The series on team offense continues with the Milwaukee Brewers. Milwaukee finished eleventh in the majors and fifth in the National League in offense last season, scoring 4.45 runs per game.

The CBSSportsline probable batting order is the one manager Ron Roenicke is likely to write up this season. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. The numbers in the pitching slot come from the actual numbers posted in 2011 by Brewers hurlers. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

• Best lineup: 4.69 runs per game
• Probable lineup: 4.50 runs per game
• Worst lineup: 4.16 runs per game
• Regressed lineup: 4.22 runs per game

Roenicke did a very nice job with the lineup. The LAT agrees that Nyjer Morgan, Rickie Weeks, and Ryan Braun should be together. It agrees that Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart should bat fourth and fifth. It also agrees that Alex Gonzalez and Jonathan Lucroy should bat in front of the pitcher. The LAT however, would like to see the top three 9-1-2 instead of 1-2-3.

The tool sees a batting order as two sets of hitters, 9-2-1 and 4-5-6-7. It tends to put a weak hitter in the three slot and a very weak hitter in the eight slot. The 9-2-1 ordering gets the best hitters the most times at the plate, while using the nine hitter to table set in subsequent times through the order. The four-five hitters tend to serve as swing men, with enough power to pick up the great hitters at the top of the order, but also can set the table for the bottom. I would love to see Roenicke try a pitcher hitting eighth lineup with this team.

Part of how this order gets constructed does depend on the perception of how Mat Gamel is likely to hit. Gamel posted outstanding numbers in the minor leagues, but his four short stints in the majors disappointed. At seasonal age 26, he should be at the top of his game, and maybe a full season in the majors can help him realize his potential. If he could get on base at a .350 with power, the Brewers offense will be looking much better. There still will be a hole in the bottom third as Alex Gonzalez and Lucroy offer easy outs in front of the pitchers, but plenty of offenses get by with five good hitters, let alone six.

You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.

Previous articles in this series:

• Explanation
• Boston Red Sox
• New York Yankees
• Texas Rangers
• Detroit Tigers
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Colorado Rockies
• Cincinnati Reds
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• Kansas City Royals

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