Albert Pujols could add five wins to the Angels lineup with his bat. Photo: John Cordes/Icon SMI

The series on team offense continues with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. LAnaheim finished seventeenth in the majors and tenth in the American League in offense last season, scoring 4.12 runs per game. There was over a 0.2 run drop from sixteenth to seventeeth. The two big drops separate the 2011 teams into three scoring groups. The Angels are at the top of the bottom.

The CBSSportsline probable batting order is the one manager Mike Scioscia is likely to write up this season. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

• Best lineup: 4.91 runs per game
• Probable lineup: 4.75 runs per game
• Worst lineup: 4.61 runs per game
• Regressed lineup: 4.41 runs per game

With the addition of Albert Pujols, the Angels should see a big boost in offense. The regressed line adds over 0.29 runs per game, or 47 runs on the season. If the Angels get the same pitching and defense as in 2011, they should win four or five more games with that scoring.

Note, however, it could be even better. Scioscia doesn’t even come close to an optimum lineup. Note that his worst three hitters are batting seven, nine, and one. While I don’t like batting catchers in the lead-off spot, Mike could replace Erick Aybar with Alberto Collaspo and bat Chris Iannetta ninth. Chris’s strength, his ability to get on base, is wasted surround by such poor players. He won’t be able to push runners along (because few will be on), and he’s not close enough to the power hitters to generate RBI opportunities for them.

The one saving grace for Scioscia’s lineup is that Aybar during his career does a better job of reaching base in the lead-off slot than overall. Maybe the selectivity of both Bobby Abreu and Albert Pujols will rub off on Erick.

You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.

Previous articles in this series:

• Explanation
• Boston Red Sox
• New York Yankees
• Texas Rangers
• Detroit Tigers
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Colorado Rockies
• Cincinnati Reds
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• Kansas City Royals
• Milwaukee Brewers
• New York Mets
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Baltimore Orioles
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Cleveland Indians

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