For the past few years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. MLB is not offering the game during the short 2020 season, but people indicated they can still use the data. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

Here are the NN picks:

• 0.298 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Kevin Gausman.
• 0.284 — Daniel Murphy batting against Kevin Gausman.
• 0.284 — Trevor Story batting against Kevin Gausman.
• 0.281 — David Dahl batting against Kevin Gausman.
• 0.278 — Nolan Arenado batting against Kevin Gausman.
• 0.276 — Michael Brantley batting against Madison Bumgarner.
• 0.275 — Matt Kemp batting against Kevin Gausman.
• 0.270 — Francisco Lindor batting against Tyler Mahle.
• 0.266 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Tyler Mahle.
• 0.266 — Howie Kendrick batting against Steven Matz.

It looks like a good day to be a Rockies batter. Batters are 12 for 35 against Gausman this season. He walked one and struck out ten in 37 PA, so when bats meet his pitches, good outcomes happen.

The NN picks:

• 0.298, 0.713 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Kevin Gausman.
• 0.276, 0.699 — Michael Brantley batting against Madison Bumgarner.
• 0.284, 0.690 — Daniel Murphy batting against Kevin Gausman.
• 0.284, 0.689 — Trevor Story batting against Kevin Gausman.
• 0.281, 0.687 — David Dahl batting against Kevin Gausman.
• 0.266, 0.687 — Howie Kendrick batting against Steven Matz.
• 0.278, 0.687 — Nolan Arenado batting against Kevin Gausman.
• 0.259, 0.682 — Wilmer Flores batting against German Marquez.
• 0.263, 0.681 — Donovan Solano batting against German Marquez.
• 0.250, 0.680 — Jeff McNeil batting against Patrick Corbin.
• 0.264, 0.680 — Whit Merrifield batting against Kyle Hendricks.

The two systems agree on Blackmon, with Murphy the consensus second choice.

You can follow the NN results on this spreadsheet. I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!