The division previews continue with the AL Central. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use Baseball-Reference WAR from 2019, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2019. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. When we know how many game will be played, you can adjust accordingly. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Minnesota Twins

• Position Player WAR: 30.2
• Pitcher Total: 17.0
• Core Total: 47.2

The Twins core total of 47.2 WAR stands first in the majors, barring an AL West team doing better. This is a team without a superstar, but a plethora of stars. Four position players and two pitchers posted a WAR of 4.0 or better in 2019, including recent addition Josh Donaldson. Mitch Garver just missed the mark at 3.9 WAR. This should give the Twins resiliency. If one or two of their stars go down with an injury, there is still plenty of star talent to carry the team into the playoffs. Their position player and pitcher core WARs are both the highest in the division.

On top of that, the position player WAR is more likely a floor than a ceiling. Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Bryon Buxton, and Max Kepler are all in the middle of their primes. Luis Arraez sees his prime start in two years. The Twins could easily be the next baseball dynasty.

Cleveland Indians

• Position Player WAR: 21.0
• Pitcher Total: 13.8
• Core Total: 34.8

The Indians, like the Twins also boast a number of star players. Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Mike Clevinger, and Shane Bieber all topped four WAR, Bieber breaking the five mark. Cleveland, however, lacks the depth of the Twins, with five players at one WAR or less.

There is reason to be optimistic that things will improve. Jose Ramirez suffered an off year, but he is in the middle of his prime. Outfielders Oscar Mercado and Franmil Reyes are still young, as is Shane Bieber. They are in a tough fight with the Twins, but this is a young, talented, experienced team that should continue to play well.

Chicago White Sox

• Position Player WAR: 23.5
• Pitcher Total: 10.9
• Core Total: 34.4

The White Sox rebuild nears completion this season as appear to be poised for a huge increase in their winning percentage this season. They feature three players who post WAR above five last season. Their stars are a bit higher quality than Minnesota and Cleveland and more concentrated.

The acquisitions of Yasmani Grandal and Edwin Encarnacion adds about eight WAR to the team, while veteran pitchers Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonazalez bring in another two WAR.

The trade for Lucas Giolito may turn out to be one of the better two-way deals. Adam Eaton helped Washington to their first World Championship, and Giolito emerged as a true ace in 2019 for the White Sox.

On the down side Tim Anderson posted a 2019 well above his career norms. On the other hand, there was a tangible adjustment he made going into the season that should carry over.

The White Sox should be an above .500 team this season. They should be able to compete for a wild card, and if everything breaks right, the division.

Kansas City Royals

• Position Player WAR: 12.5
• Pitcher Total: 6.1
• Core Total: 18.6

The Royals come into the season with the lowest pitcher core WAR in the division. In general, both on the pitcher and position player side, they just use too many sub zero WAR players. Five of the sixteen players posted negative WARs in 2019.

One place where they should be able to improve without much effort is first base. Ryan O’Hearn followed up a short but good 2018 debut with a 2019 season compiling batting stats that would have been poor for a catcher. A hard hitting, two WAR first baseman would add three wins to this total.

This is a team with a few good players, but unless their minor league systems throws a lot of talent into the majors suddenly, they are not going to compete for a playoff spot.

Detroit Tigers

• Position Player WAR: 4.6
• Pitcher Total: 11.7
• Core Total: 16.3

The good news is the Tigers own a decent rotation. While they lack stars, all of their pitchers would be a good third or fourth starter in a quality rotation. In many ways, they have more depth than the White Sox or the Indians.

The problem lies with the position players. No one owns a WAR that reaches 2.0. Nico Goodrum posted the best value at 1.9, and he’ll play this season as a 28-year-old, not someone you would expect to to improve much. The once great Miguel Cabrera now performs like a replacement player, and he still owned $132 million dollars. Note that this was an unforced error by the Tigers, as they signed the extension two seasons before the current contract would expire.

The Tigers will likely be better than 2019 simply because teams in general just are not that bad. They should crack 60 wins, but not by much.

Predictions

Here is how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division.

• Minnesota Twins 55%
• Cleveland Indians 17%
• Chicago White Sox 15%
• Kansas City Royals 2%
• Detroit Tigers 1%

The Twins should dominate the division. Due to two are poor franchises playing in the division, I can see Cleveland and Chicago picking up enough wins to carry the two wild card slots. In a shorter season, this could be an excellent three-team race.