Ronald Blum of the AP kicks off the gloom and doom season of the CBA negotations:

Baseball’s ninth work stoppage and first in 26 years appears almost certain to start Dec. 2, freezing the free-agent market and threatening the start of spring training in February.

Negotiations have been taking place since last spring, and each side thinks the other has not made proposals that will lead toward an agreement replacing the five-year contract that expires at 11:59 p.m. EST on Dec. 1.

Chron.com

It never ceases to amaze me that after years and years contract negotiations, sports writers still don’t realize how they work. The expiration of the current CBA is not the same as a deadline for a work stoppage. Either side can say, “If an agreement is not reached by this date, we strike/lockout.” That’s actually good, since it puts a time limit on getting things done.

Negotiations are not a smooth series of give and take. There tend to be lots of little deals made along the way, and the big stuff waits until the last minute. That’s because the best deal you will get (on either side) is the deal that comes through at the last minute. So you will hear on the morning of whatever deadline is set, that both sides are too far apart. Hours later, you’ll either hear, “We reached an agreement,” or “we extended the deadline to tomorrow because we are really close.”

Why will it go down that way?

There is too much money on the table!

At the end of the day, good baseball players are millionaires. Great baseball players are multi-millionaires. The owners are swimming in money. Franchise values are high, and most clubs have developed multiple revenue streams. Even after a down year in 2020, the wins against the union in the last two CBA negotiations give MLB plenty of leeway to meet the wants of the union. They won’t give it way, however.

So when you hear about how the negotiations are going nowhere, take it with a grain of salt. No one wants to give up all that money.