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August 11, 2025
August 10, 2025
Verlander Rocked
The Nationals lit up Justin Verlander Sunday afternoon, collecting eleven hits and scoring five runs in five innings against the future Hall of Famer. That drops Verlander’s record to 1-9 with a 4.53 ERA. Note that the Nationals are a poor offensive team; they don’t get on base and they don’t hit for power.
Verlander had been pitching better lately, but no longer goes deep in games. I suspect he’ll finish the season, but I doubt any team will bring him back for 2026.
The Nationals beat the Giant 8-0.
August 10, 2025
Games of the Day
The Mets try to break a six-game losing streak as the Brewers go for a sweep in Milwaukee. Sean Manaea takes on Quinn Priester. Manaea pitched well in his 23 innings this season, keeping his walks low and his strikeouts high. Priester found his groove with the Brewers, 11-2 this season with a 3.15 ERA. He and his defense do a great job limiting hits, holding opponents to a .262 BABIP.
The Dodgers host the Blue Jays as Los Angeles goes for a sweep. Toronto scored one run in each of the first two games, coming off a Rocky Mountain High. Eric Lauer faces Tyler Glasnow. Lauer’s big improvement in ERA this season comes from lowering his walk and home run rates well below his career averages. He added a change up this season, after deemphasizing his slider last year. Glasnow comes into the game with a 3.06 ERA, but eight no decisions in ten starts as he averages just 4 2/3 innings per game.
Finally, the Rays send Adrian Houser against the Mariners and Bryan Woo. Houser owns a 2.54 ERA in twelve starts, giving up just four home runs in 74 1/3 innings. Woo is at 22 starts, the same number as all of 2024. He’s going deeper in games, with 18 2/3 more innings pitched.
Enjoy!
August 10, 2025
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.312, 0.700 — Ketel Marte batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.299, 0.686 — Lourdes Gurriel batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.295, 0.709 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Jose Urena.
- 0.295, 0.674 — Geraldo Perdomo batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.293, 0.703 — Trea Turner batting at Patrick Corbin.
- 0.289, 0.690 — Kerry Carpenter batting vs. Jack Kochanowicz.
- 0.288, 0.688 — Nick Kurtz batting at Cade Povich.
- 0.287, 0.661 — Alek Thomas batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.286, 0.683 — Maikel Garcia batting at Jose Urena.
- 0.286, 0.679 — Drake Baldwin batting vs. Cal Quantrill.
Marte’s ranking seems to be more about Gordon, who is a low walk, low strikeout pitcher. Marte walks quite a bit, especially this season, and that cuts down on his ability to collect hits.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.283, 0.720 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Brayan Bello.
- 0.284, 0.712 — Xavier Edwards batting at Joey Wentz.
- 0.295, 0.709 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Jose Urena.
- 0.293, 0.703 — Trea Turner batting at Patrick Corbin.
- 0.312, 0.700 — Ketel Marte batting vs. Tanner Gordon.
- 0.270, 0.699 — Miguel Andujar batting at Mike Burrows.
- 0.284, 0.693 — Aaron Judge batting vs. Jason Alexander.
- 0.287, 0.692 — Alec Bohm batting at Patrick Corbin.
- 0.289, 0.690 — Kerry Carpenter batting vs. Jack Kochanowicz.
- 0.288, 0.688 — Nick Kurtz batting at Cade Povich.
- 0.279, 0.688 — Nico Hoerner batting at Sonny Gray.
The two systems don’t agree on the top picks, but both agree on Witt as a high pick, and he tied with Marte as the consensus top choice. Arraez is hitting like his old self since the All-Star break with eleven multi-hit games in his last 21.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
August 10, 2025
Best Batter Today
Corey Seager of the Rangers retakes first place in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Seager went two for four with a home run to move 0.45 points ahead of Jose Ramirez of the Guardians. Ramirez posted an 0 for 4 in 3-1 win over the White Sox.
The Phillies beat the Rangers 3-2, with Kyle Schwarber on the winning side drawing a walk. He sits in third place. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays went 0 for 4 with a strikeout to drop to fifth place in a 9-1 Dodgers victory. That leaves the injured Jackson Chourio of the Brewers in fourth place, Milwaukee continuing their hot play with a 7-4 win over the Mets.
Shea Langeliers of the Athletics posted the best game score of the day, a 77. He went three for four with a walk, double, and home run in an 11-3 win over the Orioles. This is the second time this week Langeliers topped the game score leaderboard. He now ranks eighth, with his teammate Nick Kurtz tenth. Langeliers age 27 is what it should be, the best of his career.
August 10, 2025
Sunday Update
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
August 9, 2025
Alumni IL
Mariano Rivera tore his Achilles tendon during the Yankees Old-Timers game.
In his lone at-bat, Rivera singled off former teammate Andy Pettitte and easily ran to first base. During an at-bat by Willie Randolph, Rivera took a step and fell to the ground in shallow center field behind second base.
ESPN.com
I heard Roger Clemens talking about this on the radio broadcast. He’d like the name changed to the Alumni game, as he doesn’t feel like an old-timer.
August 9, 2025
Games of the Day
The Phillies and Rangers continue their series in Texas with Jesus Luzardo trying to resurrect his season against the excellent Jacob deGrom. Luzardo stands 10-5, but with a 4.32 ERA. His three true outcomes are all better than his career averages, but his ERA is slightly worse. Luzardo benefitted from pitching in high scoring games. The Phillies score 4.73 runs per game, but in Luzardo’s starts that goes up to 5.96 runs per game. deGrom owns a slightly better record at 10-4, thanks to a 2.80 ERA. He also is helped by his offense, scoring 5.32 runs per game when he starts compared to 4.09 runs per game overall.
The Red Sox and Padres offer another fine contest with Lucas Giolito taking on Michael King. Giolito walked just 27 batters in 95 2/3 innings. He’s been hot lately, with a 2.03 ERA in his last 10 starts. He is susceptible to the home run, so it will help pitching in San Diego. King holds batters to a paltry .262 OBP and an miniscule .327 slugging percentage.
Enjoy!
August 9, 2025
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.301, 0.689 — Ketel Marte batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.298, 0.693 — Ezequiel Tovar batting at Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.298, 0.685 — Hunter Goodman batting at Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.294, 0.707 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Bailey Ober.
- 0.292, 0.687 — Nick Kurtz batting at Brandon Young.
- 0.290, 0.676 — Lourdes Gurriel batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
- 0.289, 0.674 — Jordan Beck batting at Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.289, 0.700 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Chris Bassitt.
- 0.289, 0.675 — Mickey Moniak batting at Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.288, 0.671 — Warming Bernabel batting at Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.288, 0.696 — Ivan Herrera batting vs. Colin Rea.
It looks like a good day for the Rockies offense as they visit the Diamondbacks. In fact, seven of the eleven players on this list come from that game. While not on the level of Denver, Phoenix is also a high altitude park, and hits can be plentiful there. The rookie Bernabel makes the list with just 49 PA under his belt. He only walks 2% of the time so far and owns a relatively low K rate, giving him a .354/.367/.688 slash line. Nine of his 17 hits went for extra bases.
Note that the Marlins and Braves play a split admission doubleheader today, so be careful picking from those games.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.281, 0.717 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Lucas Giolito.
- 0.284, 0.708 — Xavier Edwards batting at Erick Fedde.
- 0.286, 0.708 — Miguel Andujar batting at Braxton Ashcraft.
- 0.294, 0.707 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting at Bailey Ober.
- 0.289, 0.700 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Chris Bassitt.
- 0.268, 0.700 — Xavier Edwards batting at Hurston Waldrep.
- 0.288, 0.696 — Ivan Herrera batting vs. Colin Rea.
- 0.298, 0.693 — Ezequiel Tovar batting at Eduardo Rodriguez.
- 0.284, 0.691 — Ronald Acuna Jr. batting vs. Ryan Gusto.
- 0.276, 0.689 — Nico Hoerner batting at Andre Pallante.
- 0.301, 0.689 — Ketel Marte batting vs. Bradley Blalock.
Note that this is a somewhat different list. Both pitchers in the Rockies-Diamondbacks game are hittable. The Log5 Method weighs the combatants evenly, while the NN greatly favors the batter’s ability. Arraez does have a history against Giolito, eight for 33 with three walks and four strikeouts. That works out to a .222 hit average versus the projected .281. You could also double down with Xavier Edwards.
On a low probability day, the consensus top pick goes to Witt, with Marte the double down pick. Witt stands 12 for 25 versus Ober with no walks and just two strikeouts.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
August 9, 2025
Best Batter Today
Jose Ramirez of the Guardians sits atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings after collecting a double and a walk in a 9-5 win over the White Sox. Seventeen of his last 33 hits went for extra bases.
Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies homered and walked in a 9-1 rout of the Rangers, his 41st home run of the season. His teammate, Brandon Marsh, posted the best game score of the day, a 79. Marsh went four for five with two doubles and a home run. Marsh’s strength is getting on base, and the game raised his OBP to .344. He is now slugging .433, making this a good year for him in terms of power. In that same game Corey Seager of the Rangers went two for five. He sits in fourth place.
Third place belongs to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays, just 0.4 points ahead of Seager. In a game that featured Max Scherzer against Clayton Kershaw, Guerrero doubled and walked in four trips to the plate. Both starters pitched well, but Kershaw a little better as the Dodgers took the game 5-1. With a Red Sox win over the Padres, Toronto’s lead in the AL East is down to three games, the same lead as the Dodgers over the Padres.
The injured Jackson Chourio of the Brewers slips to fifth place as Milwaukee downed the Mets 3-2.
August 9, 2025
Saturday Update
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
August 8, 2025
Prop Bet Ban
Ohio is looking into prohibiting the types of bets that led to the investigation of two Guardians pitchers:
The Ohio Casino Control Commission (OCCC), at the request of Gov. Mike DeWine, is reviewing the types of microbets currently offered by the state’s books on all sports, before drafting a rule to remove some player-specific props from the list of approved wagers, executive director Matt Schuler told ESPN on Friday.
ESPN.com
Good. It appears online gambling was a really bad idea, and these micro-bets make it worse. Betting requires lots of friction to keep certain people from losing everything, and one big piece of friction is making the bets in person.
August 8, 2025
How Much is Enough
The AL Cy Young Award is quite tight, with Tarik Skubal of the Tigers and Garrett Crochet of the Red Sox neck and neck. Here are the MLB leaders in ERA. You can see that Skubal leads by 0.06 runs in ERA, and he’s done slightly better in three true outcomes. Tom Tango Enhanced Cy Young Points, which take into account Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), puts Skubal slightly ahead of Crochet as well.
Lurking just behind them sits Nathan Eovaldi, who is about 0.80 runs better than either of the top two. After pitching a brilliant eight one-hit innings against the Yankees on August 5th, his ERA stands at 1.38, with extremely good three-true outcomes. At the moment, he is five inning short of qualifying for the ERA title.
If this keeps up, voters will need to make a calculation. Does a much better ERA make up for 30 fewer innings. The smaller the sample size, the easier it is to post a low ERA. Or will an historically low number push the vote his way. This one may go down to the wire.
Note that Cristopher Sanchez, who pitches for the Phillies Friday night, moved ahead of his teammate Zack Wheeler. That could prove to be a fun intramural competition to see if either of them can catch Paul Skenes.
August 8, 2025
Umpire First
Congratulations to Jen Pawol, who makes her major league debut as an umpire tonight. Jen will be the first woman to umpire a major league game.
“Umpiring is for me. It’s in my DNA,” Pawol tells MLB.com’s Elizabeth Muratore. “It’s been a long, hard journey to the top here. But I just love the camaraderie with my crew, with the fellow umpires. I love the travel. I love working out. There’s so many similarities being an athlete and an umpire, and I never have to leave the field when I’m umpiring. I’m just extremely focused on getting my calls right. And I’m so grateful to all those along the way who have helped me become a better umpire every day.”
SmithsonianMag.com
I wish her all the best, and hope she doesn’t need to deal with a Crash Davis this weekend.
August 8, 2025
Games of the Day
The Phillies travel to Texas to take on the Rangers. Cristopher Sanchez battles Merrill Kelly. Sanchez, at seasonal age 28, heads for the best season of his career. His 2.40 ERA comes from a combination of raising his strikeout rate and lowering his home run rate. Batters slug just .316 against him this season. Kelly makes his second start for the Rangers after issuing no walks in 5 2/3 innings in his first start, striking out six.
The tepid Mets take on the red hot Brewers, 31-9 since June 19th a .775 win percentage. In the same time, the Mets are 18-23. Kodai Senga faces Brandon Woodruff. Senga comes into the game with a 2.31 ERA in 89 2/3 innings. He walked 44 batters but allowed just 68 hits, only eight of them homers. Woodruff makes his sixth start of the season, and walked just four batters in 28 1/3 innings, but allowed five homers.
Finally, a battle of legends and first place teams in Los Angeles as Max Scherzer leads the Blue Jays against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. Both came up in 2008, and Scherzer stands first in Ks in that time, with Kershaw third. Scherzer owns one more win, Kershaw ten more shutouts. Kershaw’s ERA is also 0.66 runs lower.
Enjoy!
August 8, 2025
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.315, 0.738 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Walker Buehler.
- 0.311, 0.723 — Xavier Edwards batting at Bryce Elder.
- 0.309, 0.697 — Ketel Marte batting vs. Austin Gomber.
- 0.297, 0.683 — Lourdes Gurriel batting vs. Austin Gomber.
- 0.297, 0.702 — Manny Machado batting vs. Walker Buehler.
- 0.292, 0.669 — Geraldo Perdomo batting vs. Austin Gomber.
- 0.290, 0.663 — Alek Thomas batting vs. Austin Gomber.
- 0.289, 0.702 — Jeremy Pena batting at Cameron Schlittler.
- 0.288, 0.710 — Miguel Andujar batting at Mitch Keller.
- 0.287, 0.684 — Ramon Laureano batting vs. Walker Buehler.
Arraez hit better at home this season, .306 vs. .277.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.315, 0.738 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Walker Buehler.
- 0.311, 0.723 — Xavier Edwards batting at Bryce Elder.
- 0.288, 0.710 — Miguel Andujar batting at Mitch Keller.
- 0.286, 0.702 — Bo Bichette batting at Clayton Kershaw.
- 0.289, 0.702 — Jeremy Pena batting at Cameron Schlittler.
- 0.297, 0.702 — Manny Machado batting vs. Walker Buehler.
- 0.309, 0.697 — Ketel Marte batting vs. Austin Gomber.
- 0.285, 0.693 — Nico Hoerner batting at Michael McGreevy.
- 0.277, 0.693 — Ernie Clement batting at Clayton Kershaw.
- 0.279, 0.686 — Kerry Carpenter batting vs. Kyle Hendricks.
Both systems agree today on Arraez and Edwards as the double down choice.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
August 7, 2025
Best Batter Friday
The top five of the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings remain the same, as none of the players saw action on Thursday. In the four games played, Drake Baldwin of the Braves posted the highest game score, a 79. He went three for five with two home runs in an 8-6 comeback win against the Marlins. The rookie catcher is having a great season with a .287/.356/.484 slash line. He should do well in the Rookie of the Year voting, and could be a solid offensive catcher long term for the Braves.
August 7, 2025
Friday Update
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
August 7, 2025
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.319, 0.727 — Xavier Edwards batting at Carlos Carrasco.
- 0.294, 0.684 — Kyle Stowers batting at Carlos Carrasco.
- 0.291, 0.677 — Heriberto Hernandez batting at Carlos Carrasco.
- 0.285, 0.684 — Nick Kurtz batting at Mitchell Parker.
- 0.273, 0.674 — Brent Rooker batting at Mitchell Parker.
- 0.271, 0.652 — Jakob Marsee batting at Carlos Carrasco.
- 0.270, 0.657 — Otto Lopez batting at Carlos Carrasco.
- 0.269, 0.652 — Dane Myers batting at Carlos Carrasco.
- 0.269, 0.650 — Agustin Ramirez batting at Carlos Carrasco.
- 0.265, 0.645 — Javier Sanoja batting at Carlos Carrasco.
It looks like a good day for the Fish, as Carrasco allowed a good number of hits over the last three seasons. Edwards and Stowers tend to bat 1-2, and they are on the road, so that should give them the chance of getting an extra PA.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.319, 0.727 — Xavier Edwards batting at Carlos Carrasco.
- 0.285, 0.684 — Nick Kurtz batting at Mitchell Parker.
- 0.294, 0.684 — Kyle Stowers batting at Carlos Carrasco.
- 0.291, 0.677 — Heriberto Hernandez batting at Carlos Carrasco.
- 0.273, 0.674 — Brent Rooker batting at Mitchell Parker.
- 0.224, 0.670 — Miguel Andujar batting at Paul Skenes.
- 0.257, 0.668 — Nick Gonzales batting vs. Brady Singer.
- 0.254, 0.663 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting vs. Brady Singer.
- 0.270, 0.657 — Otto Lopez batting at Carlos Carrasco.
- 0.236, 0.654 — Luis Garcia Jr. batting vs. Jacob Lopez.
Four games grace the schedule today, so the probabilities are low with the exception of Edwards. Note the disconnect between the projected hit average of Andujar versus Skenes and the probability of Andujar collecting a hit in the game. The latter reflects that probability that Andujar will see other pitchers in the game.
Stowers is the consensus double down pick, although it doesn’t seem like a good day to double down.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
August 7, 2025
Best Batter Today
Jose Ramirez of the Guardians once again sits atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. He singled in a 4-1 win over the Mets, the Guardians completing a sweep that puts them six games behind the first place Tigers in the AL Central.
Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies missed a lot of pitches on Wednesday, going 0 for 4 with three strikeouts as the Orioles take the game 5-1. Schwarber remains in second place, and the Phillies retain their 2 1/2 game lead over the Mets in the NL East.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays moved up to third place as he posted a four for seven game in a 20-1 thrashing of the Rockies. Guerrero included a double and a home run among his hits. His teammate, Ty France, went four for four with two hit by pitches for a game score of 83, the highest on the day. The top three game scores of the day all came off the bats of Blue Jays hitters.
The injured Jackson Chourio of the Brewers dropped to fourth place as his team beat the Braves 5-4.
Corey Seager of the Rangers rounds out the top five after a two for three with two walks in a 3-2 Yankees win.
August 7, 2025
Thursday Update
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
August 6, 2025
Rockin’ the Rockies
The Blue Jays blasted the Rockies 20-1 on Wednesday afternoon. Kyle Freeland started for Colorado, faced 25 batters, allowed seven hits, two walks, one home run, and hit Ty France twice. France wound up with four hits, three of them doubles, it the game. Ernie and Vladimir Guerrero Jr also collected four hits, as the team out hit Colorado 24-3. Catcher Austin Nola pitched the last inning for Colorado, giving up eight hits and eight earned runs. This was a very embarrassing game for the Rockies in an embarrassing season.
August 6, 2025
Gavinized
Gavin Williams gave the Cleveland bullpen most of the day off as he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning, losing it on a one-out Juan Soto home run. The Guardians won the game 4-1. He actually stayed in for two more batters, getting Pete Alonso to fly out, then walking Brandon Nimmo. Williams walked four and struck out six in the game, throwing 126 pitches.
Williams is seasonal age 25, so he’s not a youngster. So the Guardians likely felt he could take a higher pitch count. An impressive outing that lowered his ERA to 3.17.
August 6, 2025
Friends, Romans, Red Sox Fans…
Jeff Passan is reporting a nice contract extension for Roman Anthony of the Red Sox:
Stay tuned for official word.
August 6, 2025
Quick Games of the Day
Trevor Rogers of the Orioles with a 1.44 ERA in 56 1/3 innings tries to stop the Phillies and Ranger Suarez.
The Guardians attempt to move closer to a playoff spot in the AL as they face the Mets, in a hot NL East race. Gavin Williams takes on David Peterson.
Andrew Abbott of the Reds squares off against Cade Horton and the Cubs in an important NL Central battle.
Enjoy!
August 6, 2025
Best Batter Today
On a very good night for the Athletics, Nick Kurtz moves into the fifth slot in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Kurtz went three four four with two walks and a double in the 16-7 win over the Nationals. That puts him at .311/.389/.655 for the season, his first in the majors. His game score of 71, however was only the fourth best on the team in that game. Brent Rooker posted a 72, JJ Bleday came in at 79, and Shea Langeliers topped all of MLB with a 99. He went five for six with a double and three home runs, giving him the 19th game score of at least 90 this season. That gives the Athletics two of the four highest game scores on the season, Kurtz setting a record was a 118 on July 25th.
Jose Ramirez of the Guardians remained on top despite an 0 for 4 in a 3-2 win over the Mets. The Guardians are now seven games out of first place in the AL Central and 1 1/2 games out of the third wild card slot. Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies gained on Ramirez with a single and a walk in a 5-0 win over the Orioles.
The injured Jackson Chourio of the Brewers stubbornly remains in third place. Milwaukee continued their winning ways with a 7-2 win over the former Milwaukee Braves.
Manny Machado of the Padres rounds out the top five in fourth place as he went 3 for 5 with a walk and a double in a 10-5 win over the Diamondbacks.
August 6, 2025
Beat the Streak Picks
For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.343, 0.743 — Bo Bichette batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.330, 0.729 — Ernie Clement batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.329, 0.720 — Alejandro Kirk batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.321, 0.706 — Joey Loperfido batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.321, 0.721 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.313, 0.720 — Jeremy Pena batting at Janson Junk.
- 0.311, 0.695 — Tyler Heineman batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.296, 0.677 — Addison Barger batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.292, 0.702 — Jose Altuve batting at Janson Junk.
- 0.289, 0.670 — Myles Straw batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.289, 0.699 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Matthew Liberatore.
The Blue Jays get to take on the hittable Freeland. Note that Freeland pitched a bit better recently, allowing 25 hits in 26 2/3 innings since the start of July.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.343, 0.743 — Bo Bichette batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.330, 0.729 — Ernie Clement batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.287, 0.726 — Luis Arraez batting at Anthony DeSclafani.
- 0.321, 0.721 — Vladimir Guerrero Jr. batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.313, 0.720 — Jeremy Pena batting at Janson Junk.
- 0.329, 0.720 — Alejandro Kirk batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.285, 0.707 — Miguel Andujar batting at Cade Horton.
- 0.321, 0.706 — Joey Loperfido batting at Kyle Freeland.
- 0.292, 0.702 — Jose Altuve batting at Janson Junk.
- 0.289, 0.699 — Freddie Freeman batting vs. Matthew Liberatore.
Bichette and Clement get unanimous nod from the two systems.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
August 6, 2025
Wednesday Update
The Day by Day Database is up to date.
August 5, 2025
The Strikeout Pitch
It’s the change of speed from fast to slow that tends to get batters striking out:
I like to think about this in terms of pattern recognition errors. The pitchers train the batter’s recognizer on a fastball, then disrupt the recognizer with the changeup.
August 5, 2025
How the Other Half Lives
The Athletics came into the game with Washington having allowed at least 10 runs 20 times this season. That’s tied with the Rockies for the most time allowing at least 10 runs. The A’s turned the tables, however, beating the Nationals 16-7. It was the 15th time this year the Nationals allowed at least ten runs, third in the majors.
The top four batters in the Athletics order went 16 for 22 with two walks, four doubles, and four home runs. Shea Langeliers, batting leadoff for the first time, hit three of the home runs.
It was quite the night for the catcher.