Tag Archives: Kansas City Royals

September 8, 2014

Massive Tie Scenarios

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Despite the Cardinals beating the Brewers on Sunday, the five way tie possibility in the NL remains at 91 wins:

Cardinals 12-7
Giants 13-6
Pirates 17-3
Brewers 17-2
Braves 17-2

In this scenario, the Pirates split with the Braves, take 2 of three from the Brewers, and Milwaukee sweeps their three remaining games from the Cardinals. I’m starting to like the three-way tie for the second wild card better.

In the AL, the six-way tie scenario drops to 91 wins due to the Yankees loss to the Royals:

Royals 12-9
Mariners 13-7
Tigers 13-6
Indians 17-4
Yankees 18-3
Blue Jays 18-2

New York and Toronto play four times, so their combined losses have to total to at least four.

The four-way AL tie did well on Sunday. That tie can happen at 95 wins:

Athletics 15-5
Royals 16-5
Mariners 17-3
Tigers 17-2

Just 2 1/2 games separate the four teams. With three weeks to go, the possibilities are endless.

The best results for Monday:

  • Cleveland beats Lanaheim
  • Detroit bests Kansas City
  • Atlanta defeats Washington
  • Pittsburgh wins over Philadelphia
  • Toronto sends the Chicago Cubs to a loss
  • St. Louis falls to Cincinnati
  • Oakland loses to the Chicago White Sox
  • Milwaukee defeats Miami
  • Seattle and Houston can do either way, slightly favoring Seattle losing
September 7, 2014

Pathetic Offense

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The Yankees pitchers allow five runs in the three game series against the Royals, three of them unearned, yet New York loses two out of three as Kansas City wins on Sunday 2-0. With a little offense, the Yankees could have easily swept this series. The offense looked old, however, as they were not able to catch up to the power pitching of Kansas City. In the five way race for the second wild card, the Yankees are now in fourth place, as Cleveland wins. The Mariners lost, so New York did not lose ground to the front runner. It’s tough to see them doing well against any kind of power pitching even if they do make the playoffs.

On the flip side, while the Royals pitching looks tough, their offense isn’t much better than the Yankees. It’s tough to believe that either team could go deep in the playoffs with their lack of hitting.

September 7, 2014 September 6, 2014 September 6, 2014

Massive Tie Scenarios

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The NL race between three NL Central contenders and the two wild card slots tightened up a bit on Friday night as the Brewers beat the Cardinals and the Giants won, moving the Giants and Cardinals into a tie. The Braves lost, but did not lose ground, and the Pirates are in limbo with a suspended game to be completed today. The five-way tie still works with a high of 92 wins:

Cardinals 15-6
Giants 15-6
Brewers 18-3
Braves 19-2
Pirates 21-2

The above scenario has the Pirates splitting the four games with the Braves and sweeping three from Milwaukee, while the Brewers win all five games left with St. Louis. This scenario is more likely to happen at around 88 wins, and my bet is one of the top teams on this list finishes better than that. We could get a three-way tie for the second wild card among Milwaukee, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh, and that would be quite a lot of fun.

The six way AL tie between the AL Central contenders and the second wild card contenders took a hit as the Yankees lost a 1-0 game to Kansas City and the Blue Jays blew two late leads to fall to the Red Sox 9-8 in ten innings. Seattle now controls the second wild card slot as they beat the Wasingtonless Rangers 7-5. There was some wiggle room at 92 wins, so that remains in place with the following results:

Royals 14-9
Mariners 15-7
Tigers 15-6
Yankees 20-3
Indians 20-3
Blue Jays 20-2

This happens if Cleveland sweeps their remaining games from the Tigers and Royals. The Blue Jays could sweep from games from the Mariners and split four games with the Yankees. The Yankees could win their final two against the Royals. The Royals and Tigers would then split their six games.

I’ll note that Oakland lost Friday night, and their lead for the top wild card slot is down to two. So there is another massive tie developing in the AL between Oakland, Kansas City, Seattle, and Detroit. Those four could tie at 96 wins. That would prompt a one-game playoff for the AL Central, the loser going into the wild card pool. A two-game playoff occurs for the two wild card slots. So this type of tie delays the AL playoffs for at least two days (given that a game occurs on the off-day). It can happen at 96 wins:

Athletics 17-5
Royals 18-5
Mariners 19-3
Tigers 19-2

The Tigers would win four of six from the Royals, and the Mariners could sweep three from Oakland. There plenty of wiggle room here, and this may be the most likely scenario around right now. And it’s a very disruptive one!

For the NL, the best results for Saturday would be:

  • Pittsburgh takes two from the Chicago Cubs
  • The Giants fall to Detroit
  • Milwaukee makes it two in a row against the Cardinals
  • Atlanta beats Miami

For the six-way tie in the AL, the best results would be:

  • The New York Yankees defeat Kansas City
  • Detroit and San Francisco can go either way
  • Cleveland beats the Chicago White Sox
  • Toronto wins over Boston
  • Seattle loses to Texas

For the four-way tie in the AL, the best results would be:

  • Kansas City against the New York Yankees can go either way
  • Oakland loses to Houston
  • Detroit beats San Francisco
  • Seattle beats Texas
September 5, 2014

Massive Tie Scenarios

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The Cardinals keep winning, making the chances for a massive tie in the NL more remote. They defeated the Brewers 3-2 Thursday night in the only game of importance in the National League. The tie still works at 92 wins, however.:

Cardinals 15-7
Giants 16-6
Brewers 19-3
Braves 19-3
Pirates 21-2

The above scenario has the Pirates splitting the four games with the Braves and sweeping three from Milwaukee, while the Brewers win all six games left with St. Louis. This scenario is more likely to happen at around 88 wins, and my bet is one of the top teams on this list finishes better than that. We could get a three-way tie for the second wild card among Milwaukee, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh, and that would be quite a lot of fun.

The American League did better Thursday night, as the Yankees hit two solo home runs in the ninth inning to walk off with a win against the Red Sox, but Cleveland lost to Detroit in extra innings. That actually brings Toronto into the mix, and they have four games against Seattle and four games against the Yankees. They can get a six-way tie among the AL Central and second wild card contenders at 92 wins if they finish like this:

Royals 15-9
Tigers 15-7
Mariners 16-7
Yankees 20-4
Toronto 20-3
Indians 21-3

According to my math (it would help if someone would check), Cleveland could now sweep their remaining games from the Tigers and Royals. The Blue Jays could sweep from games from the Mariners and split four games with the Yankees. The Yankees could sweep the Royals. The Royals would then take four of the six games left with the Tigers. I even believe there is wiggle room here.

For today, the best results would be:

  • Pittsburgh defeats the Chicago Cubs
  • New York defeats Kansas City
  • Cleveland wins over the Chicago White Sox
  • Detroit against San Francisco can go either way.
  • Toronto wins against Boston
  • Atlanta beats Miami
  • Seattle and Texas can go either way.
  • Milwaukee defeats St. Louis
September 4, 2014

Massive Tie Scenarios

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Pittsburgh losing to St. Louis Wednesday night hurt the NL Massive Tie scenario involving the championship of the NL Central and both wild card slots. The most wins for this scenario drops to 92 and could happen if teams finish with these records:

Cardinals 16-7
Giants 16-6
Brewers 19-4
Braves 19-3
Pirates 21-2

The Pirates are now done with the Cardinals. The Brewers and Cardinals, however, have seven games left, and the Pirates have three with Milwaukee and four with Atlanta. The above scenario has the Pirates splitting the four games with the Braves and sweeping Milwaukee, while the Brewers win at least six from St. Louis. This scenario is more likely to happen at around 88 wins, and my bet is one of the top teams on this list finishes better than that. We could get a three-way tie for the second wild card among Milwaukee, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh, and that would be quite a lot of fun.

The American League did better Wednesday night, with both the Yankees and Indians winning. They can get a five-way tie among the AL Central and second wild card contenders at 93 wins if they finish like this:

Royals 16-8
Tigers 17-6
Mariners 18-6
Yankees 22-3
Indians 22-3

The Indians would split the four games left with the Tigers, then take four games from the Royals (they almost have one of those won, a suspended game). That would allow the Royals and Tigers to split their six games, and the Royals could sweep the Yankees. The Mariners are free and clear of head-to-head competition with this group, so they just need to keep pace. There is also a little wiggle room here. The six games between the Royals and Tigers make this scenario impossible at 94 wins.

For today, the best results would be:

  • Cleveland defeats Detroit
  • New York beats Boston
  • Seattle wins against Texas
  • Milwaukee triumphs over St. Louis
September 1, 2014 August 19, 2014

Is the Bullpen the Answer?

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Dave Fleming, at Bill James Online (subscription required) tries to answer why the Royals are ahead of the Tigers:

This is what Jerry’s e-mail got me wondering: have the Kansas City Royals, a franchise whose macro (trading Wil Myers) and micro (their batting orders) decision have seemed not only random and senseless, but deliberately antagonist to anyone whose understanding of the game is even casually inclined towards sabermetrics….has that team somehow lucked into some secret formula for winning. And it that formula something as obvious as: “just have a really good bullpen”?

The Tigers and the Royals and the 2014 AL Central race is compelling, to me, because it seems an interesting test of that possibility. The Tigers have a much better offense, and they have slightly better starting pitching…and they have a much worse bullpen. Is that enough to keep these teams even? Is a one-run difference in bullpen ERA as significant as a half-run difference in runs scored per game? Is that one-run difference in bullpen ERA more significant?

I don’t know. But if I wanted to figure out why the Royals are ahead of the Detroit Tigers in the American League Central race, that’s where I’d be looking.

As I commented ten days ago, it strikes me that the KC bullpen is good because the manager conserves his relievers by allowing his starters to go deep in games. This may not be the type of bullpen that could come in the seventh inning every game and put out the lights.

Update: Via BBTF, the Royals might have also taken a page out of the 2002 Angels playbook:

When it comes to putting the ball in play, the Royals are, relative to the league, one of the most prolific teams in baseball history. Because while they’re last in the majors in walks, they’re also last in strikeouts: They’ve struck out more than 100 fewer times than every other team in baseball. Their three true outcomes percentage4 is just 23.6 percent; the major league average is 30.6 percent.

If you remember the 2002 playoff series between the Angels and the Yankees, Anaheim kept putting the ball in play, and the grounders kept going by Derek Jeter. (It was that series that started me on the probabilistic model of range work.) Those Yankees teams used a high K rate by their pitchers to cover up the weakness of their fielders. Take away the Ks, and the defense killed the team. If the Royals go up against a team with poor range, like the Tigers or the Yankees, those few extra hits might make all the difference.

August 14, 2014

America Discovers Columbus

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Christian Colon helped keep the Royals hot with a 3 for 4 day with a double and run scored as Oakland falls 7-3. In 11 games, Colon is now 10 for 26, .385 with four doubles and a triple. He’s 25 years old, so he’s not a prospect, but sometimes a player who hits the majors in his prime is mature enough to contribute right away. So far, his voyage is going well.

August 13, 2014

Winning Lee

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The Royals getting hot appears to coincide with a visit with their biggest fan from South Korea:

How do I begin this story? How can I convince you that the greatest story for Royals fans in 29 years is unfolding before our eyes, and its protagonist lives a hemisphere away, speaks imperfect (but diligent) English and had never set foot in Kauffman Stadium until last Thursday?

I first became aware of Lee Sung-woo eight or nine years ago. I didn’t know his name; I just knew there was someone with the handle KoreanFan who posted on a site named Royals Corner. He wrote as if English was his second language, and he was eternally optimistic at a time when 70-victory seasons were something the Royals could only aspire to. I thought it was impressive that someone from South Korea followed the Royals, but didn’t think too much more of it.

…

This summer, Lee, 38, finally took the plunge. Taking advantage of a change to a new job as a merchandise manager, he took 10 days to visit Kansas City, watch the Royals play and maybe do a little sightseeing and eat some barbecue.

He emailed Kamler and another Royals fan, Dave Darby, about his plans; they told him they would pick him up and drive him to the ballpark and show him around town.

If the story had ended there, it would have been enough: three people who have never met, and can barely communicate with one another, bonding like long-lost friends over a shared interest in a long-frustrated baseball team. Movies have been made with flimsier plots.

But Kamler decided to publicize the fact that Lee was finally coming to Kansas City. He had no idea what he was getting himself into. None of us did.

The Royals embraced their far off fan, and pushed into first place at the same time. If Kansas City wins the World Series, there will no doubt be a movie about this.

August 11, 2014

The First Place Royals

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Kansas City beat Oakland 3-2 Monday night, Alcides Escobar singling home the winning run with two out in the seventh, his second RBI of the evening. The bullpen was outstanding once again, allowing one walk and one hit in three innings while recording four K. Greg Holland did make it interesting in the ninth, as he allowed both the hit and walk, but recorded his 35th save.

Meanwhile, the Tigers fall to the Pirates 11-6 as Justin Verlander and a series of ineffective relievers could not keep a team with Andrew McCutchen on the disabled list off the board. As Verlander left with shoulder soreness after just one inning, the tired bullpen had to pitch seven innings in relief.

The Royals eight game winning streak puts them 1/2 game ahead of the Tigers, in first place in the AL Central. The Tigers are in lead for the second wild card slot, but now have to deal with the a whole other group of teams trying to chase them down.

August 9, 2014

Bullpen Conservation

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In looking at team game scores, I noticed an unusual use of the staff by the Royals. The relievers have an ERA half a run better than the starters. Often when that occurs, bullpens get over worked. The game scores indicate that the Royals starters are going fairly deep into games. The upshot is the Royals starters have pitched nearly 70% of the team innings. This helps keep the back of the bullpen out of games and the elite relievers fresh. That was important last night when the bullpen had to pitch four innings for the win.

August 3, 2014

Big Games James

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James Shields owns a no-hitter through five innings against the Athletics. The Royals scored four runs in the top of the fifth to give Shields a nice cushion to go after batters. Shields has struck out just one, but appears to be getting a high number of easy fly balls, and have caught two pop ups himself.

Update: Josh Reddick homers leading off the sixth to break up the no-no and the shutout.

July 21, 2014

Hot Batter, Cold Team

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Eric Hosmer owns the longest current hitting streak in the majors, having collected a hit in 16 consecutive games. This is not just a hit here or there streak either, as Eric collected 26 hits and eight walks, good for a .413/.486/.603 slash line. The thing that stands out in the streak, however, is his run and RBI totals. In 16 games, on base over 30 times, hitting with some power, Hosmer scored just nine runs and drove in nine.

The reason can be seen in the team stats over that time frame. The Royals are hitting just .268/.309/.376. There’s no one else on base for Hosmer to drive in, and there’s no one else picking up enough hits to bring Hosmer around to score. The Royals are just 6-10 in that time frame, having scored just 53 runs. Hosmer is trying to carry the team, but can’t do it alone.

July 6, 2014

Joining the Kluber

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Corey Kluber out-pitched Danny Duffy as the Indians beat the Royals 4-1 to gain on the second place team in the AL Central. Kluber is putting himself in the Cy Young discussion, as he could finish the day 4th in AL Cy Young Tracker points. His 8 1/3 innings with one run allowed and 10 K with a win was good for 5.2 tracker points. With a 2.86 ERA, he really should be better than 8-6.

June 27, 2014

Young Power

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Mike Trout set the record for home run distance Kauffman Stadium with a 489 foot shot Friday evening. The youngster keeps doing amazing things, and setting a single season home run record in the next few seasons would not surprise me at all. The Royals got out to a big lead in the game but currently lead 8-2, as C.J. Cron homered twice for the Angels.

June 17, 2014

New Butler

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Billy Butler got off to a terrible start in 2014. For most of his career he was a player who got on base and hit for power for the Royals. His power dropped in 2013, and everything collapsed in 2014. That turned around starting on May 29th, the same day Dale Sveum took over as the Royals pitching coach. Butler came into action Tuesday night hitting .367/.409/.500 during that stretch. He’s not quite hitting for power (his high slugging percentage is mostly due to doubles and a high BA), but he’s more like the good Billy Butler again. Butler is 2 for 3 so far on Tuesday as the Royals are up 10-2 on the Tigers in the fifth, threatening to take over first place in the AL Central. Joel Sherman speculates on the improvement of Butler and others under Sveum:

Maybe KC was going to begin producing offensively no matter who was offering counsel. People who know the new hitting coach, Dale Sveum, say he believes in pulling the ball with authority, and perhaps that message resonated with a club struggling to find its power.

We’ll see how long it last, but right now, the Royals are hitting up a storm.

June 11, 2014

Stealth Batting Champion

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After a two for three afternoon against the Royal, Lonnie Chisenhall of the Indians is batting .393. Having played in 53 of the 66 Indians games, one would think he would have reached the 205 plate appearances need to qualify for the batting title. Lonnie made just 44 starts, however, so with his four PA today he stands at 189 PA. If you tack on 16 at bats that would be needed to qualify, he would be batting .359. If the season ended today, he would win the AL batting championship.

Chisenhall has been on a roll since May 14th, the day he collected five hits. In his last 26 games he’s 41 for 91. We’ll see how long he can stay hot, but at seasonal age 25, he’s just entering his peak years, so I’m not that surprised to see a big improvement.

Unfortunately, his hits were not enough as the Royals win 4-1. With four wins in a row, the Royals are in second place in the AL Central 1/2 game ahead of the Indians and 2 1/2 games behind the Tigers.

May 28, 2014

Astros Find their Offense

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The Astros won for the fifth time in a row, beating the Royals 9-3 Wednesday afternoon. It is the third time they scored nine runs in a game during the streak, after scoring just six runs during the four-game losing streak that preceded this run.

George Springer drove in two more runs on Wednesday, giving him 12 RBI in the five games. He also scored two more runs, giving him ten in the streak. With a home run today, seven of his nine hits have gone for extra bases. He is both setting up batter for RBI by getting on base, and driving home the runners ahead of him with extra base hits. He’s hitting himself into the Rookie of Year competition.

March 31, 2014 March 30, 2014

AL Central Preview

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The division continues with the AL Central. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of the STATS, Inc. depth charts and the CBSSports depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2013, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2013. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Detroit Tigers

  • Position Player WAR: 19.9
  • Starters and Closer: 25.4
  • Core Total: 45.3

The Tigers starting pitching in 2013 was very good. Almost… suspiciously good. 🙂 Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez harkened back to the glory days of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz in Atlanta. Three starters pitching like superb aces strikes me as difficult to repeat. With Verlander coming off surgery, I would expect that core pitching WAR of 25.4 won’t be repeated. Even if they fell off seven WAR, however, they would still be the best in the division by a long shot.

The Tigers rearranged their infield, trading for Ian Kinsler and moving Miguel Cabrera into the hole left by Prince Fielder. We may see Cabrera’s value drop a bit this season, for a number of reasons.

  1. He’s older, and should start declining.
  2. At first base, he gets a negative position adjustment compared to third base.
  3. Possible lingering effects from his late season injury in 2013.

Mitigating #2 would be that he can do less defensive damage at first base than at third. If Cabrera does slow down a bit, he’s likely still good enough to make the offense great.

If the pitching stands up, the Tigers win the division easily. If not, we could see an interesting race in the division.

Cleveland Indians

  • Position Player WAR: 19.4
  • Starters and Closer: 8.5
  • Core Total: 27.9

The Indians look like they are taking a step backward in 2013. After resurrecting the career of Ubaldo Jimenez, the Indians allowed him to leave as a free agent, leaving a bit of a hole in the rotation. They decided that Carlos Santana is no longer their catcher, and installed him at third base, moving Lonnie Chisenhall to designated hitter. I would think they could do better than Lonnie with a little work. Asdrubal Cabrera and John Axford bouncing back from poor years would add a few wins to the team total, but I just don’t see too much upside here.

One advantage for Cleveland (and the Royals, for that matter), is they get to play the Twins and White Sox a lot. Those two teams are very poor, and the wins against them should keep both these squads in the wild card race.

Kansas City Royals

  • Position Player WAR: 21.2
  • Starters and Closer: 12.7
  • Core Total: 33.9

The Royals would be my surprise pick to win the division. Where the 45.3 2013 core WAR for the Tigers I see as a ceiling, the 33.9 core WAR for the Royals looks like a floor. The core of this team are in their primes, and I can imagine Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer, Alcides Escobar, and Lorenzo Cain improving. Combine that with Billy Butler bouncing back from a poor power season, and I can see this group increasing their core total by seven wins. If the Tigers fall off by that much, there is now a race in the AL Central.

The Royals built this team to get to this point, and I hope they are willing to make the adjustments needed during the season to them over the top.

Minnesota Twins

  • Position Player WAR: 6.7
  • Starters and Closer: 9.4
  • Core Total: 16.1

The Twins probably aren’t this bad, but there’s not a lot of evidence to the contrary. That said, it looks like Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia will get to play. They received enough playing time in 2013 that I don’t want to adjust their numbers, but their minor league statistics indicate they should be much better than replacement level. I’d love to see Josmil Pinto get most of the starts at catcher, and have the Twins use Kurt Suzuki as a back up and defensive coach to teach Pinto the art of working behind the plate (as Bill Dickey did with Yogi Berra).

The pitching staff looks okay, with Kyle Gibson offering plenty of upside. He’s the kind of low walk pitcher the Twins love, but in the minors he combined that with high strike out rates. He should take some pressure off the defense.

Still, even if everything breaks right for the Twins, they just lack the talent to make a run at the playoffs.

Chicago White Sox

  • Position Player WAR: 7.8
  • Starters and Closer: 11.0
  • Core Total: 18.8

The White Sox core WAR is exactly the same as the Cubs. That means a very long summer of baseball in the Windy City.

The White Sox do have upside, as does any core that adds up that poorly. I rated Jose Abreu as a 2.0 WAR, because the White Sox are paying him like a 2.0 WAR player. They hope they got a bargain here, and if so, he’ll add some offense. Combine that with the possibility of Adam Eaton returning to a high OBP, and you have a nice combination at the top of the order for scoring and driving in runs.

On the pitching side, the upside belongs to a bounce back season from John Danks and continued improvement by Jose Quintana. That would give them a very good three front line starters, but with huge holes in the back of the rotation. My guess is the White Sox will perform better than in 2013, but will still fall short of the playoffs.

Probability of winning the division

  • Tigers 45%
  • Royals 40%
  • Indians 12%
  • White Sox 2%
  • Twins 1%

Royals fans should be excited.

March 18, 2014

Team Offense, Kansas City Royals

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The series on team offense continues with the Kansas City Royals. The Royals finished eighteenth in the majors and eleventh in the American League in 2013 with 4.00 runs scored per game.

The CBSSports.com projected lineup that Ned Yost may use is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results:

  • Best lineup: 4.80
  • Probable lineup: 4.73
  • Worst lineup: 4.52
  • Regressed lineup: 4.38

The projections show the Royals with five hitters projecting to very good OBPs and/or slugging percentages. For some reason, however, Yost appears to be sticking Omar Infante in the number two slot. That’s pretty much the only mistake in the lineup, however, so Ned does get about 75% of the way to the optimum lineup. I like Norichika Aoki, and the heart of Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler, and Alex Gordon, although I might bat Gordon second.

This should be a big year for the Royals offense. Six of the players are between the ages of 24 and 28, prime years for athletes. Gordon plays as a 30-year-old, so he his just leaving his prime years. Fans who were waiting for the team to mature should get a big pay off this season. That same group will all still be in their primes in 2015, so if things go right, Kansas City should get a couple of great years of run scoring out of this squad.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

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Previous posts in the series:

February 13, 2014

KC Renaissance

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Bettors in Nevada see the Royals holding their gains from the 2013 season. The odds makers have Kansas City at 85.5 wins for 2014 after winning 86 games in 2013.

Eighty five and one-half wins implies an intrinsic .525 team winning percentage. That puts the Royals in an interesting position. The 95% confidence interval for 162 games and that intrinsic winning percentage is 73 to 97 wins. In other words, a little bit of luck in either direction would take them into the playoffs or put them under .500. In this case, upping that intrinsic winning percentage by improving the team would be well worth the money spent. I suspect the Royals will take a wait and see approach. If the season goes well early, then they can trade to solidify their gains. If not, they can reconsolidate and wait for 2015. However, given the number of years since the Royals saw post-season play, any chance of making the playoffs should push management to go all in.

November 11, 2013

Cheap with Upside

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The Royals are interested in Phil Hughes:

Though the Royals haven’t been connected to Hughes in the past, it should come as no shock that they have interest. Kansas City pitching coach Dave Eiland is a longtime Hughes supporter who was also raised in the Yankees organization and knew Hughes well from his days coaching there.

Of course, Luke Hochevar, Kyle Davies, and Brian Bannister had upside as well and didn’t develop in majors. Hughes could easily fit into that mold. At least with Kansas City, they’ll give him a lot of innings while they wait.

September 24, 2013

Massive Tie Scenario

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The three teams involved in the AL Wild Card race and played on Monday all won. The highest number of wins in this scenario remains 89:

  • Royals 6-0
  • Rangers 4-2
  • Indians 3-3
  • Rays 2-4

The odds of the four-way tie are very long, but improved a bit to about 1 in 1350. The odds are still much better for one of two three-way ties. A tie between the Rays, Indians and Rangers stands at about 1 in 55, while a three-way tie that substitutes the Royals and has the Rays winning the first wild card outright comes in at about 1 in 85, a bit improvement. A three-way tie is actually more disruptive than the four-way tie, so that’s actually a very good outcome.

The NL race is much more complicated:

  • Reds 3-2
  • Pirates 3-2
  • Cardinals 1-4

The chance of this three-way is now about to 1 in 70, worsening with the Cardinals winning. That, however, doesn’t take into account the dependency of the Reds and Pirates playing each other the last three games of the season. Over the next two games, one of the Pirates or Reds has to play one game better than the other, and hope the Cardinals lose one to the Nationals. The best outcomes would by that the Cardinals lose two, one of the trailing teams wins two, and the other splits. We would then go into the weekend with the Cardinals tied with one of the trailing teams, and the other a game back. The trailing team could then win two of the final three games, and the Cardinals would need to lose two of the final three games to force the tie. The Cardinals finish the season hosting the Cubs. I believe there about a 3 in 512, or about 1 in 170 of that exact scenario happening.

So to help the massive tie scenario along, here’s what I’d like to see on Tuesday:

  • Cleveland defeats the Chicago White Sox
  • Tampa Bay falls to the Yankees
  • Cincinnati does the opposite of Pittsburg
  • Texas wins over Houston
  • St. Louis falls to Washington
  • Kansas City beats Seattle

Stay tuned. A lot needs to go right in the next two days. What really makes me happy are teams named the Pirates, Royals, and Indians are involved.

September 24, 2013

Royals Stay Alive

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The Royals would not be defeated Monday night in Seattle. They blew a 2-0 lead, then came back but blew a 5-3 lead, and headed into extra inning tied at five. Luke Hochevar, how pitched well this season out of the bullpen, gave up back-to-back home runs in the eighth inning to blow the second lead. He had only allowed six home runs coming into the game. The Mariners are a strong home run hitting team, the offense doesn’t do much else, however.

Alex Gordon proved to be the hero in extra innings:

Gordon threw out a runner at the plate in extra innings and scored on Salvador Perez‘s two-out double in the 12th to lift the Kansas City Royals over the Seattle Mariners 6-5 on Monday night.

…

Gordon saved the Royals in the 10th inning, when his one-hop throw to Perez from left field cut down Kyle Seager for an inning-ending double play.

“Alex Gordon’s golden arm, and great tag play by Salvy,” Royals manager Ned Yost said.

With two of the three teams in front of the Royals winning on Monday, Kansas City’s situation did get worse. As long as they can keeping the wins coming, they have an outside chance.

September 23, 2013

Massive Tie Scenario

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The Orioles and Yankees losing on Sunday prompted me to reduce the teams competing for the massive tie in the AL Wild Card race to four. The good thing about that is the teams remaining have no games head-to-head, so all combinations of outcomes are possible. The highest number of wins in this scenario is 89:

  • Royals 7-0
  • Rangers 5-2
  • Indians 3-3
  • Rays 3-4

The odds of the four-way tie are very long, about 1 in 1400. The two three-way ties are a bit better. A tie between the Rays, Indians and Rangers stands at about 1 in 50, while a three-way tie that substitutes the Royals and has the Rays winning the first wild card outright comes in at about 1 in 130. A three-way tie is actually more disruptive than the four-way tie, so that’s actually a very good outcome.

The Cardinals lost on Sunday, increasing the chances of a three-way tie in the NL Central:

  • Reds 4-2
  • Pirates 4-2
  • Cardinals 2-4

The chance of this three-way is now about to 1 in 50, nearly double yesterday’s odds. The caveat is that there needs to be a specific alignment of the Pirates and Reds going into the final weekend to make this possible. If they are not separated by one or three games, there’s no chance of a three-way tie here.

So to help the massive tie scenario along, here’s what I’d like to see on Monday:

  • Baltimore beats Tampa Bay
  • Cincinnati defeats the New York Mets
  • Texas wins over Houston
  • Pittsburgh defeats the Chicago Cubs
  • St. Louis falls to Washington
  • Kansas City beats Seattle

The Pirates find themselves in the position of both rooting for and against the Nationals over the next three days. 🙂

September 22, 2013

Maxwell’s Silver Hammer

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Justin Maxwell hits a grand slam with two out in the bottom of the tenth to break a scoreless tie, and the Royals defeat the Rangers 4-0. That drops Texas to 1 1/2 games behind the Indians in the AL Wild Card race. Alexi Ogando and James Shields each pitched brilliant games. The Royals loaded the bases in the tenth with none out, but a pop up and a grounder left them load, as former KC closer oakim Soria tried to send the game to the 11th. Maxwell made sure that didn’t happen.

The Royals move ahead of the Yankees, 3 1/2 games back in the wild card, three down in the loss column. The need some help the rest of the way.

September 22, 2013

Massive Tie Scenario

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To paraphrase Woody Allen, a massive tie scenario is like shark. It has to keep moving forward, or it dies, and what we have on our hands here, is a dead shark. At least one on life support. The Orioles losing to the Rays and the Royals losing to Texas set the six-way tie way back, even though the most wins for a six way tie remains at 88:

  • Royals 7-1
  • Orioles 7-1
  • Yankees 6-1
  • Rangers 4-4
  • Indians 3-4
  • Rays 3-5

One of the big problems with the six way tie is that teams are running out of opportunities to pull the leaders back to the pack. The probability of the six way flew up to 1 in 156,000. We’ll see what happens today, but the six way is pretty much dead, and the four way between the Yankees, Rangers, Indians, and Rays stands at one in 777.

Luckily, the three-way looks good at about one in 32. In fact, because the Rays, Indians, and Rangers no longer play each other, all outcomes that would lead to Rays losing one more game than the Rangers and Indians are possible. So Texas can go 8-0, Cleveland 7-0, and the Rays 7-1, but the opposite is true, where we could get the three-way tie if the Rays go 0-8. Then again, if the Rays go 0-8, the Yankees might catch them as well.

In the last two days, the Cardinals gained a game on both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, making that three-way tie less likely:

  • Reds 5-2
  • Pirates 4-3
  • Cardinals 2-5

This scenario assumes the Reds go no better than 3-1 against the Pirates. The chance of this three-way drops to 1 in 87, nearly double yesterday’s odds. We won’t even get a playoff-game if the Reds and Pirates tie for the two wild cards, as best record head-to-head gets home field advantage.

So to help the massive tie scenario along, here’s what I’d like to see on Saturday:

  • The New York Yankees defeat San Francisco
  • Baltimore beats Tampa Bay
  • Cleveland loses to Houston
  • Cincinnati defeats Pittsburgh
  • Kansas City defeats Texas
  • St. Louis falls to Milwaukee

Start the CPR!