-base hits in May. He is one of nine hitters to reach that level since 1920, and ties Babe Ruth (1928) and Lou Gehrig (1927) for the Yankees record for the month. Only Ty Cobb with 26 in 1921 and Earl Webb with 25 in 1931 have more in May in that time period. This is the second year in a row a player reached that level, as Freddie Freeman hit 24 in 2023.

Soto went one for three with a triple and two walks, his second triple of the year.

Jose Ramirez of the Guardians sits in third place as Cleveland took the day off. Kyle Tucker of the Astros singled in four trips to the plate in a 4-0 win over the Mariners and ranks fourth. The Blue Jays were also idle on Thursday, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.holds fifth place.

Francisco Lindor of the Mets posted a game score of 79, the best of the day in a 3-2 win over the Diamondbacks. Lindor went four for four with a home run and drove in two of the three Mets runs. No one behind him did much, as the homer led to the only run he scored in the game. Even with the perfect day at the play, Lindor’s OBP stands at .291. In the leadoff slot, however, Lindor is slashing .309/.371/.491 in 62 PA. So far, that move is working.

May 30, 2024

Best Batter Today

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The fifth slot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings keeps changing hands as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays moves into the slot. Right now, positions four through eight are only separated by four points. Guerrero singled and walked in a 3-1 win over the White Sox.

Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees remain 1-2 as they take part in a 2-1 win over the Angels. Both drew two walks and Soto added a single. Kyle Tucker of the Astros sits in third place after an 0 for 4 with three strikeouts in a 2-1 Mariners win. Jose Ramirez of the Guardians ranks fourth as he goes one for four with a double in a 7-4 Rockies win.

Andrew McCutchen of the Pirates and Will Smith of the Dodgers tied for the highest game score of the day, a 79. McCutchen posted a three for four with a walk double, and home run in a game two, 10-2 over the Tigers. McCutchen is now 28 EXBH away from 800 for his career. Smith went three for five with two home runs in a 10-3 drubbing of the Mets. He’s slugging .516 for the season.

May 27, 2024

Best Batter Today

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays uses a four for five day with a double to move into fifth place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Guerrero got off to a slow start, drawing walks but not much else through his first 27 games, resulting in a .206/.319/.324 slash line. Since then, he’s hitting .403/.473/.536. It’s a nice example of how much variation can occur in small sample sizes, even in great hitters.

Guerrero’s efforts did not lead to a win, however, as the Tigers took the game 14-11. Matt Vierling hit a walk off home run in the ninth, part of a four for six day with two home runs and four RBI. That game score of 84 topped the day.

The top four in the ranking did not change. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto of the Yankees remain one and two respectively. Judge singled while Soto singled and walked in the 5-2 Padres win. Jose Ramirez of the Guardians walked twice in the 5-4 win over the Angels and sits in third place. Kyle Tucker of the Astros homered and walked in a 5-2 win over the Athletics for fourth place.

March 28, 2024

My Three Sons

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Three baseball sons on the Blue Jays post good games as Toronto defeats the Rays 8-2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up just one hit in five at bats, but the one hit left the park. Bo Bichette doubled, singled and walked, driving in two runs and scoring one. Cavan Biggio got his starting job back this year. He homered and walked twice, scoring twice.

These are the three players that were supposed to be at the heart of the Blue Jays resurgence, and today they delivered.

February 18, 2024

Vlad in Shape

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Players in the best shape of their lives stories dominate early spring training, but I find this one on Vlad Guerrero Jr concerning:

Guerrero has been working out with personal trainer Nicole Gabriel for much of the winter, and by the looks of images and videos posted to her Instagram account, the results are impressive.

Of course that sounds like a familiar off-season refrain for the player long believed to have the most potential from this talented group of Jays players. Yes, the subject of Guerrero’s fitness has been a hot topic for the 24-year-old slugger, but an area where he has once again publicly committed to improve. Over time, some of the criticism has been justified, but some of it is over the top as he has worked through some struggles in his young career.

TorontoSun.com

He posted a 6.3 fWAR at seasonal age 22, then saw in drop to 2.8 and 1.0. If a player posts a 6.3 WAR at age 22, that should be indicative of long term success, since he still has years to improve.

I suspect part of the motivation comes from being two seasons away from free agency. A six WAR player hitting free agency in the middle of his prime years should bring an historic contract. The Blue Jays certainly hope an improvement happens, as they underperformed expectations the last two seasons. We’ll see if the winter workouts win, and how long the motivation lasts.

July 10, 2023 May 26, 2023

Jays Mistakes

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George Springer of the Blue Jays leads off the game against the Twins with a double, and moves to third on a long fly ball by Bo Bichette. Vladimir Guerrero then grounds to shortstop, Carlos Correa, who runs down Springer for the first out. Correa then throws to first where Guerrero made the turn for second, and the Twins get the double play. It’s a play that seems to epitomize the poor performance by the Blue Jays lately.

May 21, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

The Blue Jays should look good against Kremer. He sports low K and BB rates, so teams put the ball in play against him. Those balls find holes as he owns a .322 opposition BABIP. In addition, he allowed eight home runs in 47 1/3 innings.

Kiermaier shows up as he is hitting well above his career averages this season, and my formula for Log5 weighs the current season evenly with the three latest seasons.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.315, 0.755 — Luis Arraez batting against Alex Wood.
  • 0.330, 0.738 — Bo Bichette batting against Dean Kremer.
  • 0.297, 0.704 — Ronald Acuna batting against George Kirby.
  • 0.270, 0.702 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jack Flaherty.
  • 0.302, 0.701 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Dean Kremer.
  • 0.280, 0.699 — Nico Hoerner batting against Taijuan Walker.
  • 0.280, 0.699 — Joey Meneses batting against Joey Wentz.
  • 0.297, 0.693 — Ezequiel Duran batting against Connor Seabold.
  • 0.271, 0.691 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Roansy Contreras.
  • 0.299, 0.690 — Kevin Kiermaier batting against Dean Kremer.

This is a similar list, with Bichette and Arraez flipped. They are the consensus double down choices for today, and their probability of getting a hit far exceeds everyone else on the list.

Note that Guerrero holds a much better history against Kremer than Bichette. Guerrero stands 6 for 16 with a double, four home runs, two walks, and three strikeouts. Bichette is 2 for 14 with four walks and three K.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

May 1, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Aaron Judge is not on the illjured list, but is unlikely to play due to a hip injury. The Braves and Mets play an afternoon doubleheader in Queens, so if you choose a player from one of those games:

  1. Get your pick in early.
  2. Make sure of the starting pitcher.

It looks like the Blue Jays should hit Kluber well. He allowed 24 hits and seven home runs in 24 innings this season. Bichette, Guerrero, and Chapman make a pretty fearsome threesome for the Jays.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.291, 0.718 — Bo Bichette batting against Corey Kluber.
  • 0.278, 0.694 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Luke Weaver.
  • 0.274, 0.693 — Alex Verdugo batting against Jose Berrios.
  • 0.271, 0.685 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Corey Kluber.
  • 0.249, 0.685 — Nico Hoerner batting against MacKenzie Gore.
  • 0.271, 0.676 — Ronald Acuna batting against Tylor Megill.
  • 0.249, 0.672 — Joey Meneses batting against Drew Smyly.
  • 0.246, 0.672 — Freddie Freeman batting against Taijuan Walker.
  • 0.256, 0.671 — Thairo Estrada batting against Luis Garcia.
  • 0.262, 0.669 — Whit Merrifield batting against Corey Kluber.

The two systems agree on the top three, with Bichette and Bogaerts the double down choice. Probabilities are low after Bichette, however, so it may not be a good day to pick two.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

April 13, 2023

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

It looks like a good day for the Blue Jays, as Turnbull allowed a .394 BA in his first two starts. He only stuck out four batters in eight innings. Bichette is batting .327 as he cut down on his K’s this season.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.276, 0.699 — Bo Bichette batting against Spencer Turnbull.
  • 0.253, 0.691 — Trea Turner batting against Nick Lodolo.
  • 0.273, 0.691 — Wander Franco batting against Corey Kluber.
  • 0.275, 0.689 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Spencer Turnbull.
  • 0.266, 0.688 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Vincent Velasquez.
  • 0.263, 0.687 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Bryse Wilson.
  • 0.267, 0.685 — Tyler Stephenson batting against Bailey Falter.
  • 0.262, 0.681 — Harold Ramirez batting against Corey Kluber.
  • 0.258, 0.669 — Nolan Arenado batting against Vincent Velasquez.
  • 0.251, 0.668 — Manny Machado batting against Bryse Wilson.

It’s a very similar list. Trea Turner finishes high here, while he does not appear on the NN list at all. Over the years, Turner tends to do well in the NN analysis. Franco and Guerrero tie for the consensus second pick.

Rookie Jordan Walker of the Cardinals hit in his first twelve games, tied for the longest hit streak in the majors right now with Bryson Stott of the Phillies. The NN gives Walker a .638 probability of getting at least one hit today, mostly because all his numbers are highly regressed to the mean hit average of .222. He has struck out eleven times in forty eight PA, and I don’t believe that bodes well for a long hit streak.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

September 26, 2022

Vlad’s Vliner

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. beats the Yankees with a line drive single in the bottom of the tenth inning as Toronto takes game one of their series with New York 3-2. He hit the ball hard. It was the definition of a screaming line drive. It seemed to be past the infielders before they knew the ball was hit.

Aaron Judge goes one for three in the game with two walks, the second an intentional pass in the top of the tenth. The Yankees had men on first and second with two out. The Blue Jays brought on a left-handed pitcher, which I though was odd with Judge at the plate. They walked Judge to face Anthony Rizzo, and the LHB ground to first base, setting up the Toronto win.

The Blue Jays stay alive in the AL East race.

August 15, 2022

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Guerrero’s hit streak ended on Sunday with an 0 for 4. It looks like he has a good chance to start another today, as do most of the Blue Jays. The rookie Bradish allowed 77 hits in 61 2/3 innings this season.

Note that Detroit plays a doubleheader at Cleveland today, so be careful picking from those games.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.309, 0.733 — Luis Arraez batting against Kris Bubic.
  • 0.329, 0.730 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Kyle Bradish.
  • 0.291, 0.719 — Luis Robert batting against Jose Urquidy.
  • 0.306, 0.711 — Harold Castro batting against Aaron Civale.
  • 0.312, 0.708 — Raimel Tapia batting against Kyle Bradish.
  • 0.308, 0.708 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Kyle Bradish.
  • 0.307, 0.704 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Kyle Bradish.
  • 0.293, 0.702 — Austin Riley batting against Carlos Carrasco.
  • 0.286, 0.701 — Donovan Solano batting against Noah Syndergaard.
  • 0.302, 0.700 — Bo Bichette batting against Kyle Bradish.

This is not quite so Toronto heavy, but the Blue Jays still do well. Gurriel is the consensus first pick, with Arraez the consensus double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

August 14, 2022

Beat the Streak Picks

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For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

The Log5 Method yields these top picks:

Robert owns a ten-game hit streak in which he is hitting .429. Turner is at eight games hitting .353.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.306, 0.739 — Trea Turner batting against Brady Singer.
  • 0.313, 0.733 — Luis Robert batting against Tyler Alexander.
  • 0.291, 0.724 — Luis Arraez batting against Tucker Davidson.
  • 0.276, 0.715 — Jose Iglesias batting against Tommy Henry.
  • 0.291, 0.710 — Freddie Freeman batting against Brady Singer.
  • 0.306, 0.706 — Manny Machado batting against Paolo Espino.
  • 0.278, 0.702 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Aaron Ashby.
  • 0.293, 0.701 — Amed Rosario batting against Kevin Gausman.
  • 0.283, 0.697 — Austin Riley batting against Braxton Garrett.
  • 0.279, 0.696 — Rafael Devers batting against Jameson Taillon.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.is conspicuous by his absence from the list. He currently holds a twenty-two game hit streak during which he’s hitting .374/.424/.582. Guerrero seldom appears on the list due to the large gap between his BA and his OBP. He is a high average hitter, but he walks so much it cuts into his probability of getting a hit. Note that he walked just seven times during this streak.

Turner and Robert tie for the consensus top pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

June 5, 2022

Best Batter Today

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Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals saw his hitting streak end in game one against the Cubs, but he remains atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Overall, Goldschmidt went one for seven with two walks on the day as the teams split the twin bill, Chicago winning game one 6-1, the Cardinals taking the evening game 7-4 in ten innings.

Mookie Betts of the Dodgers closes the gap between first and second as he goes two for five with a double, but the Mets take the game 9-4. Pete Alonso of the Mets goes three for five with two home runs for the highest game score of the day, a 78. That moves Alonso into fourth place.

Third place belongs to Aaron Judge of the Yankees, one for three with a walk and his MLB leading twenty first home run of the season. Judge is now on a pace for sixty four home runs, but his probability of reaching 62 for a new AL single season record is about 0.003. These paces are tough to maintain, and this probability reflects that.

Judge and Vladimir Guerrero are tied for most home runs since the start of the 2021 season with 60. What is striking is how similar the two are over that time period. The main difference is that Judge strikes out a lot more.

Jose Ramirez of the Guardians rounds out the top five as he goes one for two with a homer and two walks against the Orioles. Baltimore takes the game 5-4. Goldschmidt, Judge, and Ramirez are all tied for third in the majors with 30 extra-base hits.

April 16, 2022

Best Batter Today

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Juan Soto of the Nationals stays atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after collecting two singles and two walks in a 7-2 win over the Pirates. He stands ten points ahead of Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals, who doubled in five trips to the plate as St. Louis beats Milwaukee 10-1. His teammate, Tyler O’Neill, moves back into the top five with a three for five game, including a double. O’Neill ranks fourth.

Matt Olson of the Braves holds third place as he draws two walks in a 5-2 win over the Padres. MacKenzie Gore of the Padres made his MLB debut, getting his first start on the mound. He pitched well, but did not figure in the decision.

Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. of the Blue Jays rounds out the top five as he hit his fifth home run of the season. He added a single and a walk as well. He’s slugging .900 on the season.

The best game score on Friday belongs to Francisco Lindor of the Mets. He collected two home runs and two walks in five plate appearances for an 81. He beats out Adam Frazier of the Mariners who collected four hits and missed the cycle by a home run. Lindor is off to a great start this season, with a .296/.457/.704 slash line. That’s more of what the Mets expected from the star shortstop.

April 14, 2022

Best Batter Today

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The top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings saw a new addition based on games of Wednesday. Juan Soto of the Nationals remains in the top spot as he singles in the 3-1 win over the Braves. Matt Olson of the Braves stays in third place after an 0 for 4 in the same game. Cardinals teammates Paul Goldschmidt and Tyler O’Neill sit second and fifth respectively after a their game against the Royals was postponed.

Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. moves into fourth place after a big night at the plate. His four for four with a double and three home runs was good for a game score of 97. That was the best game score of the day. It is also the best game score of the season by 15 points. For Guerrero, it’s the best game of his career so far. In his short career, he produced six game scores of at least 80, one reason he stands in the top five today.

April 13, 2022

A Little Extra

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Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. of the Blue Jays is having a blast a Yankee Stadium. He just hit his third home run of the game in the top of the eighth inning to help Toronto to a 6-3 lead over the Yankees. His third shot broke a 3-3 tie. Just for extra measure, his other at bat ended in a double. He’s now slugging .957 on the season. He now has 52 home runs in his last 167 games.

November 18, 2021

MVP! MVP!

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The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) announces the winners of the Most Valuable Player Award this evening. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays, Shohei Ohtani of the Angels,, and Marcus Semien of the Blue Jays top the list in the American League. Bryce Harper of the Phillies, Juan Soto of the Nationals, and Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres represent the finalists in the National League. None came from a playoff team.

I find the exclusion of Zack Wheeler from the NL list fascinating. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference show Wheeler with a higher WAR than any batter. He also led the league in innings pitched with 213 1/3. I suspect writers don’t see 213 1/3 innings as a very high total to lead the league, and they’re right. Teams to a great extent have devalued starting pitching, and the writers have followed suit.

The winner in the NL comes down to Haper or Soto, as Tatis’s injuries cut down his playing time compared to the other two. Soto hit .295/.420/.510 before the Nationals fire sale, .342/.528/.574 after. It strikes me that when Soto was the only hitter who could do damage, teams did not pitch as carefully to him. If there was a situation where he might do real damage, they just walked him. Meanwhile, there is a huge split between how FanGraphs and Baseball Reference value Harper. FanGraphs has him second to another former National, Trea Turner, while BR has him ninth in WAR among position players. Given that Harper won the Hank Aaron Award, I suspect Bryce will win in a close vote.

Ohtani is the favorite in the American League. His ability to pitch well and hit well represents tremendous value, as he actually saves a roster spot for his team. Baseball Reference has him posting 4.9 WAR on the batting side, and 4.1 WAR on the pitching side. Either of those seasons would be great alone, but together they are a sure winner. I think this will be a landslide.

I also have to ask, how can Toronto have three players in consideration for the two major awards, good talent around them, and not make the playoffs? They are looking like a great team long term.

November 8, 2021

Odd MVPs

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Does anyone find it a big odd that in both the National League and the American League, none of the finalists for Most Valuable Player came from a team that made the playoffs? Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, and Fernando Tatis Jr.make up the NL finalists, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Shohei Ohtani, and Marcus Semien made the AL top three. I think it’s good that sport writers are looking past playing for a playoff team, but it is impressive that the ten teams that did get to the post-season didn’t have someone worthy of the award. Trea Turner of the Nationals and Dodgers led the majors in fWAR for batters. Corbin Burnes of the Brewers had an even higher fWAR than Turner. Maybe in today’s game a team that’s well balanced with solid players is the way to win, rather than depending on a star or two.

September 24, 2021

Best Batter Today

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Juan Soto of the Nationals continued his hot hitting Thursday night to widen his lead atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Soto goes three for three with two home runs for a game score of 84, the highest of the day. He also drew a walk as Washington beats the Reds 3-2, pushing Cincinnati 5 1/2 games back in the wild card race. Bryce Harper of the Phillies holds second place as he draws three walks in a 12-6 win over the Pirates. Pittsburgh was up 6-0 after the top of the third, but allowed five runs in the bottom of the inning, and the Phillies kept pouring it on. With the Braves losing, the Phillies are now two games out of first place in the NL East.

Soto, Trea Turner, and Harper stand 1-2-3 in the NL batting average race. Imagine if they were still on the same team!

Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals hit a single and two home runs to lead the Cardinals to their twelfth straight win. He remains in third place. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays goes one for five in a 7-2 loss to the Twins for fourth place. Matt Olson of the Athletics homered and drew two walks in a 6-5 Mariners win for fifth place. The Mariners sweep the series and sit two games back of the Yankees for the second wild card.

September 23, 2021

Best Batter Today

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Juan Soto of the Nationals remains atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. His three for three game with a double, home run, and two walks earned him a game score of 82, and extends his lead to 14 points. The Nationals defeated the Marlins 7-5, despite the best efforts of the Washington bullpen to blow the game in the ninth inning.

Bryce Harper of the Phillies went one for two with two walks to hold second place, as Philadelphia down the Orioles 4-3. The Phillies remain three games behind the Braves in the NL East. They are also 4 1/2 games behind St. Louis for the second wild card. Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals posted a three for four night with a double and a home run to stay in third place in a 10-2 win over the Brewers, denying Milwaukee a division clinch in the four game series that finishes up Thursday afternoon. Another Cardinal, Tyler O’Neill, goes two for five with a double and a home run to claim the fifth slot.

Sitting fourth is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays. His two for three with a double on Wednesday wasn’t enough as the Rays win 7-1 and clinch a playoff spot.

The best game score of the day goes to Kyle Schwarber of the Red Sox. His three for four with a walk, double, and two home runs helped pummel the Mets 12-5, and earned him an 86 on the day. That was his sixth multi-HR game this season, tying him with Joey Gallo and Salvador Perez for most in the majors.