For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
Here are the Log5 picks:
- 0.347 — Trea Turner batting against Jorge Lopez.
- 0.342 — David Fletcher batting against J.A. Happ.
- 0.337 — Nick Castellanos batting against Wade LeBlanc.
- 0.330 — Justin Turner batting against Chi Chi Gonzalez.
- 0.330 — Jose Iglesias batting against J.A. Happ.
- 0.325 — Cedric Mullins II batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.322 — Adam Frazier batting against Johnny Cueto.
- 0.321 — A.J. Pollock batting against Chi Chi Gonzalez.
- 0.315 — Raimel Tapia batting against David Price.
- 0.303 — Chris Taylor batting against Chi Chi Gonzalez.
I have included Castellanos as he is not yet on the disabled list, but he is expected to miss time with a wrist injury. Trea Turner gets a good match-up, as Lopez owns a .330 career opposition BABIP, and the measure is at .355 this season.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.347, 0.758 — Trea Turner batting against Jorge Lopez.
- 0.342, 0.749 — David Fletcher batting against J.A. Happ.
- 0.337, 0.741 — Nick Castellanos batting against Wade LeBlanc.
- 0.330, 0.740 — Jose Iglesias batting against J.A. Happ.
- 0.301, 0.735 — Michael Brantley batting against Kolby Allard.
- 0.325, 0.725 — Cedric Mullins II batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.322, 0.724 — Adam Frazier batting against Johnny Cueto.
- 0.330, 0.719 — Justin Turner batting against Chi Chi Gonzalez.
- 0.315, 0.713 — Raimel Tapia batting against David Price.
- 0.301, 0.711 — Jean Segura batting against Max Fried.
- 0.280, 0.711 — Luis Arraez batting against Alex Cobb.
The two systems agree on Trea Turner and David Fletcher as the double down picks.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!