The Orioles and Royals were both 33 to 1 to win the World Series going into spring training. If all teams are evenly matched, then each team would be 30 to 1, so bettors did not see these teams as above average. The odds on favorites, the Dodgers, are still alive. The Cardinals and Nationals were both 12 to 1, and the Giants 16 to 1, so the top for teams in the National League did make it to the NLDS.
The Royals beat the Angels 8-3 in game three to complete a sweep and advance to the ALCS. The wild card team defeats the team with the best record in the AL, and unlike the first three games the Royals played this post-season, this one was not close. The chased C.J. Wilson with three runs in the first, and poured it on for the first four innings to put the game pretty much out of reach. The Royals hitters, especially Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, got hot at the right time. Combine that with continued great defense, and the Royals can’t be beat.
By tomorrow night, the best teams in both leagues may be swept out of the playoffs by wild cards.
The Royals defense comes out for the top of the ninth, Kansas City leading LAnaheim 8-3.
Chris Iannetta, Kole Calhoun, and Mike Trout are due up to face Greg Holland.
Update: Hank Conger pinch hits.
Update: Conger falls behind 0-2. He swings and misses at a 1-2 pitch for the first out.
Update: Calhoun gets ahead 2-1. He works the count full. He hits a grounder off the pitcher’s glove, it bounds to the second baseman, who makes the play for the second out.
Update: Trout falls behind 0-2. He swings and misses for strike three, and the Royals sweep the Angels for a trip to the ALCS!
Lorenzo Cain makes two great diving catches in the top of the fifth with runners on base to keep the Angels off the board. Kansas City continues to lead the Angels 7-2.
Mike Moustakas goes deep with one out in the bottom of the fourth, and the Royals get their four-run lead back. That’s four home runs in the game, and four home runs for the Royals in four post-season games. The Angels now trail 6-2.
Update: They Royals continue to pour it on as a sacrifice fly makes the score 7-2 with two out in the fourth.
Update: The inning ends with no more damage. The Royals are five innings away from the ALCS.
Albert Pujols leads off the fourth inning with a home run, and the Royals lead is down to 5-2. Pujols was one for nine with a walk coming into that at bat.
Eric Hosmer does it again, hitting a two-run homer in the bottom of the third inning, slightly to left-center. The Royals now lead the Angels 5-1, and the probability of a sweep is climbing.
Update: The Angels don’t hold Billy Butler at first, and he steals second. You know your team is having a bad day when Billy Butler steals second with a 5-1 lead.
The Royals use two singles and a walk to load the bases for Alex Gordon. I’m still surprised he bats sixth, but today that puts him in a perfect position to do a lot of damage with the Royals trailing the Angels 1-0 in the bottom of the first.
Update: Gordon just misses a home run as he hits a triple off the wall in left-center. Even Billy Butler scores on that! The Angels lead doesn’t last long, and neither does C.J. Wilson as the Angels go to the bullpen trailing 3-1.
Update: It was a double, not a triple. The broadcast really should wait for the scoring. 🙂
Update: Vinnie Pestano comes on in relief and induces a pop up to end the inning. I suspect fewer women will want to smell C.J. Wilson’s hair after that performance.
Mike Trout homers in his first at bat into the fountain to give the Angels an early 1-0 lead. Trout was 0 for 8 with two walks in the series. That was unlikely to continue.
Update: That’s all the Angels get in the first as the Royals come to bat.
Baltimore sweeps the Tigers 3-0, winning game three 2-1 in a great duel between Bud Norris and David Price. The difference was a home run by Nelson Cruz that no one though was going to be a home run, but landed just over the fence in right next to the foul pole.
The Orioles bullpen pitched well again. They faced ten batters and allowed two hits today and for the series Tigers batters went 9 for 42 with three walks and 11 strikeouts against the Orioles relievers.
The Orioles now await the winner of the Royals and Angels. Game three is about to get underway, and a Royals win sends them to Baltimore for the ALCS.
For the third game in a row, the Royals go into extra innings, and for the third game in a row, the Royals win. Eric Hosmer hit a two-run homer in the top of the 11th inning, and Alex Gordon‘s base running helped them add extra insurance as the Angels lose 4-1. The Royals now just need to win one of the two games in their home park to advance to the ALCS. It was the first time a team won three consecutive extra inning games in the post season, and I bet it doesn’t happen that often in the regular season!
Hosmer’s career has been a bit of a disappointment. He showed signs of maturing into a very good hitter in 2013, but regressed in 2014. He’s now six for eleven with a triple and a home run, four runs scored and three RBI in three post-season games. My guess is the Royals fans think it was worth the wait.
The Royals take game one of their ALDS series against the Angels as Mike Moustakas homers in the top of the 11th inning, and Kansas City goes on to a 3-2 victory. Both teams collected just four hits, as the pitching and defense played well. The Angels, however, could not take advantage of five walks and a hit batter as they went 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position and only scored on two solo home runs. Three of the four Royals hits were for extra bases, so they were able to take advantage of one of their four walks, and advance a runner home from second with outs. The one defensive lapse in the game, Mike Trout losing a ball in the lights, turned out to be pivotal, as it led to the Royals second run.
Kansas City now owns home field advantage in the series. The Royals were 5-7 in extra inning games during the regular season.
For the second time in as many post-season games, the Royals go to extra innings. The Angels put the lead-off man on in both the eight and ninth innings, but failed to score. They are 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position, and the Royals are 0 for 2.
I’m off to bed.
Alex Gordon gets a double as Mike Trout loses a ball in the lights leading off the fifth inning. Two deep fly balls later, Gordon comes around to score for a 2-1 Royals lead over the Angels. A little bit of luck never hurts.
The teams go to the bottom of the fifth with the Royals in the lead.
Update: Once again, the Angels use a home run to tie the game, this time David Freese going deep in the bottom of the fifth. The teams go to the sixth tied at two.
Update: The Angels get their first non-home run hit in the sixth, as well as their first walk. Nori Aoki, however, makes a great catch at the wall on a ball Cain tried to catch high. Aoki got it low. Jason Vargas faced 22 batter batters so far, and of the 17 balls put into play that the Royals could handle, 16 were turned into outs. The Royals defense is doing their job, Vargas just needs to keep the ball in the park.
Mike Moustakas walked with two out in the top of the third, and Alcides Escobar drives him home with a double off the wall in leftfield. The Royals take a 1-0 lead. They have two hits and two walks so far, but they also lost two runners to a double play and a pick off. The Angels are still looking for their first hit as the game heads to the bottom of the third.
Update: The first hit for the Angels ties the game as Chris Iannetta homers with two out in the third, into the front bullpen in leftfield. The game is tied at one at the end of three innings.
The Royals travel to Anaheim for the Wild Card series of the ALDS against the Angels, as LA of A won the title of best record in the AL.
Here’s how the teams stack up offensively:
| Category | Royals | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| Runs per Game | 4.02 (9th) | 4.77 (1st) |
| Batting Average | .263 | .259 |
| On Base Percentage | .314 | .322 |
| Slugging Percentage | .376 | .406 |
| Home Runs | 95 | 155 |
| SB-CS | 153-36 | 81-39 |
The Royals offense reminds me of the 2002 Angels offense. That team also put the ball in play, last in the AL in walks and strikeouts, just like the Royals. They negated the advantage of high strikeout staffs, outs not dependent on fielders, by hacking and making the other team play defense. We saw how Oakland was not able to handle that on Tuesday night.
The 2002 Angels did hit for some power, but the Royals make up for that a bit with their base stealing. When I try to explain slugging percentage, I tend to put it in the context of moving runners. The higher the slugging percentage of a batter, the more likely he is to move runners multiple bases. Slugging is a distance measure. What it actually measures is the average distance the batter moves himself toward home plate in an at bat. Higher slugging batters are more likely to move themselves into scoring position with a hit. When the Royals attempt a high number of steals at a high success rate, they are essentially increasing that aspect of their slugging percentage, the aspect that matters when the bases are empty.
The Royals do give outs away with sacrifice hits, but so do the Angels. Most of the bunts in the wild card game seemed to come in appropriate situations, at least.
The Angels have the best all-around player in the league in Mike Trout. He gets on base, hits for power, runs well, plays defense well, and scores and drives in run. The rest of the hitters do one thing well. Howie Kendrick and Chris Iannetta get on base. Albert Pujols and C.J. Cron hit for power. Arranged correctly around Trout, the Angels are capable of scoring well in a low run environment.
The following table shows the defensive side of the teams:
| Category | Royals | Angels |
|---|---|---|
| ERA | 3.51 (4th) | 3.58 (7th) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 7.2 | 8.1 |
| Walks per 9 IP | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| Home Runs per 9 IP | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| BABIP Allowed | .292 | .285 |
| FIP | 3.69 | 3.57 |
The Angels pitching may not be as strong as they look here. Garrett Richards had a lot to do with that high strikeout rate. Matt Shoemaker picked up the slack after Richards was injured, but he missed the last two weeks of the season with a rib injury. He says he’s ready to pitch in the post season, however. Of course, they still have Jered Weaver, who this season became the veteran who knows how to win. He went 18-9 despite a 3.59 ERA, his highest for a season since 2009.
The Royals may not be putting their best foot forward with starting pitchers, either. Due to the playoff chase, Jeremy Guthrie may start game one, with the iffy Danny Duffy in game two. The Royals will need to do a better job of getting to the meat of their bullpen if the starters can’t go deep. Both pens are very good.
This could be the most National League like ALDS ever. Even with all the bunting the Angels superior offense should make the difference in the series. I give the Angels a 60% chance of advancing to the ALCS.
Update: It looks like Jason Vargas will start game one.
Jason Vargas will start Game One.
— Andy McCullough (@ByMcCullough) October 1, 2014
My point remains the same.
The Royals collect seven stolen bases and four sacrifice hits, beating two home runs by Oakland 9-8. Of course, the big 12th inning triple by Eric Hosmer got the winning inning going as the Royals staged their third comeback of the night to win the game. It took a long time to get back to the playoffs, and a long time to finish the game, but the Royals farm system came through. Hosmer went three for four with two walks, Billy Butler drove in two runs, Mike Moustakas had a big hit and scored a run, and Salvador Perez had the game winning hit. An amazing night in the mid-west.
Josh Reddick walks and gets sacrificed to start the 12th inning for the Atletics. This game might set the record for sacrifice bunts in an AL game this season. The score is still tied at seven.
Update: Jason Frasor is on to pitch for the Royals.
Update: Alberto Callaspo pinch hits. A wild pitch puts the runner on third.
Update: Callaspo singles to left, and Oakland takes an 8-7 lead.
Update: Derek Norris strikes out looking for the second out.
Update: Nick Punto falls behind 1-2. He pops out in foul territory to end the inning. Oakland is three outs away from advancing to the ALDS. Does KC have one more comeback?
Update: Lorenzo Cain faces Dan Otero leading off the bottom of the 12th.
Update: Cain falls behind 1-2. He grounds out to first for the first out.
Update: Eric Hosmer falls behind 1-2. He hits a 2-2 pitch to the wall in left-center, where Jonny Gomes and Sam Fuld collide, both jumping for a ball out of reach. Hosmer winds up on third with a triple.
Update: Christian Colon hits a Baltimore chop, Donaldson can’t field it, and Hosmer scores. The winning run is at first as the Royals tie the game at eight!
Update: As the A’s make a pitching change, might Coco Crisp have made that catch in left-center?
Update: Fernando Abad faces Alex Gordon. Gordon pops out foul on the first pitch. Two out.
Update: Jason Hammel comes on to pitch to Salvador Perez.
Update: Perez falls behind 1-2. Colon steals successfully on a pitch out, as Derek Norris drops the ball.
Update: Perez fouls off a pitch, then lines the next one past Donaldson at third, and the Royals win 9-8! Perez had been 0-5 in the game, but no one will remember that. The Royals are going to Anaheim, and the Oakland Athletics are going home.
All those starters the A’s acquired in trades will watch the playoffs at home.
Oakland goes down 1-2-3 in the tenth. If the Royals score for the third inning in a row, they win and travel to Anaheim. The game is tied at seven.
Update: Eric Hosmer hits a slow roller up the middle. The shortstop stops the ball but can’t throw Eric out. A sacrifice bunt puts Hosmer at second.
Update: Alex Gordon grounds a 1-1 pitch to short for the second out, but Hosmer advances to third. Two down, but a ball that gets by the catcher would be huge for the Royals.
Update: Salvador Perez grounds an 0-1 pitch to second to end the inning. This one goes to 11.
The Royals face Sean Doolittle in the bottom of the ninth, Kansas City trailing 7-6. Josh Willingham pinch hits and leads off.
Update: Willingham bloops a single into right, down the line against an outfield shift. Jarrod Dyson comes in to pinch run.
Update: Dyson moves to second on the sacrifice bunt.
Update: Nori Aoki gets ahead 2-0. On a 2-1 pitch, Dyson steals third. The count is 3-1, and a sacrifice fly ties the game.
Update: Aoki hits a fly ball deep down the line in right. Josh Reddick has to catch it with his back to the infield, and the Royals tie the game at seven! They are a never say die team.
Update: Lorenzo Cain hits a hard line drive, but right at the shortstop for the third out. The game goes to extra innings. It’s been a great game so far.
Jon Lester leaves after the Royals score a run and mount a threat with a man reaching on an error, a single, a walk, and two stolen bases. Oakland leads Kansas City 7-4 as Billy Butler comes to the plate representing the tying run with one out in the bottom of the eighth. This is a big opportunity for the Royals to put up a crooked number.
Update: Luke Gregerson comes in, and Butler lines a single to right-center to drive in his second run of the game, and the Oakland lead is down to 7-5. Terrance Gore pinch runs for Butler, as Gore represents the tying run.
Update: Gore steals second, the third stolen base of the innings. The Royals have second and third with one out, tying runs in scoring position.
Update: A wild pitch brings another run home and moves the tying run to third. Alex Gordon just needs a sacrifice fly to bring the teams even.
Update: Alex Gordon walks. A sacrifice fly still ties the game, but catcher Salvador Perez could hit into a double play.
Update: Gregerson strikes out the last two batters to preserve the lead. The Royals made it a game again, going to the ninth inning with Oakland leading 7-6.
The Athletics start the top of the sixth with a single and a walk, and Ned Yost pulls James Shields from the game. He was strong for five innings, but in a one and done game, Yost can’t take the chance that Shields blows up here. Yordano Ventura, usually a starter, comes on to pitch.
Update: Ventura faces Brandon Moss, and Moss hits a smash over the fence in centerfield. Moss hits his second home run of the game, and Oakland takes a 5-3 lead.
I haven’t heard Kauffman Stadium this quiet since Freddie Patek grounded into a double play to end the 1976 ALCS.
Update: You have to wonder, with the great bullpen of the Royals, why not go to the live arms early and let each one pitch an extra out? Yost will be skewered for this decision.
Update: Oakland is pouring it on in the sixth. They keep picking up hits, and are still batting with two more runs in and a 7-3 lead. They’ve batted around in the inning already.
At the end of five innings, the Royals lead the Athletics 3-2. So far, James Shields is out-pitching Jon Lester. Shields walked one and struck out six, while Lester walked one and struck out three. Shields did allow a home run for Oakland’s two run, but Lester’s defense didn’t help him as a couple of missed plays in the first led to a run, and a hit against the shift led to another. It’s the low scoring, close games I expected so far.
Lorenzo Cain gets the second two-out RBI hit as he doubles to drive in Mike Moustakas in the bottom of the third, tying the game at two. Moustakas singled against the shift to start the inning, and reach third on a bunt and a ground out.
Eric Hosmer bloops a hit into left to drive in the third run of the game as the Royals take a 3-2 lead.
Geovany Soto hurt his thumb on the tag play at home in the bottom of the first. He caught the second, but can’t continue, so Derek Norris is coming in. The emergency catcher may get called into duty.
The Athletics still lead the Royals 2-1 in the top of the third.
Oakland shows some shaky infield defense in the first, putting a batter on with an error and failing to turn a double play. Then a Jon Lester walk set up a two-out, RBI single by Billy Butler to cut the Oakland lead to 2-1. I’d love to see Billy Butler play well in the post season, given his poor play in 2014.
Butler winds up starting a pick-off play as he wandered off first. Eric Hosmer wound up getting thrown out at the plate to end the inning. So far, a positive and a negative for Butler.
Coco Crisp leads off for Oakland against James Shields in the first post-season game in Kansas City since 1985. Crisp singles to left to start the game.
Update: Brandon Moss hits a two-out, two-run homer to put Oakland up 2-0. The A’s power struck me as a possible difference maker, and so far that’s working out. The KC defense can’t stop a home run.
The Oakland Athletics travel to Kansas City to play the Royals for the right to advance to the ALDS. The game takes place Tuesday night at 8 PM EDT on TBS. Jon Lester faces James Shields.
Lester and Shields faced each other a number of times, as the Red Sox and Rays played head-to-head often in the American League East. Lester got the better of Shields in those six games they started against each other. Lester won four and lost one, with a 2.37 ERA. Shields won one and lost four, with a 3.96 ERA.
The Royals hit better against left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching this season, although in a much smaller sample. That did not help them against Lester, who is 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA against the Kansas City this season.
Oakland, on the other hand, hits right-handed pitchers better than left-handers. Shields went 1-0 against Oakland in two starts with a 3.21 ERA.
I think it’s safe to say the starting pitching assignments favor the Athletics. The other thing that may or may not favor the A’s is that they were a much better team than their record, while the Royals were worse than theirs. The ESPN expanded standing show Oakland’s predicted wins based on their runs scored and allowed at 100, the Royals at 84. Often that comes from doing well or poorly in close games, but both teams finished under .500 in one-run contests. Oakland did go 29-16 in games decide by five runs or more, while the Royals went 20-13.
One thing that does favor the Royals is their defense against the Oakland offense. The Royals ranked second in UZR per 150, meaning they are very good at turning batted balls into outs. The Athletics ranked lowest in BABIP, meaning their balls in play didn’t turn into hits very often. When you put bad hitters against a good defense, the hitters should get worse.
I expect a low scoring, close game. While the Royals bullpen is highly touted, the Oakland bullpen posted a lower ERA. Whichever team has the lead going into the seventh is likely to come out on top. I see Oakland as a slight favorite.
Enjoy!
Marcus Semien hits a two-run homer in the third as the White Sox tie the Royals at two. It’s the first home run allowed by Yordano Ventura since July.
At three PM EDT, the Tigers lead the Twins 1-0, Aaron Hicks robbing Miguel Cabrera of a long double in centerfield to save a run in the bottom of the seventh. A Tiger win knocks out one potential playoff game. The Pirates and Reds are tied at one, both Gerrit Cole and Johnny Cueto pitching well. The Pirates need to win to keep another tie scenario alive. They Royals lead the White Sox 2-0, and the Royals need to win to have a shot at an AL Central title, although a Tigers win would make that race moot. The Athletics are about to get underway in Texas.
Things are going okay so far. All three games underway are still well in play for the tie result.