The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) announces the winners of the Most Valuable Player Award this evening. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays, Shohei Ohtani of the Angels,, and Marcus Semien of the Blue Jays top the list in the American League. Bryce Harper of the Phillies, Juan Soto of the Nationals, and Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres represent the finalists in the National League. None came from a playoff team.

I find the exclusion of Zack Wheeler from the NL list fascinating. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference show Wheeler with a higher WAR than any batter. He also led the league in innings pitched with 213 1/3. I suspect writers don’t see 213 1/3 innings as a very high total to lead the league, and they’re right. Teams to a great extent have devalued starting pitching, and the writers have followed suit.

The winner in the NL comes down to Haper or Soto, as Tatis’s injuries cut down his playing time compared to the other two. Soto hit .295/.420/.510 before the Nationals fire sale, .342/.528/.574 after. It strikes me that when Soto was the only hitter who could do damage, teams did not pitch as carefully to him. If there was a situation where he might do real damage, they just walked him. Meanwhile, there is a huge split between how FanGraphs and Baseball Reference value Harper. FanGraphs has him second to another former National, Trea Turner, while BR has him ninth in WAR among position players. Given that Harper won the Hank Aaron Award, I suspect Bryce will win in a close vote.

Ohtani is the favorite in the American League. His ability to pitch well and hit well represents tremendous value, as he actually saves a roster spot for his team. Baseball Reference has him posting 4.9 WAR on the batting side, and 4.1 WAR on the pitching side. Either of those seasons would be great alone, but together they are a sure winner. I think this will be a landslide.

I also have to ask, how can Toronto have three players in consideration for the two major awards, good talent around them, and not make the playoffs? They are looking like a great team long term.