Yesterday Tom Tango asked about doing lineup analysis based on platoon differences. In other words, how should the Phillies lineup change if a right-handed pitcher or a left-handed pitcher started?
I didn’t have time to do a Marcels for pitcher handedness (although that’s something I might add in the future). So I figured up the splits for the last three years with no regression, and no adjusting for recency or age. Here are the results.
The players who change slots the greatest distance are Alec Bohm and Brandon Marsh. Bohm goes from the bottom of the order against righties to cleanup against lefties. Marsh is a two or five hole hitter against righties, eighth against lefties (the LAT usually puts the worst hitters eighth).
The problem is that ballplayers are not Strat-o-matic cards. When I am in a playoff situation in SOM, I figure out the OBP and Slugging against the starting pitcher and adjust my lineup accordingly. Real batters like comfort and consistency. Bryce Harper wants to bat third, even though against any pitcher he is the best lead-off candidate on the team. The Phillies could get away with swapping Marsh and Bohm, since they are so extreme. Maybe bat them fifth and eighth, swapping depending on the pitcher.
It would be nice if the slot didn’t matter to a hitter. Until it doesn’t managers need to lineup platoon carefully.
Platoon lineups worked better back when pitchers didn’t take up half the roster (and when starting pitchers went deeper). Now, if you could flip lineup spots during the game when pitching changes were made (switching Bohm and Marsh being a good example), it would be a great strategy. Something for Manfred to try out?