The Braves visit the Astros Tuesday to kick-off the World Series. Here is a comparison of the offenses:
| Offense (League Ranks) | Atlanta Braves (NL) | Houston Astros (AL) |
| Runs per Game | 4.91 (3rd) | 5.33 (1st) |
| Batting Average | .244 (5th-T) | .267 (1st) |
| On Base Percentage | .319 (6th) | .339 (1st) |
| Slugging Average | .435 (2nd) | .444 (3rd) |
| Home Runs | 239 (2nd) | 221 (5th) |
| Stolen Base Percentage | 76% (8th) | 77% (9th) |
Both offenses produce runs at a high rate. The Astros own a better tool box; they can collect hits, walks, and hit for power. The Braves depend more on the power aspect of the game, especially the home run. In looking at the number keep in mind that Atlanta produced those with a pitcher batting. Truist Park is a good stadium for homers, but beating a top AL in home runs is impressive.
Extra-base hits matter in the post season. Most teams that get this far employee good pitchers, making runs scarce. The more efficiently teams produce runs, the more likely they are to score a few, and extra-base hits in general lead to efficient offenses.
Here is a comparison of the pitching and defense.
| Pitching and Defense (League Ranks) | Atlanta Braves (NL) | Houston Astros (AL) |
| Runs Allowed per Game | 4.07 (4th) | 4.06 (3rd) |
| Earned Run Average | 3.88 (4th) | 3.76 (4th) |
| Strikeouts per 9 IP | 9.0 (7th) | 9.1 (6th-T) |
| Walks per 9 IP | 3.3 (6th) | 3.4 (10th) |
| Home Runs per 200 IP | 25.9 (6th) | 25.9 (3rd-T) |
| Defensive Efficiency | .708 (3rd-T) | .713 (1st) |
The pitching staffs are on par. Even though the two teams allowed the same rate of home runs, the Astros ranked higher as the AL hits more home runs than the NL. So the strength of the Astros staff goes directly against the strength of the Braves hitters. The one problem here, however, is that one of the Astros best at preventing home runs, Lance McCuller Jr, will likely miss the World Series due to injury.
Both teams play good defense, and we saw how much that helped Atlanta in the NLCS.
Another advantage for the Braves should be four games in an AL park where the Braves get to use a designated hitter. That means for four games, they get Jorge Soler, Eddie Rosario, and Joc Pederson in the lineup.
The current World Series odds from www.BetOnline.ag look like this:
World Series Current Odds
Atlanta Braves +115 (23/20)
Houston Astros -135 (20/27)
Which imply the Astros have a 57.4% chance of winning, the Braves a 46.5% chance of winning. I think 57.4% is too high. The Braves probability would put the Astros at 53.5, and that’s about where I’d put them. If I’m doing this right, the vig only pays for the bookies if the Braves win. So at the moment, the odds would push people toward betting on the Braves. That would be a win-win for the bettors and the bookies.
I have to agree. The Astros may be the better team, but they are not that much better. I’d say they have a 52% chance of winning the World Series, in which case, a bet at .465 is a good bet. I’m picking the Astros, but it should be close.