July 28, 2021

Best Batter Today

Leave a reply

Juan Soto of the Nationals sits atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Soto singled and homered in a 6-4 over the Phillies in a game that saw former Nationals star Bryce Harper hit an inside-the-park home run, and current Nationals star Trea Turner leave due to a positive COVID-19 test. Matt Olson of the Athletics takes second place with a sacrifice fly in four trips in a 7-4 Padres win. In that same game, Manny Machado of the Padres goes two for four with a home run to claim third place, and his teammate Fernando Tatis Jr.doubles, homers, and walks to move back into the top five in fifth place. Rain stopped Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays from playing, and he sits in fifth place.

Harrison Bader of the Cardinals collected three hits, two doubles and a home run for the best game score of the night, a 75. That helped St. Louis to a 4-2 over the Guarindians. Bader only place about 40% of the season. The Cardinals could have used his .548 slugging percentage for the whole year.

July 28, 2021

July 27, 2021

Odd Trade

Leave a reply

The Mariners and Astros make a trade, and at least one Mariners fan is not too happy. Seattle, now in contention for a wild card slot, traded away their closer, Kendall Graveman to the division leader:

What’s the idea here? I mean, I get it, at some level: the M’s are selling high from a position of depth – that’s just what I talked about in yesterday’s post on Jerry’s trade history. I think this cannot be the final deal before the deadline, as, on its own, this simply hurts the team. I know they were never going to mortgage the future to improve 2021, but I also don’t think it’ll fly with either the fanbase or the clubhouse to start stripping 2021 for parts in the middle of a wild card run. I can imagine there are some frustrated players pulling on M’s jerseys tonight.

USSMariner.com

The Mariners in return get a third base prospect in Abraham Toro and old relief pitcher Joe Smith. Maybe they have another deal to flip one of that pair to another team. I do find it odd for a team to make another club they are chasing better.

July 27, 2021

Strasburg Under the Knife

Leave a reply

Stephen Strasburg needs surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. He will miss the rest of the 2021 season:

Injuries have limited Strasburg to seven starts since he was named MVP of Washington’s World Series win over Houston two years ago. He last pitched on June 1.

ESPN.com

He should be ready for spring 2022, but this is another reason for the Nationals to be sellers at the trade deadline.

July 27, 2021

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Marlins send Sandy Alcantara against the Orioles and Spenser Watkins. Alcantara now owns a 3.57 career ERA, but a poor team behind him resulted in a 16-28 record. His strength is limiting hits despite a low strikeout rate for this era. The rookie Watkins makes his fifth appearance and fourth start. So far he’s been wild, with eight walks in 16 1/3 innings, but opponents are 0 for 5 with runners in scoring position, leading to a 1.65 ERA.

The Dodgers get another crack at the Giants as Julio Urias faces Logan Webb. Urias walks one batter for every five he strikes out, so the 17 home runs he allowed led to limited damage. Webb owns a 1.64 ERA at home this season thanks to just 15 hits allowed in twenty two innings.

Houston visits Seattle, with the Mariners making a bid for the second wild card slot, just one game behind the Athletics. Lance McCullers Jr.battles Chris Flexen. McCullers appeared to be helped by the deadened ball, with just six home runs allowed in 91 2/3 innings. Flexen’s low K rate leads to a high number of hits allowed, but he balances that with just twenty two walks in 104 2/3 innings.

Enjoy!

July 27, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Both Gurriel brothers make the cut with identical projected hit averages. Both have a low OBP for their high batting averages, making them good candidates for getting a hit.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.331, 0.753 — Tim Anderson batting against Brad Keller.
  • 0.330, 0.747 — Michael Brantley batting against Chris Flexen.
  • 0.314, 0.738 — Trea Turner batting against Matt Moore.
  • 0.320, 0.731 — Bo Bichette batting against Garrett Richards.
  • 0.313, 0.716 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting against Garrett Richards.
  • 0.308, 0.708 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Garrett Richards.
  • 0.310, 0.707 — Bryan Reynolds batting against Brett Anderson.
  • 0.258, 0.698 — David Fletcher batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.254, 0.698 — Jose Iglesias batting against Austin Gomber.
  • 0.276, 0.697 — Jean Segura batting against Erick Fedde.

Anderson is just 4 for 22 with seven strikeouts against Keller. He and Brantley are the unanimous double down picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 27, 2021

Best Batter Today

Leave a reply

The top two slots flip in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Juan Soto of the Nationals goes 0 for 3 with two walks, and that drops him behind the idle Matt Olson of the Athletics. The Phillies beat the Nationals 6-5 on three runs in the bottom of the ninth inning Andrew McCutchen hitting the walk-off blast.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays posted a two for four night in a 5-4 Red Sox win to hold third place. Manny Machado of the Padres and Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates were both idle and hold fourth and fifth place respectively.

Kyle Farmer of the Reds triples, homers, and walks against the Cubs for the best game score of the day, a 72. Farmer, in his first full season of play is showing the best power of his career with a .383 slugging percentage. The Cubs take the game 6-5, as one run decides six of the nine games played in the majors.

July 27, 2021

July 26, 2021

Pirates Process

Leave a reply

One reason the Pirates traded Adam Frazier to the Padres was their knowledge of San Diego’s minor league system due to the Joe Musgrove deal. Ben Cherington shows his knowledge of Tucupita Marcano abilities, for example:

“He’s a skilled player, always been really young for his levels,” Cherington said. “He’s young this year for Triple-A, and he’s performed really well despite being a young player everywhere he’s been. He’s got a good feel to hit, a good decision-maker in the box, controls the strike zone, has always had a good ability to make contact, line-drive approach. He’s grown into a little bit more power this year.

“He’s a versatile defender. We see him with the ability to play shortstop, second, probably move around the entire infield and outfield, if needed. So that versatility is appealing. And then all the work we’ve done on him suggests that the character and work ethic and the aptitude is strong, also, so we feel good about that along with the other two guys that we’re getting.”

Post-Gazette.com

On top of that, the article implies that this was the best deal the Pirates could make. There were similar offers, but the experience scouting SD players won out.

July 26, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Anderson is two for nine career against Mike Minor with one walk and two strikeouts.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.310, 0.743 — Tim Anderson batting against Mike Minor.
  • 0.277, 0.722 — Trea Turner batting against Spencer Howard.
  • 0.279, 0.717 — Michael Brantley batting against Darren McCaughan.
  • 0.297, 0.712 — Salvador Perez batting against Dallas Keuchel.
  • 0.273, 0.711 — David Fletcher batting against German Marquez.
  • 0.291, 0.709 — Harold Castro batting against Michael Pineda.
  • 0.265, 0.705 — Jose Iglesias batting against German Marquez.
  • 0.271, 0.704 — Bo Bichette batting against Nick Pivetta.
  • 0.288, 0.704 — Hanser Alberto batting against Dallas Keuchel.
  • 0.309, 0.700 — J.D. Davis batting against Bryse Wilson.

The NN is in a slump, missing on five of the last six days. We’ll see if Anderson can fix things tonight. Perez is the consensus double down pick.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 26, 2021

Weekly Look at Offense

Leave a reply

The runs per game gap between 2021 and 2019 at the same point of the season increased this week to 0.7 runs. The 2021 season stands at 8.94 runs per game, while the 2019 season came in at 9.65 runs per game. While home runs continue to be down about 0.35 per game, other hits remain the big culprit, down a full hit per game. Strikeouts are only slightly higher at 17.65 per game versus 17.49 per game in 2019.

The reason for the increased difference seems to have come from pitchers adjusting to the new normal in tackiness on the baseball. Other hits had been running at about 14 per game for the previous three weeks, but dropped to 13.0 last week. Home runs did not drop, however, and the 2.73 HR per game last week was the highest of the season. Batters are launching again instead of collecting shorter hits.

You can follow the weekly scoring results here.

July 26, 2021

Best Batter Today

Leave a reply

Juan Soto of the Nationals once again tops the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He drew two walks Sunday in a 5-4 Orioles win as the Orioles get a series sweep. Matt Olson of the Athletics sits second after a single and a home run against the Mariners. That wasn’t enough as Seattle wins 4-3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.of the Blue Jays takes third place as he singles and walks in a 5-4 Mets win. Manny Machado of the Padres singles and homers, but the Marlins take the game 9-2. Bryan Reynolds of the Pirates singles twice against the Giants, but San Francisco takes the game 6-1.

With the Adam Frazier trade, the Pirates no longer have two hitters in the top 15. The Padres now have three hitters in the top 15.

Chris Taylor of the Dodgers posts the highest game score of the day, a 79. He collects three hits in four at bats, including two home runs as Los Angeles beats Colorado 3-2.

July 26, 2021

July 25, 2021

Down South Goes Frazier

Leave a reply

ESPN reports that the San Diego Padres will acquire Adam Frazier from the Pirates:

In exchange, the Pirates are acquiring right-hander Michell Miliano, shortstop Tucupita Marcano and outfielder Jack Suwinski, a source told ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.

Frazier entered Sunday hitting .327 — the second-best average in Major League Baseball — with four home runs and 32 RBIs.

ESPN.com

Miliano relieves and strikes out 17.7 batters per nine innings at two levels of A ball this season. His seasonal age is 21. Marcano has not done much in 50 PA at the MLB level. In the minors his slash line stands at .278/.359/.361, so he profiles as a lead-off hitter, or maybe a number nine hitter with the pitcher batting eighth. Suwinski plays 2021 as a twenty two year old, and owns a .269/.398/.551 line at AA, although his career minor league numbers are not that impressive. If Suwinski’s improvement in 2021 turns out to be real, this looks like a good deal for both teams. It’s a great deal for the Padres as they try to make the playoffs and go deep once they reach them.

July 25, 2021

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

It’s a gray day as Jon Gray of the Rockies takes on Josiah Gray of the Dodgers. (Sonny Gray pitches for the Reds today as well.) Jon Gray pitched well overall, but is 1-4 with a 4.54 ERA on the road. He allowed just two home runs in 35 2/3 innings away from Coors. Josiah Gray makes his second appearance and first start in the majors. He owned a 2.77 ERA in the minors with excellent three-true-outcome numbers.

The Sunday night game features Lance Lynn against Brandon Woodruff as the White Sox and Brewers battle. Lynn owns a 1.94 ERA thanks in part to allowing just 68 hits in 97 2/3 innings. Woodruff is close with a 2.04 ERA and 70 hits allowed in 119 innings.

Enjoy!

July 25, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Fletcher owns a high batting average with few walks, so he is a great choice to extend a streak. Castro is very similar. When players like this come out on top I get the feeling that the process works decently.

Here are the NN picks:

0.303, 0.727 — David Fletcher batting against Bailey Ober.
0.286, 0.724 — Michael Brantley batting against Taylor Hearn.
0.292, 0.718 — Jose Iglesias batting against Bailey Ober.
0.289, 0.717 — Luis Arraez batting against Jaime Barria.
0.300, 0.713 — Harold Castro batting against Daniel Lynch.
0.292, 0.712 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Domingo German.
0.260, 0.711 — Trea Turner batting against John Means.
0.284, 0.705 — Adam Frazier batting against Alex Wood.
0.293, 0.703 — Buster Posey batting against Jonathan Brubaker.
0.237, 0.701 — Tim Anderson batting against Brandon Woodruff.
0.291, 0.701 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Martin Perez.

The two systems agree on Fletcher at the top, but in general the NN sees a different group as doing well. Castro stands as the double down choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 25, 2021

Day at Wrigley

2 Replies

My college roommates and I resumed our annual trip to a ball game this weekend, taking in the Cubs game Saturday afternoon. The seats were good, in the 300 level near home plate.

Cubs Game 2021-07-24
Cubs game versus the Diamondbacks, July 24, 2021

The general upkeep of the stadium impressed me. The outside façade looked freshly painted and very clean. Inside the signage was clear, with plenty of room to move about. It’s an old stadium that clearly was maintained with love.

The highlight of the game came from the starting pitchers, each of whom doubled. It was the 199th time since the start of the 1920 season that both starting pitchers doubled in a game. For Merrill Kelly and Alec Mills, each double was also the first of their careers.

I thought the electronic score boards could be improved. Most stadiums have the line score always available. I did not see that at Wrigley. I did like the full lineups on display with the H-AB after the player, and the plays for the current inning.

We left in the bottom of the eighth due to a thunderstorm rolling in. It was a fun day at an historic park in a very vibrant city.

July 25, 2021

Best Batter Today

Leave a reply

The top twelve of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings remains tightly packed. Saturday provided more jockeying for position. Juan Soto of the Nationals remained in the top slot as he homered in a 5-3 Orioles victory. Matt Olson of the Athletics holds second place despite an 0 for 4 with two strikeouts in a 5-4 Mariners win.

Third place goes to Freddie Freeman of the Braves, two for four with a walk and a home run in a 15-3 rout of the Phillies. Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals takes fourth place as he goes two for five with a double in a 5-3 Reds win. Vladimir Guerrero of the Blue Jays returns to the top five with a two for five game, including a double. Toronto beats the Mets 10-3.

Ji-Man Choi of the Rays posts the highest game score of the day, an 82. He goes four for five with two doubles and a home run to help beat the Indians 8-2. Choi is slugging .531 in July.

July 25, 2021

July 24, 2021

July 24, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 Method picks:

Looks like a Rollin’ on a River day with Log5.


Here are the NN picks:

Both systems agree that Trea Turner should have a field day with Matt Harvey.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 24, 2021

Best Batter Today

Leave a reply

Two players move back into the top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings based on Friday’s games. Juan Soto of the Nationals remains on top after drawing a walk in a 6-1 Baltimore victory. Matt Olson of the Athletics ranks second after he hits a solo home run in four trips, the Mariners taking that game 4-3 to gain in the wild card race.

Justin Turner of the Dodgers move up into third place with a one for three with a home run and a walk, but that’s not enough to stop the Rockies from taking the game 9-6 in ten innings. Paul Goldschmidt of the Cardinals is just a hair behind in fourth place after a two for four with a home run and a walk in 6-5 Reds victory. Manny Machado of the Padres rounds out the top five with a double in four PA in a 5-2 win over the Marlins.

Robinson Chirinos of the Cubs posts the best game score of the day, a 79. The backup catcher went three for four with two home runs in the 8-3 win over the Diamondbacks. Chirinos now holds a .375/.500/1.000 slash line, as three of his six hits left the park.

July 24, 2021

July 23, 2021

Rays Trade Again

Leave a reply

The Rays send Rich Hill to the Mets:

Hill pitched well for the Rays, trading walks for fewer hits and striking out a decent number of batters. Those number should work better when he doesn’t need to face the DH. Hunter is an old reliever who hasn’t pitched much in he majors since 2018. Dyer is just 22, but has old man skills as most of his offense comes from walks and extra-base hits.

July 23, 2021

July 23, 2021

Games of the Day

Leave a reply

The Padres take on the Marlins with Joe Musgrove facing Zach Thompson. Musgrove allowed just 76 hits in 103 1/3 innings thanks in part to 119 K. The rookie Thompson is off to a great start to his career with a 1.93 ERA in his first six appearances. With only 28 innings in six starts, however, he’s not allowed to get into trouble.

The White Sox and Brewers play a possible World Series preview with Lucas Giolito battling Freddy Peralta. Giolitio seems to have adjusted to the lack to tack in his last two starts, including a complete game against the Astros. Peralta allowed just 44 hits in 98 innings, but he also walked 44.

Enjoy!

July 23, 2021

Beat the Streak Picks

Leave a reply

For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the Log5 picks:

I have included Castellanos as he is not yet on the disabled list, but he is expected to miss time with a wrist injury. Trea Turner gets a good match-up, as Lopez owns a .330 career opposition BABIP, and the measure is at .355 this season.

Here are the NN picks:

  • 0.347, 0.758 — Trea Turner batting against Jorge Lopez.
  • 0.342, 0.749 — David Fletcher batting against J.A. Happ.
  • 0.337, 0.741 — Nick Castellanos batting against Wade LeBlanc.
  • 0.330, 0.740 — Jose Iglesias batting against J.A. Happ.
  • 0.301, 0.735 — Michael Brantley batting against Kolby Allard.
  • 0.325, 0.725 — Cedric Mullins II batting against Patrick Corbin.
  • 0.322, 0.724 — Adam Frazier batting against Johnny Cueto.
  • 0.330, 0.719 — Justin Turner batting against Chi Chi Gonzalez.
  • 0.315, 0.713 — Raimel Tapia batting against David Price.
  • 0.301, 0.711 — Jean Segura batting against Max Fried.
  • 0.280, 0.711 — Luis Arraez batting against Alex Cobb.

The two systems agree on Trea Turner and David Fletcher as the double down picks.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

July 23, 2021

Best Batter Today

Leave a reply

There’s little change in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings this Friday morning as Juan Soto of the Nationals and Vladimir Guerrero of the Blue Jays both enjoyed a day off. They stand first and third respectively. Matt Olson of the Athletics drew a walk in a 4-1 win over the Mariners and remains in second place. Manny Machado of the Padres doubled in a 3-2 win over the Marlins four fourth place. Max Muncy of the Dodgers recorded a one for four night against in a game the Giants won 5-3. Kenley Jansen blew another save as get gave up four runs in the ninth inning.

The best game score of the day goes to Yandy Diaz of the Rays. He posts a four for five day, missing the cycle by a double as he triples and homers for a game score of 80. The Rays came back with two runs in the top of the ninth to tie the Indians, then Diaz singled to drive in the winning run in the tenth for a 5-4 final. The Rays did not gain on the Red Sox, however, as Boston won in similar fashion. They scored two runs in the ninth to tie the Yankees at three, then two in the tenth to win 5-4 as reliever Brooks Kriske throws four wild pitches.

July 23, 2021

July 22, 2021

Cruz to the Rays

Leave a reply

The Rays acquire Nelson Cruz from the Twins for two minor league pitchers:

The Twins received minor league pitchers Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman in exchange for Cruz and minor league pitcher Calvin Faucher.

ESPN.com

Cruz owns a career .272/.345/.536 slash line at Tropicana Field. Those are very close to his overall career averages. Rays designated hitters own a .219/.305/.389 slash line, so Cruz should be a huge improvement. Faucher looks like someone the Rays won’t be using soon.

On the Twins side, Ryan is hardly a prospect at seasonal age 25, but he owns a very high K rate and a low walk rate. He should be able to make the MLB team soon. Strotman is 24 with control problems, but a good minor league ERA nonetheless. He’s allowed just six home runs in 179 minor league innings.

It’s a good short-term trade for the Rays. Their probability of making the playoffs went up today.