Matthew Cerrone notes the Mets have to go 45-20 the rest of the season to have a shot at the playoffs:

The Mets begin a 10–game homestand tonight.

The first series will be four games against the Rockies, who lead the Mets by 7.5 games for the Wild Card race.

The Mets need to win this series, it’s that simple.

The thing is, it’s not just these 10 home games, it’s the next 28 games, during which 21 will be in Citi Field.

What’s more, most of the 28 games are against teams they are chasing, as well as the lowly D-Backs and Padres.

In other words, in the mode of Lloyd Christmas, there is a chance, because if the Mets can win a bulk of these next 28 games, they will also be tacking on losses for the very teams they are chasing.

The schedule gives them a chance to win, but exactly how do they get there? There’s a reason the team is five games under .500. Without their stars, they’re not very good. Teams that go 45-20, .692 ball, are teams that score a lot more runs than their opponents. The Mets are not going to get there scoring 4.26 runs per game and allowing 4.66.

If they stay at 4.26 runs per game, they need to allow 2.84 runs per game (that’s not ERA, that total runs) to get to .692. If they stay at 4.66 runs allowed per game, they need to score 6.98 runs per game to end up 45-20. Even with every one healthy on offense, the Mets don’t have that kind of fire power.

A more realistic goal is to bring their run scoring up to five runs a game and their runs allowed down to four runs a game. That would mean a .610 winning percentage, and a 40-25 record. That’s 86 wins, and if they can at least beat the teams in front of them, maybe they have a chance. Forty five wins would certainly be a 40-year miracle.