For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages versus starting pitchers:
- 0.341, 0.723 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting at Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.332, 0.708 — Tommy Pham batting at Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.327, 0.708 — Nick Gonzales batting at Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.318, 0.694 — Spencer Horwitz batting at Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.310, 0.690 — Bryan Reynolds batting at Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.310, 0.683 — Liover Peguero batting at Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.308, 0.734 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Matthew Liberatore.
- 0.304, 0.678 — Joey Bart batting at Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.299, 0.667 — Andrew McCutchen batting at Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.290, 0.697 — Manny Machado batting vs. Matthew Liberatore.
- 0.290, 0.683 — Austin Hays batting vs. Bryce Elder.
It’s pick your favorite Pirate day, as pretty much anyone can get a hit against Senzatela, and the teams are playing in Denver.
The NN produces this list of players with a high probability of collecting at least one hit:
- 0.308, 0.734 — Luis Arraez batting vs. Matthew Liberatore.
- 0.341, 0.723 — Isiah Kiner-Falefa batting at Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.332, 0.708 — Tommy Pham batting at Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.327, 0.708 — Nick Gonzales batting at Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.290, 0.697 — Manny Machado batting vs. Matthew Liberatore.
- 0.318, 0.694 — Spencer Horwitz batting at Antonio Senzatela.
- 0.281, 0.694 — Jonathan Aranda batting vs. Clayton Kershaw.
- 0.285, 0.692 — Amed Rosario batting at Janson Junk.
- 0.287, 0.692 — Cody Bellinger batting at Janson Junk.
- 0.310, 0.690 — Bryan Reynolds batting at Antonio Senzatela.
Arraez owns a thirteen game hit streak, the longest currently in the majors. Pham and Machado are near the top of the list as well. Kiner-Falefa and Pham are the consensus double down pair.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!
Can someone explain how Yandy Diaz counted as a pass in last night’s game?
Yandy was pulled and never had an official AB so it’s a pass.
Wasn’t he hit by a pitch in the first inning? That would not count as an at bat? Was it on the first pitch and that would be why?
A HBP is equivalent to a walk, not an At Bat.
Thank you Dave Pinto! Learning more and more about baseball by playing this game!