Tag Archives: Kansas City Royals

October 21, 2014

Rare Royals Slip

A lead-off walk to Gregor Blanco in the top of the seventh leads to a run as Joe Panik is credited with an RBI triple to earn the RBI. The triple, however, was based on a poor fielding play by the Royals rightfielder, Nori Aoki. He took a bad route to the ball, then tried to slide to stop it and the ball scooted by him. It’s a rare poor defensive play for Kansas City. The Giants lead 6-0.

Update: With one out, Pablo Sandoval singles through a drawn in infield, and the Giants lead 7-0.

Update: That’s it for the Giants as they lead 7-0 at the stretch.

Update: Salvador Perez homers in the bottom of the seventh to put the Royals on the board. They still trail 7-1 at the end of seven.

October 21, 2014

Shutout Through Six

The Giants and Royals just completed the sixth inning, with the Giants continuing to lead 5-0. Madison Bumgarner continues to be a road warrior in the playoffs. He allowed just two hits, a walk, and a hit by pitch while striking out five. So far, the game has been all Giants on the mound and with the bat.

October 21, 2014

Pence Pounds

Hunter Pence doubles and moves to third on a wild pitch to start the top of the fourth inning. With his home run earlier in the game, Pence now owns half a cycle. Kauffman Stadium is a great triples park, so a cycle seems a real possibility.

Brandon Belt follows with a walk to give the Giants a big threat in the inning.

The Giants lead the Royals 3-0.

Update: Michael Morse singles to center, driving in Pence, and the Giants extend their lead to 4-0. James Shields is out of the game.

Update: Relief pitcher Danny Duffy faces pinch-hitter Juan Perez, and Perez sacrifices the runners to second and third. One out.

Update: Brandon Crawford walks to load the bases.

Update: Duffy walks Gregor Blanco, and the Giants lead 5-0.

Update: Duffy strikes out Joe Panik for the second out.

Update: Buster Posey flies out to right to end the inning. The Royals hole gets deeper as the Giants lead 5-0.

October 21, 2014

Error Threat

Brandon Crawford boots a grounder to start the bottom of the third, and Mike Moustakas follows with a double to put runners on second and third for the Royals with no one out. The Giants lead the Royals 3-0, as James Shields settled down after the first inning.

Update: Alcides Escobar strikes out swinging. One down.

Update: Nori Aoki strikes out trying to check his swing. Madison Bumgarner is coming up big against a team known for putting the ball in play.

Update: Lorenzo Cain falls behind 0-2, then works the count full. The payoff pitch is low, and the bases are loaded with two out.

Update: Eric Hosmer swings at the first pitch and grounds out to second. Bumgarner does a great job of pitching out of a jam, and the Giants continue to lead 3-0 at the end of three.

October 21, 2014

Royals Bat

The Royals get one batter on in the bottom of the first as Lorenzo Cain is hit by a pitch. Eric Hosmer hits a long fly ball to right-center, but Gregor Blanco runs it down to end the inning. It’s 3-0 Giants at the end of one.

October 21, 2014

World Series Underway

James Shields faces Gregor Blanco to start the game. Blanco dumps a 2-2 pitch in front of Lorenzo Cain to start the game with a single.

Update: Nice base running by Blanco as Panik files out to deep left-center, and Blanco tags and moves to second.

Update: Buster Posey lines a single into leftfield, putting runners on first and third. Fox shows a great replay of Buster’s swing, his eye right on the ball.

Update: Shields finally gets the ball down, but it’s to the lefty Pablo Sandoval, who golfs the pitch into the rightfield corner. Blanco scores, but Posey is thrown out at the plate. The Giants lead 1-0. Sending Posey negates the good base running by Blanco earlier in the inning.

Update: Hunter Pence blasts a two-strike pitch over the fence to the right of center, and the Giants lead 3-0. Looks like Big Game James didn’t show up again.

Update: Brandon Belt hits a line drive single to center for the fifth hit of the inning. The Giants are doing a great job of squaring up the ball against Shields.

Update: Michael Morse strikes out to end the inning. The Giants lead 3-0. The Royals need another of their patented comebacks, this time against Madison Bumgarner.

October 21, 2014

Playoffs Today

After four days with no games, the World Series gets underway in Kansas City Tuesday night. Madison Bumgarner takes the hill for the Giants against James Shields. Bumgarner pitched impressively in the post-season so far. In four starts he accumulated 31 2/3 innings, allowed just 19 hits and five walks while striking out 28. His ERA stands at 1.42. He did pitch at Kauffman Stadium for the first time in his career this season. Bumgarner took the loss after giving up four runs in eight innings, three earned. He walked none and struck out five. That’s pitching against the Royals; few strikeouts and fewer walks.

Shields did not face Bumgarner that day, but did take on the Giants in the following game. He spun a four-hit shutout, allowing one walk while striking out five. It’s the only time in his career that Shields faced the Giants.

Big Game James (or Big Stone James) has been less than big in the playoffs so far. He is 1-0, and Kansas City undefeated, despite his 5.63 ERA. He allowed 21 hits in 16 innings despite 15 strikeouts. Maybe with the Kidney Stone gone, he’ll be back to himself.

Enjoy!

October 20, 2014

Song Silliness

San Francisco radio stations are not playing the song Royals. The song, however, is about not being royals:

And we’ll never be royals (royals).
It don’t run in our blood,
That kind of luxe just ain’t for us.
We crave a different kind of buzz.

That seems rather appropriate for the team competing against the Royals.

Maybe the stations can play this one instead:

October 19, 2014

World Series Preview, Giants Versus Royals

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The Giants and Royals begin the World Series Tuesday night in Kansas City. The teams have never met in a post-season series before.

Here’s how the teams stack up offensively (ranks are for the team’s league):

2014 Offensive Team numbers
Category	Giants	Royals
Runs per Game	4.10 (5th)	4.02 (9th)
Batting Average	.255	.263
On Base Percentage	.311	.314
Slugging Percentage	.388	.376
Home Runs	132	95
SB-CS	56-27	153-36

Based on the regular season, the Giants come into the series with a better offense. They outscored the Royals, and did that with a pitcher usually starting the game in the lineup. The Royals did a better job of collecting hits and getting on base, but the extra 37 home runs the Giants made up of that as San Francisco outscored the Royals by 14 runs in 2014.

Of course, in a short series, unusual things can happen. The Royals used the long ball to beat the best home run team in the game, the Orioles. The Cardinals out-homered the Giants in the NLCS, but the shots the Giants hit were of the high-leverage variety.

Note that the great base stealing by the Royals compared to the Giants came nowhere near making up for the lack of home runs.

Offensively, there may not be a home field advantage in this series, since both parks reward players who can hit the ball in the gaps for extra bases.

The following table shows the defensive side of the teams:

2014 Pitching numbers
Category	Giants	Royals
ERA	3.50 (7th)	3.51 (4th)
Strikeouts per 9 IP	7.5	7.2
Walks per 9 IP	2.4	2.7
Home Runs per 9 IP	0.8	0.8
BABIP Allowed	.282	.292
FIP	3.58	3.69

The Giants owned a better ERA and FIP, but the Royals achieved their numbers in a league with a designated hitter. The Giants higher strike out rate is mostly due to their striking out opposing pitchers in 45.4% of their plate appearances. If opposing pitchers struck out at 19.1%, the rate Giants struck out opposing position players, they would drop to 7.1 K per nine. (The Royals faced opposing pitcher 19 times and recorded six strikeouts.) Both teams have the same home run rate. Although the Royals have a reputation as a great defensive team, the Giants, with the lower BABIP, did a better job of turning batted balls into outs.

In the end, we have two teams that are evenly matched, one has slightly better offense, one has slightly better pitching. One likes to play small ball, but beat the Orioles with home runs. One likes to play long ball, but beat the Cardinals by putting the ball in play with runners on. I expect this to be a close series, and I would not be at all surprised if lucky or unlucky bounce decided the series.

Based on home field advantage, I make the Royals a slight favorite with a 51% chance of winning the World Series.

October 17, 2014

What are the Odds

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Here are the latest World Series odds, compared to the last five years. Thanks to Jimmy Shapiro and Bovada.lv.

2009 WORLD SERIES – SERIES PRICES
New York Yankees -210 (10/21)
Philadelphia Phillies +175 (7/4)

2010 WORLD SERIES – SERIES PRICES
Texas Rangers -135 (20/27)
San Francisco Giants +115 (23/20)

2011 WORLD SERIES – SERIES PRICES
Texas Rangers -155 (20/31)
St. Louis Cardinals +125 (5/4)

2012 WORLD SERIES – SERIES PRICES
Detroit Tigers -175 (4/7)
San Francisco Giants +155 (31/20)

2013 WORLD SERIES – SERIES PRICES
St. Louis Cardinals +120 (6/5)
Boston Red Sox -140 (5/7)

2014 WORLD SERIES – SERIES PRICES
Kansas City Royals -120 (5/6)
San Francisco Giants EVEN (1/1)

Exact Series Result
San Francisco Giants 4-0 12/1
San Francisco Giants 4-1 6/1
San Francisco Giants 4-2 5/1
San Francisco Giants 4-3 9/2
Kansas City Royals 4-0 12/1
Kansas City Royals 4-1 11/2
Kansas City Royals 4-2 4/1
Kansas City Royals 4-3 15/4

As you can see, this one is tough to call. Note too, that the betting public was wrong in three of the previous five years.

October 16, 2014

The Extra Game Doesn’t Work

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One reason MLB added a wild card play-in game was to give the wild card teams a disadvantage. That obviously didn’t work as two wild card teams, both with less than 90 wins, are going to compete for the World Series Championship. Oops.

Maybe both wild card games should be played on Tuesday, with the LDS starting on Wednesday. There are still too many days off. We will wait until Tuesday for the World Series to start. I’d love to see all the series lose the second day off, so that there is less time to wait if series go short.

October 16, 2014

Requiem for the Orioles

With all the joy generated by the Royals making the World Series, I feel compelled to point out that the Orioles have gone a longer time without reaching or winning the World Series. The 1983 season marks Baltimore’s last trip to the fall classic. I will grant you that the Orioles had some success in the 1990s making the playoffs, and were in the post-season in recent years. But while Royals fans are certainly long suffering, a World Series win would give them one about even 30 years, which is just about right. They have reached the World Series in three of their 46 years in existence, which is also about right. Of the teams that made the playoffs this season, the Orioles, Tigers, Pirates, and Nationals/Expos have gone longer without winning a World Series. While I’m very glad the Royals are smoking their post-season opponents, this would have been just a big a deal if the Orioles had won the series.

October 15, 2014

Royals AL Champs

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The Cinderella season continues for the Royals as they sweep the Orioles with consecutive 2-1 wins over the Orioles. Once again, Kansas City fielders flashed the leather, robbing the Orioles of hits, and the pitchers for the most part kept the Orioles in the park. The Royals out homered the Orioles 4-2.

The Royals are just not winning series, they are unstoppable. They’ve won all eight post-season games they’ve played. Throughout the playoffs, they’ve won with small ball, long ball, great relief pitching and great defense. They beat the Oakland Athletics, a team which at one time had the best record in the American League. They beat the LAnaheim Angels, the team with the best record in the AL. They beat the Orioles, the team with the second best record in the AL. They go into the World Series with home field advantage.

It’s been quite a ride for a team that has not been to the post-season in nearly three decades. Lorenzo Cain win the ALCS MVP. He posted a .533/.588/.667 slash line and played outstanding defense, as did Mike Moustakas and others. A great, no doubt about it ALCS win.

Congratulations to the Royals!

October 15, 2014

Three More Outs

The Royals threaten but do not score in the bottom of the eighth. Greg Holland comes on to pitch for Kansas City with a 2-1 lead over the Orioles. If he records three outs without allowing a run, the Royals get the golden ticket, and win a trip to the World Series.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUIlKbZKha0

Update: Adam Jones leads off and falls behind 0-2. He works the count for a walk, however, giving the Orioles a runner on first with no one out. Nelson Cruz comes to the plate.

Update: Cruz bounces back to the box, but a poor throw to second means the Royals only get the force. The Orioles now have Cruz on first with one out.

Update: Alejandro De Aza pinch runs with Delmon Young at the plate.

Update: Young falls behind 1-2. He fouls off a pitch, then swings and misses for strike three. Two down.

Update: J.J. Hardy falls behind 1-2. He fouls off a pitch, then grounds to third for the third out. The Royals win the pennant!

October 15, 2014

Close at the Stretch

The Orioles and Royals are involved in another close game, Kansas City leading 2-1 at the seventh inning stretch. The Orioles collected three hits and three walks, their only run coming on a Ryan Flaherty homer. The Royals have four hits and four walks through six innings, their runs scoring on a play at the plate where the ball got away from the catcher. The big bullpen arms are ready to pitch for the Royals as they need six outs to advance to the World Series.

Update: The Orioles get a hit in the eighth, but that’s it. It’s 2-1 Royals going to the bottom of the eighth.

October 15, 2014

Another Bad Play

The Royals are going to bring back the bunt to the entire majors with this post season. The first two Royals reach on a single up the middle that hits second base, then a hit by pitch. After they are sacrificed into scoring position, Eric Hosmer hits a ground ball to second, and the throw comes home. The catcher, Caleb Joseph, gets the ball on the edge of his glove, but not in his glove. He slides the glove to the sliding runner, but the ball is rolling, and Alcides Escobar‘s sliding foot kicks it away. Both runners score, and the Royals are up 2-0 in the bottom of the first inning. The Royals are getting all the good bounces in the last two games.

October 15, 2014

Bullpen Works

They Royals are now 7-0 in the 2014 post-season (ten in a row in the post-season dating back to 1985). The strength for the team coming into the playoffs was their bullpen, especially the three relievers set up to be the triple closers, Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland. Each finished the season with an ERA under 2.00. As I’ve noted before, the Royals did not tax their bullpen during the regular season, as relievers accounted for slightly less than 32% of the innings pitched by the team. MLB teams averaged 33.5% of innings going to relievers. Now, in the post-season, Ned Yost has no problem going to the pen early. The Royals pen accounted for 44% of the team innings so far in the three rounds, and 43% of the batters faced. The starters are pitching well, with a .243/.301/.401 slash line against them, but the pen turning the opposition into good hitting pitchers with a .182/.268/.227 slash line allowed. They’ll give you a walk, but nothing else. Ned Yost allowed his starters to get into trouble in the regular season, but not now. He’s closing the door early and often.

Note that this strategy can be dangerous. One bad inning by a reliever can change the course of a close game, and that can easily happen in the small sample size that is the post season. So far, the Royals avoided the bad luck. It’s a Strat-o-Matic strategy. I’ve noticed over the years a number of successful players of the board game load up on great relievers, then play shut down and match-ups the rest of the way. Yost doesn’t even bother with the match-ups. He just lets his big three blow away batters. The team did a great job of leveraging their strength so far.

October 14, 2014

Perfect Pen

The Royals use four relievers, and each retires all three batters he faces as the Royals hold on for a 2-1 win in game three of the ALCS. The Orioles could simply make solid contact. The Royals pen struck out just three, but the Orioles could not get anything by the Royals defense.

Kansas City runs their 2014 post-season win streak to seven, and they just need to win one of the next four games to advance to the World Series for the first time since 1985.

The odds right now favor an all-wild card World Series, as the Giants lead the Cardinals 2-1 in the NLCS.

October 14, 2014

Royals Take the Lead

Jarrod Dyson scores on a sacrifice fly by Billy Butler and the Royals lead the Orioles 2-1 in the bottom of the sixth. Nori Aoki singled, and Dyson came in as a pinch runner. The Orioles did a good job of holding him at first, but a hit by Eric Hosmer got by a holding Steve Pearce, sending Dyson to third to set up the sacrifice fly. The Orioles prevented the steal, but they set up the run anyway.

The game goes to the seventh with the Royals holding a 2-1 lead and set up for their bullpen.

October 14, 2014

Into the Seats

Mike Moustakas makes a great catch in foul territory, falling over the fence into the dugout seats down the third base line. The Royals fans kept Moustakas from falling on his head as he makes his second great play of the game. The Orioles and Royals remain tied at one in the top of the sixth inning.

October 14, 2014

Two Bloops

Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer dump bloop hits into shallow centerfield to put runners on first and second in bottom of the fourth for Billy Butler. With one, out, can he deliver the blast?

The Orioles lead the Royals 1-0.

Update: Butler walks to load the bases for Alex Gordon. I’m sure Earl Weaver likes single, single, walk, grand slam.

Update: Not quite. Gordon grounds into the hole between first and second. The Orioles get just one out, and the run scores to tie the game at one.

Update: Salvador Perez pops out to end the inning. It’s 1-1 after four innings.

October 14, 2014

In Play Game

The Orioles lead the Royals 1-0 at the end of three innings. Of the 23 batters that came to the plate so far, only three failed to put the ball in play. With the teams combining for five hits, the teams are only hitting .250 on balls in play. So far, good defense on both sides is keeping the score low.

October 14, 2014

First Blood

The Orioles get on the board in the top of the second as doubles by Steve Pearce and J.J. Hardy push a run home. For Pearce, it was his first hit in the ALCS after going 3 for 10 in the ALDS.

October 14, 2014

Playoffs Today

The NLCS moves to San Francisco as the Cardinals and the Giants play game three of the series tied at one. A win by the Cardinals returns their home field advantage. It’s veterans day on the mound, as John Lackey takes on Tim Hudson at a 4 PM EDT start. Lackey did not pitch as well after the trade from Boston to St. Louis. His hits allowed and home runs allowed went up, as did his ERA. He did, however, continue his fine post-season pitching, allowing one run in seven innings against the Dodgers to lower his post-season ERA to 2.92. Lackey last allowed a post-season home run in the 2008 LDS. He pitched in six post-season series since without allowing a long ball.

Hudson makes the first LCS appearance of his career, never advancing out of the LDS round before. His only win in the post-season came in 2001, despite a 3.19 ERA in ten starts and one relief appearance. He made one start against the Cardinals this season, and pitched extremely well. In seven innings, he allowed three hits and two walks while striking out six.

At 8 PM EDT, the Orioles and Royals should resume the ALCS after a rainout on Monday. The weather report looks good. Wei-Yin Chen faces Jeremy Guthrie. The Tigers figured out Chen the second time through the lineup in the ALDS. He allowed just one hit through the first three innings, then gave up six hits, including a double and two home runs in the fourth. The Orioles bullpen is rested, so look for Buck Showalter go there quickly if Chen gets in trouble again.

Guthrie’s first post-season appearance comes against the team that turned him into a starter. With the Orioles, Guthrie was basically someone who pitched to contact, with both a low walk rate and a low strikeout rate. He tended to allow a lot of home runs, part of that attributable to the park. With the Royals, he allows home runs at home at about half the rate he does on the road, so he is starting in the right park against the powerful Baltimore hitters.

Enjoy!

October 13, 2014

Game Three on Tuesday

The Monday night game between the Orioles and Royals was postponed due to rain.

The game was pushed back from Monday to Tuesday at 8:07 p.m. ET. Game 4 was rescheduled for Wednesday at 4:07 p.m. ET. Game 5, if needed, will be Thursday at 4:07 p.m. ET.

October 12, 2014

New Look Royals

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Where did this Royals team come from? After two games of the ALCS the Royals have four home runs, nine walks, just one sacrifice hit, and one stolen base in three tries. Where is the slash and run team? Could it be that in Camden Yards, a park friendly to the long ball, they altered their game to take advantage of the what the stadium offers? If so, the Royals are better managed than I thought going in. It also means that the Orioles will have a tough time bring the series back to Baltimore. Kauffman Stadium does not favor the type of one dimensional offense the Orioles bring to the table. They’ll never be Royals.

October 11, 2014

Long Game

I just got home to find the Royals still playing, but just in the ninth. The score is tied at five. It has been a game of opposites as the Royals hit a home run and drew walks, while the Orioles stole two bases.

October 10, 2014

Playoffs Today

The Royals and Orioles start the American League Championship Series this evening in Baltimore. James Shields faces Chris Tillman. Shields makes his third start of the 2014 post-season. In 11 innings he struck out 12 and walked four, but allowed three home runs, helping him to a 4.91 ERA in those starts. More importantly, he did not go deep in those games, forcing the Royals into their bullpen earlier than desired. The home runs are worrisome, since the Orioles offense lives off the long ball. Shields has a history of allowing home runs, and despite a low career OBP, he gives up nearly half of them with men on. He’s the type of pitcher the Orioles can beat. On the other hand, in two starts against Baltimore (both early int he season), he held them to one home run in 14 innings and five runs.

Tillman, like Shields, pitched well in terms of walks and strikeouts in his ALDS start, with six Ks and one BB in five innings of work. The only runs off him came on two solo home runs, and he lasted just five innings. Like Shields, he also has a tendency to allow home runs, but the Royals hit the fewest in the majors this season, so the Royals might not be able to exploit that weakness. In his one start against the Royals this season, Tillman pitched a five-hit shutout. The Royals put the ball in play, walking once and striking out three times, but they just could not put together enough hits in sequence to score a run.

Enjoy!

October 9, 2014

ALCS Preview, Royals Versus Orioles

The Royals travel to Baltimore to start the American League Championship Series Friday night. The Orioles finished with the second base record in the American League, while the Royals reached as the top wild card seed.

Here’s how the teams stack up offensively:

2014 Offensive Team numbers
Category	Royals	Orioles
Runs per Game	4.02 (9th)	4.35 (6th)
Batting Average	.263	.256
On Base Percentage	.314	.311
Slugging Percentage	.376	.422
Home Runs	95	211
SB-CS	153-36	44-20

It’s an interesting offensive matchup, as the Royals are better than the Orioles in many dimensions of offense, but don’t score as much due to the lack of home runs. The Royals own a higher OBP due to their ability to collect hits. (The Royals were last in walks drawn in the AL in 2014, but the Orioles only drew 21 more walks to rank 13th.) With their combination of doubles, triples and stolen base, the Royals are slightly better at getting their men on base into scoring position. It also may come as a shock to you that the Orioles were credited with two more sacrifice hits than the Royals in 2014, since a lot has been written about the Royals bunting.

During the regular season, Kansas City won the series 4-3, greatly limiting Baltimore’s power. The Orioles posted a .225/.266/.297 slash line against with four home runs, while the Royals came in at .257/307/336 with three home runs, but 10 doubles to Baltimore’s three. The Royals were five for five in steals, while Baltimore did not attempt any.

Most of those games were early in the season before the Orioles caught fire. The Royals starters only had one non-quality start against Baltimore.

The following table shows the defensive side of the teams:

2014 Pitching numbers
Category	Royals	Orioles
ERA	3.51 (4th)	3.44 (3rd)
Strikeouts per 9 IP	7.2	7.2
Walks per 9 IP	2.7	2.9
Home Runs per 9 IP	0.8	0.9
BABIP Allowed	.292	.282
FIP	3.69	3.96

The Orioles finished with a lower team ERA, despite the Royals getting overall better results in the three true outcomes. Both teams finished with ERAs lower than their FIPs, indicating good defense behind the pitchers. The Royals, in terms if FIP, have a nearly 30 point advantage, indicating this is a much better staff. While the staffs strike out batters at the same rate, the Orioles batters collected 300 more strikeouts than the Royals in 2014 (what you might expect for two teams at the opposite end of the power spectrum). So the Royals pitchers can maximize their strikeouts, keeping the Orioles off base as much as possible. When the Orioles home runs come, a very low OBP allowed by the Royals will limit the damage.

The Orioles pitchers face a team that likes to put the ball in play. Since the Royals are not very good at hitting home runs, Baltimore pitchers can challenge them. Since the Orioles, like the Royals, have a great defense, Orioles pitchers should welcome balls in play.

Theses teams strike me as fairly evenly matched. Can the Orioles get enough men on base so their homers do lots of damage? Can the Royals find enough holes in the Orioles defense and generate enough movement on the bases to score a few runs? The Orioles power should win out, but there are a lot of ways the Royals can win, so I rate the Orioles chances of advancing to the World Series at 55%.

October 9, 2014

Latest Odds

Here are the latest odds to win the World Series from Bovada.

Odds to win the 2014 World Series
Baltimore Orioles 11/5
St. Louis Cardinals 13/5
San Francisco Giants 13/5
Kansas City Royals 13/4

For the ALCS:

Royals vs. Orioles
Series Price
Baltimore Orioles -140 (5/7)
Kansas City Royals +120 (6/5)

And for the NLCS:

Giants vs. Cardinals
Series Price
St. Louis Cardinals – 130 (10/13)
San Francisco Giants +110 (11/10)

Interesting that the Giants and Cardinals are even to win the World Series, but the Cardinals are given a better chance of winning the NLCS.