For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit.
Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.
The Log5 Method yields these top picks:
- 0.361 — Nico Hoerner batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.337 — Luis Arraez batting against Zack Greinke.
- 0.320 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Dean Kremer.
- 0.319 — Nick Madrigal batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.319 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.317 — Ian Happ batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.310 — Rafael Devers batting against Mitch Keller.
- 0.304 — P.J. Higgins batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.304 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Mitch Keller.
- 0.304 — Christopher Morel batting against Patrick Corbin.
It’s often a good day for hitters when Corbin takes the mound. Hoerner often appears near the top of these lists, so facing a hittable pitcher puts him in the stratosphere.
Here are the NN picks:
- 0.361, 0.750 — Nico Hoerner batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.337, 0.747 — Luis Arraez batting against Zack Greinke.
- 0.320, 0.729 — Lourdes Gurriel batting against Dean Kremer.
- 0.319, 0.727 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Kyle Freeland.
- 0.301, 0.725 — Jose Iglesias batting against Jose Quintana.
- 0.310, 0.716 — Rafael Devers batting against Mitch Keller.
- 0.304, 0.711 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Mitch Keller.
- 0.266, 0.707 — Trea Turner batting against Brandon Woodruff.
- 0.319, 0.706 — Nick Madrigal batting against Patrick Corbin.
- 0.300, 0.702 — Raimel Tapia batting against Dean Kremer.
The two systems agree on the top three hitters today, so your double down bet is Hoerner and Arraez.
You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!