For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top projected hit averages against starting pitchers:
- 0.314 — Jacob Wilson batting against Jack Kochanowicz.
- 0.310 — Austin Riley batting against Trevor Williams.
- 0.307 — Drake Baldwin batting against Trevor Williams.
- 0.300 — Miguel Andujar batting against Jack Kochanowicz.
- 0.290 — Eli White batting against Trevor Williams.
- 0.284 — Aaron Judge batting against Jacob deGrom.
- 0.283 — Trea Turner batting against Carson Palmquist.
- 0.283 — Nico Hoerner batting against Max Meyer.
- 0.282 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Logan Webb.
- 0.278 — Kerry Carpenter batting against Andre Pallante.
- 0.278 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Trevor Williams.
It looks like the Braves should hit Williams well. Note that Wilson left the Athletics game Tuesday night after a hit by pitch, but x-rays proved negative.
The NN produces this list of batters with a high probability of collecting a hit:
- 0.276, 0.720 — Luis Arraez batting against Kevin Gausman.
- 0.314, 0.720 — Jacob Wilson batting against Jack Kochanowicz.
- 0.300, 0.717 — Miguel Andujar batting against Jack Kochanowicz.
- 0.284, 0.716 — Aaron Judge batting against Jacob deGrom.
- 0.282, 0.709 — Bobby Witt Jr. batting against Logan Webb.
- 0.271, 0.706 — Jackson Merrill batting against Kevin Gausman.
- 0.283, 0.706 — Trea Turner batting against Carson Palmquist.
- 0.310, 0.698 — Austin Riley batting against Trevor Williams.
- 0.268, 0.693 — Brendan Donovan batting against Brant Hurter.
- 0.255, 0.693 — Freddie Freeman batting against Corbin Burnes.
Arraez owns a cyborg batting line against Gausman, seven for nine with a double, no walks, no strikeouts. He beats out Wilson for first place on the fourth digit, .7200 to 7197. Wilson is the consensus top pick if he plays, with Andujar the consensus double down pick.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!